Lesson No. 1: Fine-tune your BS detector. CEOs of publicly traded companies are typically measured in what they say about their companies - or, in the case of biotech and pharmaceutical companies, what they say about their drugs. They'll tell you what the data shows and will of course be bullish, but they won't say definitively that a drug is safe and effective until the FDA says it is. The guy I talked to was so cocky about his drug, alarm bells should have been ringing. If you ever hear a biotech CEO talking exuberantly and definitively about a drug that has not finished clinical trials yet, be wary. Lesson No. 2: Look at the data. When it comes to clinical trials, understand what the data shows. A drug may have shown effectiveness in an early trial, but if the number of participants was low or if the study wasn't double-blind (where neither the patients nor the doctors know who is getting the drug), the data may not be accurate. That doesn't mean the drug doesn't work. Many successful blockbusters started with a small trial. But you should temper your expectations until a larger, more rigorous trial is conducted, because lots of failed drugs started with a small trial too. Lesson No. 3: Stick to your stops. I've always been disciplined when it comes to trading. When a stop is hit, I sell - no matter how bullish I am. (In some cases, after I sell the stock, I may look for a better opportunity to buy it again later.) When you're upset about potentially getting stopped out, it's too easy to make excuses and justify why you should stay in a trade. Stops take the emotion out of trading, and that's the single most important thing you can do to improve your results. Honor your stops. The Cost of Learning Everyone makes mistakes and pays "tuition" - the cost of learning - when they start trading. I certainly have. Luckily, this one wasn't costly at the time. But the lessons I learned helped shape the way I invest and trade - especially in the biotech and pharma sectors. The next time you hear a CEO talking about their company, ask yourself whether the statement is equivalent to the "it's not water" declaration. If it is, don't just walk away - run. Good investing, Marc P.S. These tips don't just help me avoid the biotech land mines... They help me hone in on the stocks with the best chance to SOAR. The revolutionary company I've nicknamed "Nvidia's favorite biotech" is a prime example. Any day now, a highly anticipated announcement from the company could be the trigger that turns modest investments into colossal fortunes... and thrusts the entire AI biotech revolution into overdrive. I share more details in this video briefing. |
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