Friday, December 15, 2023

The fascinating race to replace George Santos

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Dec 15, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

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DRIVING THE DAY

TALK OF THIS TOWN — DONALD TRUMP is accused of swiping National Archives property. But MELANIA TRUMP is set to star today in a killer photo op at the Archives: A naturalization ceremony. How did this come to be? Michael Schaffer has the details.

KEVIN GOES HOME ALONE — “McCarthy says a ‘bittersweet’ goodbye,” by Mia McCarthy

George Santos walks past two photographers.

Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) walks to the House chamber for a vote on a resolution to expel him from Congress at the U.S. Capitol on Dec. 1, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE NEXT CANDIDATE WASHINGTON WILL OBSESS OVER — You may not know New York’s third congressional district by name. But you almost certainly know the man who, until recently, represented it in Congress: GEORGE SANTOS.

Now that the Republican fabulist has been expelled from the chamber, the special election to succeed him is shaping up into one of the season’s most watched battles — a Feb. 13 election that both sides are poised to pour money into.

For Republicans, it offers the possibility of a bit more breathing room (at the moment, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON can only afford to lose three votes on any legislation) as well as a chance to imbue a Republican with some of the advantages of incumbency before Democrats redraw the district.

For Democrats, it’s the chance to flip a GOP-held swing seat — which could give them a boost of momentum (or, at the very least, media coverage suggesting they have momentum) in the first congressional election of 2024. (If they win, expect to hear talk about Dem enthusiasm being underestimated; if they lose, expect to hear that this race doesn’t really mean anything at all, and was a GOP-held seat.)

Yesterday, Republicans picked their candidate, and she has one of the more genuinely unique backgrounds you’ll see this cycle. MAZI MELESA PILIP is an Ethiopian-born Jew who fled to Israel as a child and served in the Israeli Defense Forces before immigrating to the U.S.

She’s a mother of seven. 

She’s a sitting Nassau County legislator. 

She’s also enrolled as a Democratic voter, as POLITICO uncovered.

“The fact that she’s a Democrat, that actually could be a plus because that is more of a Democratic district,” former Rep. PETE KING (R-N.Y.) told our Emily Ngo. (Of course, if Nassau voters want to elect a Democrat, wouldn’t it just be simpler to vote for her Democratic opponent, former Rep. TOM SUOZZI?)

THE WEST SIDE’S STORY — As things start to wind down as the holiday break nears, at least one person in Washington had a full day yesterday: CORNEL WEST.

The independent presidential candidate kicked off his Thursday with a 9 a.m. breakfast with reporters, followed by an on-the-record roundtable interview at POLITICO, an afternoon endorsement pitch to the Teamsters and an evening fundraiser and cocktail hour in Adams Morgan. Here’s some of what he told us …

On JOE BIDEN’s nomination: “I'm not even sure whether I’ll be running against Biden. Biden — I think he’s going to have an LBJ moment [and] pull back. … I'm just saying that I'm open to those possibilities, given the fluidity of the situation. He's running out of gas.”

On DONALD TRUMP: A “bonafide gangsta, neo-fascist pied piper leading the country [to] a second civil war.”

On Biden: A “milquetoast neoliberal with military adventurism, possibly leading the world toward World War III.”

On the notion his own candidacy could “spoil” the election for Biden: “I don't accept the ‘spoiler’ category. … There might be slices of people [who say] ‘If I didn't vote for West, I would have voted for Biden.’ But that's not — to me — a spoiler. If you're in a race, and you make a case, and they vote for you, how do you become the spoiler?” Read more from Brittany Gibson and Brakkton Booker

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

GOOD QUESTION — “Israel protest letters have grabbed headlines. But how real are they?” by WaPo’s Paul Farhi

 

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LET’S MAKE A DEAL — So much for an early Christmas break. As negotiations plow forward and the vague outline of a deal linking Ukraine aid and security on the US-Mexico border comes into view, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER confirmed yesterday that he’s shortening the chamber’s planned holiday recess and keeping senators in town next week, Burgess Everett, Anthony Adragna and Jen Haberkorn report.

The thinking: “The border discussions are still exceedingly complicated and there’s no guarantee that negotiators … can clinch a deal. But Democrats felt leaving for a three-week recess was too dangerous given the uncertainty ahead for Ukraine.”

What Schumer is saying: The upper chamber will vote on President Biden’s supplemental request next week, in hopes that there’s a framework border agreement in place.

What many Republicans are saying: Negotiators are nowhere close on a deal, and several “complained about the tactical decision to keep trying when it’s not even clear the House will take the legislation up. Others said it’s possible some senators wouldn’t show up next week.”

What the negotiators themselves are saying: “I can see the deal,” Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) told our Capitol Hill team yesterday. “We have a lot to go to get there. But I can see it.”

Sinema may see it, but whether it will manifest into a real enough form that anyone else sees it remains the million-dollar question (or, if you’re Ukraine, the $60 billion question).

A reality check from the House: “Speaker Mike Johnson, who is not involved in the border talks, threw cold water on the idea of quick action. ‘The House will not wait around to receive and debate a rushed product,’ he said in a statement on Thursday night,” NYT’s Karoun Demirjian writes.

Related read: “Drastic border restrictions considered by Biden and the Senate reflect seismic political shift on immigration,” by CBS News’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez and Ed O'Keefe

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: JAMES ROMOSER AND BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN — Presidential politics is rarely uncontaminated by what’s going on in Congress, the courts, and at the Department of Justice. But next year really will be different. 2024 will be defined by the collision of politics and the law. The political fortunes of Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be affected by decisions made in the Supreme Court, by district judges in Washington and Florida, by local officials in Georgia and New York, by congressional inquiries, and by federal prosecutors, to an extent that is unique in the history of presidential campaigns.

To help make sense of it all, Ryan got together with colleagues James Romoser, himself a lawyer, and also POLITICO’s legal editor; and Betsy Woodruff Swan, who’s been on the Hunter and DOJ beat. In their conversation, Betsy and James highlight the relatively unknown figures who emerged in 2023 who are likely to have an enormous influence on 2024; they reassess the conventional wisdom that everyone may be getting wrong about the politics of the Trump trials; and they dig through everything you need to know about Hunter Biden. Listen to the full conversation on this week’s episode of Playbook Deep Dive.

WAKE UP, READ PLAYBOOK — We have an exciting update for Playbook readers: Starting Dec. 18, all Playbook subscribers will also receive Playbook PM every Monday through Friday. As a member of the Playbook community, you will get a double dose of scoops, storylines and analysis every weekday as we enter a newsy election year. No need to take action: You will receive your first PM edition on the 18th if you aren’t subscribed already. Thank you for being a part of the Playbook community.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate is in. The House is out.

3 things to watch …

  1. The Senate is coming back next week to deal with a potential Ukraine-border deal, yes, but there are other bits of unfinished business senators will need to attend to. For one, FAA authorization expires on Dec. 31, which means action will be needed on a House-passed extension to March 8. Also, there’s no deal yet for the confirmations of 11 four-star military nominees who remain in limbo due to Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) holds.
  2. One matter the Senate probably won’t be settling any time soon: School milk standards. The House on Wednesday overwhelmingly passed a bill that would allow milk containing more than 1% fat in schools for the first time in a decade. Sen. ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kan.) tried yesterday to advance the bill through the Senate by unanimous consent, but he was blocked by Agriculture Committee Chair DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.), who said the decision should be left to the USDA. 
  3. Everyone’s watching to see if the Senate can unlock a supplemental, but there’s lower-key spending drama afoot: Appropriators need to agree on topline spending figures sometime over the holiday break if they want any chance of passing fiscal 2024 appropriations bills before the first deadline hits on Jan. 19. “If there's not some movement over the holiday, while we're gone, there simply won't be enough time,” Rep. TOM COLE (R-Okla.) told Caitlin Emma.

At the White House

Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will have lunch in the afternoon.

Harris and Second Gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host a holiday reception in the evening.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

TRUMP CARDS

Attorney Sidney Powell speaks to the press about various lawsuits related to the 2020 election, inside the Republican National Committee headquarters on Nov. 19, 2020 in Washington, D.C.

Attorney Sidney Powell speaks to the press inside the Republican National Committee headquarters on Nov. 19. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

SORRY NOT SORRY? — Who says contrition can’t be concise? Two of the court-mandated handwritten apology letters from defendants in the sprawling Fulton County election interference case were just one line long, The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tamar Hallerman and Greg Bluestein scoop. The outlet obtained the letters from defendants KENNETH CHESEBRO, SIDNEY POWELL and SCOTT HALL yesterday, with Powell's letter written on notebook paper simply stating, “I apologize for my actions in connection with the events in Coffee County.”

The details: “The trio — along with a fourth defendant, JENNA ELLIS — were required to pen the letters as part of the terms of their plea agreements with Fulton prosecutors earlier this fall. Chesebro could be seen writing his from the defense table in the minutes before he accepted his deal in front of Fulton Superior Court Judge SCOTT McAFEE. But the letters have been stuck in limbo ever since, first sealed by McAfee and then stuck in a bottleneck with other court officials.”

More top reads: 

  • Top Michigan Republicans told a state district judge yesterday that former President Trump’s campaign was directly involved in making and distributing a fake certificate falsely claiming that he won the 2020 presidential election in the state, The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger reports: “While the Trump campaign has previously been tied to the overall strategy of crafting electoral certificates in seven battleground states, the testimony Thursday described campaign staffers as being involved in recruiting attendees and running the meeting of the false electors in Lansing on Dec. 14, 2020.” 
  • ​​”How Criticizing Trump Reshaped a Key Republican House Primary,” by The Messenger’s Dan Merica 

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

ISRAEL-HAMAS LATEST — As both Israeli and Palestinian officials report some of the highest death tolls since the start of the conflict in Gaza, White House National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN reportedly told Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and members of the war cabinet during a meeting yesterday that Israel's conflict in Gaza must "transition to the next lower intensity phase in a matter of weeks, not months,” Axios’ Barak Ravid reports.

In the room: ‘U.S. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters that Sullivan ‘asked hard questions about what the next phase is going to look like,’ told Netanyahu that the transition to low intensity operations needs to happen ‘in the near future’ … [and] pressed Netanyahu and the members of the war cabinet on the timetable and details on planning for when the low intensity phase of the war is going to start.”

Related read: “US has collected intel it could use to judge Israel’s conduct of war,” by By Erin Banco, Nahal Toosi and Alexander Ward

SPY GAMES — “Ex-FBI counterintelligence official gets over 4 years in prison for aiding Russian oligarch,” by AP’s Larry Neumeister

2024 WATCH

LEDE OF THE DAY — “Republicans keep trying to come up with a coherent message on abortion. And real life keeps intruding.”

Madison Fernandez is up with a look at how Republicans candidates' attempts to reach a moderate ground on abortion on the campaign trail amid the backdrop of real-world events — like the Texas abortion case — have underscored how the issue has divided the party: “Republicans have long struggled with how to message on abortion and are scrambling to figure out how to retool their strategy as 2024 approaches.”

Worth noting: “Top strategists are already bracing for the familiar Democratic attack that the GOP doesn’t care about women’s access to health care. … KELLYANNE CONWAY, a former Trump aide, even went to Capitol Hill this week to urge Republicans to pivot — talk less about banning abortion and more about protecting access to contraception.”

 

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THE WHITE HOUSE

Joe Biden speaks.

President Joe Biden calls and texts his son to check in on him with increased frequency and urgency. | Andrew Harnik/AP

HUNTER THE HUNTED — Despite the resolute public persona that President Biden puts up as his son, Hunter, faces down a number of legal threats, “privately, fears about the upcoming campaign and potential criminal trial have become an ever-present weight on the president, according to those close to him,” our colleague Jonathan Lemire reports from Wilmington, Delaware.

Biden’s concern for his son “has only grown since he took office, according to aides and confidants — five in total — all of whom were granted anonymity to speak about private conversations,” Jonathan writes. “The elder Biden has told friends he worries that his son could even backslide into addiction.” In an effort to avoid that, the president “has asked some of his closest friends — those he has known for decades from Wilmington and Washington — to call or email his son themselves to check on him, so the younger Biden always knows he has a support system in place, according to two of the people asked to check in on the younger Biden.”

CONGRESS

WHAT SPEAKER JOHNSON IS READING — “Vulnerable House Republicans weigh risks of Biden impeachment probe,” by Nick Reisman and Sejal Govindarao: “House Republicans in swing districts are trapped between the wishes of their GOP base to move forward on an impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden and the risk of being portrayed as extremists as they defend their seats in the 2024 midterm elections.

“Vulnerable GOP members are trying to perform a high-stakes balancing act: Support the inquiry, but refrain from a full-throated endorsement of impeachment. … [Democrats] expect impeachment could provide fodder for ads to hit their Republican opponents in swing seats and create a clear opening to tie their opponents to former President Donald Trump in those battleground districts.”

WAR IN UKRAINE 

IN LIEU OF AID, TALK — After nearly two years of conflict with Russia, the European Union decided to begin membership discussions with the war-torn nation of Ukraine, marking a significant political victory for President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, WSJ’s Laurence Norman and Daniel Michaels report from Brussels. “The membership boost for Zelenskyy comes two days after he left Washington without pledges of fresh military support, which Ukraine urgently needs. … EU negotiations will take years and could be derailed along the way. It is also unclear when talks on Ukraine’s accession to the EU will start.”

Still … “[T]here was no breakthrough on an economic aid package meant to help secure Ukraine’s government finances for the next four years. Twenty-six of the bloc’s 27 member states supported the loan package but Hungary was again a holdout.”

Related read: “How the US keeps funding Ukraine’s military — even as it says it’s out of money,” by AP’s Lolita C. Baldor

POLICY CORNER

COMING SOON TO A BIDEN TV AD — ”Older Americans to pay less for some drug treatments as drugmakers penalized for big price jumps,” by AP’s Amanda Seitz: “The White House unveiled a list of 48 drugs — from chemotherapy treatments to growth hormones used to treat endocrine disorders — whose prices increased faster than the rate of inflation this year. Under a new law, drugmakers will have to pay rebates to the federal government because of those price increases. The money will be used to lower the price Medicare enrollees pay on the drugs early next year.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE — “Embattled Florida GOP chair demands buyout to quit, party members say” by WaPo’s Lori Rozsa: “Republican leaders in Florida are expressing outrage over a reported proposal that party chairman CHRISTIAN ZIEGLER be paid as much as $2 million before he’ll step down amid a sexual assault investigation. … Ziegler is battling to keep his powerful position despite dual scandals, one of which has also ensnared his wife, BRIDGET ZIEGLER, a Moms for Liberty co-founder who sits on the Sarasota County School Board.”

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Carl Hulse, Nikole Killion, Toluse Olorunnipa and Susan Page.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) … Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) … Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova … Chris Christie

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.). Panel: Geoff Bennett, Matt Gorman, Courtney Kube and Jen Psaki

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). Legal panel: Jonathan Turley, Tom Dupree and Elizabeth Wydra. Panel: Francesca Chambers, Charlie Hurt, Marc Short and Elizabeth Wydra

MSNBC “The Katie Phang Show”: Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.)

MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) … Jaime Harrison

ABC “This Week”: Nikki Haley … New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Panel: Donna Brazile, Averi Harper, Reince Priebus and Heidi Przybyla

CNN “State of the Union”: Chris Christie

CNN “Inside Politics Sunday”: Panel: Laura Barrón-López, Carl Hulse, Caroline Kitchener and Daniel Strauss

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Bob Menendez declined to discuss George Santos’ Cameo videos.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at a screening of “The Boys in the Boat” hosted by The Motion Picture Association with Amazon MGM and the British Embassy: British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Charlie Rivkin, Callum Turner, Grant Heslov, Megan Crawford, Catherine Collins, Emily Lenzner, Kevin Sullivan and Mary Jordan, Susan Koch, George Stevens. Jr., Rachel Martin, Ted Osius, Troy Dow, Mike Donilon, Stan McCoy, Artur Orkisz, Geoffrey Pyatt, Johanna Derlega, James Harris, Patrick Kane, Robin McGahey and Danijel Medan.

— SPOTTED at the annual Feldman Strategies holiday happy hour at 801 Restaurant and Bar: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich), Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich), Randi Weingarten, Sara Nelson, Kaylie Hanson, Sean Savett, Rodericka Applewhaite, Alli Gordon, Paul LeBlanc, Ianthe Metzger, Andrew Crook, Natalia Perez Santos, Taylor Garland, Jonah Furman, Olivia Cappello, Caroline Klein, Daniella Diaz, Danielle Mora, Caroline Wright, Jasmine Wright, Will Rasky, Matt Corridoni, Edward-Isaac Dovere, Michaela Johnson, Skye Perryman, Taylor Garland, Zak Hudak, Gary Grumbach, Alice Miranda Ollstein, Grace Panetta, Warren Rojas, Tom LoBianco, Nicole Gaudiano and Oriana Gonzalez. 

SPOTTED at a holiday happy hour for the Faith Angle Forum last night at the Jefferson Hotel: Josh Good, Carl Cannon, Christine Emba, Andy Ferguson, Shadi Hamid, Matt Kaminski, Miranda Kennedy, Meridith McGraw, Richard Miles, Ashley Parker, Kathleen Parker, Nicole Noyes, Will Saletan, Eugene Scott, Aaron Sherinian, Karen Tumulty, Mark Vlasic and Jon Ward.

MEDIA MOVE — Zak Hudak has been named politics coordinator for the CBS Political Unit for the 2024 campaign cycle. He was previously a politics reporter.

TRANSITIONS — Bully Pulpit Interactive has announced the acquisition of European consultancy firm BOLDT and is rebranding as Bully Pulpit International. … Jocelynne Simbana is now a senior associate at the Dewey Square Group’s Latinovations practice. She most recently was an associate at SKDK.

Karen Donfried and Michael Fuchs have joined WestExec Advisors as senior advisers. Donfried is currently a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and is a State alum. Mike is a special adviser at the Open Society Foundations and is a Biden White House and VP Kamala Harris alum.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Gabrielle Gould, executive director of the Democratic Women’s Caucus, and Brandon White, external relations associate at the U.N. Refugee Agency, recently welcomed Gideon James White-Gould. He came in at 7 lbs, 13 oz and 20 inches.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … Ruy Teixeira … retired Gen. John Allen (7-0) … Donna Brazile … POLITICO’s Isabel Dobrin and Mollie Parlini … CQ’s Valerie YurkAndrew Cote of BRINC Drones … Jim Dornan Lauren French of State … Heather BoothTara Corrigan of the Messina Group … Jeff Le of Conduent … Lenny Young of Rep. Julia Brownley’s (D-Calif.) office … Patrick Oakford … Fox News’ Griff Jenkins … Cheddar’s Kristen ScholerDanyell TremmelAndy Polesovsky Caroline Ponseti of Invariant … McCauley Mateja Greene Sarah SullivanMaggie Gau Robert BolandBrett Quick of the Crypto Council for Innovation … Bill Knapp Neri Zilber Chris Barron of Vigilant News Network (5-0) … Colton Snedecor of Rep. Ryan Zinke’s (R-Mont.) office

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