Tuesday, August 8, 2023

☢️Being Near the End Is Not the Same the End – Prepare for This Danger Now

Good morning. Traders expect interest rates are about near their peak. But being near the end may...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Traders expect interest rates are about near their peak. But being near the end may not mean the end. While the Federal Reserve has hinted at a further quarter-point rate hike this year, possibly at its next meeting, the steepening yield curve hints that higher rates may last for some time.

For large parts of the economy, that could be a problem. For instance, commercial real estate relies on refinancing properties every few years. Today, that would mean moving off of ultra-low rates and onto higher ones. And the housing market has locked up, with existing homeowners unwilling to move and get out of a 3 percent mortgage when they would then have to pay over 7 percent.

The higher for longer move could mean some more trouble with the banking sector, like we saw in the spring. Or more indebted companies like trucking firm Yellow going bankrupt. That's a sign for investors to be cautious, and focus on quality over making the biggest return possible right now. And it's also a sign that investors may want to start investing more in high-yielding fixed-income in the months ahead.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 35,473.13 +1.16%
S&P 4,518.44 +0.90%
NASDAQ 13,994.40 +0.61%
*As of market close
Markets rallied on Monday, reversing part of last week's big drop.
Oil dipped 0.4 percent, closing at $82.47 per barrel.
Gold dropped 0.2 percent, last going for $1,972 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded flat overall, with bitcoin at $29,103 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Investors Love AI, But They Haven't Forgotten This Profitable Tech Trend
Every few years, if less, investors find a new tech story to love. The past few years has seen interest shift to artificial intelligence, following an interest in the growth of electric vehicles, as well as blockchain and cryptocurrency technology.

One trend is a bit older, having been around for nearly 10 years. And as a more mature trend, it's leading to big cash flows and profits for companies embracing it now.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Boeing (BA)
Steven Mollenkopf, a director at Boeing (BA), recently added 850 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 29 percent, and came to a total cost of $201,450.

This marks the first insider buy at the airplane manufacturer this year. Last year saw Mollenkopf buy on two occasions, picking up nearly 1,800 shares. Another director bought 5,000 shares, and the company CEO bought 25,000 shares as well. There have been two small insider sales so far this year.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Intel (INTC)
Semiconductor manufacturer Intel (INTC) has been rallying this year, after investors wrote off the company last year for hotter plays in the chip market. One trader is betting that shares will continue higher through next spring.

That's based on the March 2024 $41 calls. With 220 days until expiration, 7,143 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 229, for a 31-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $2.11 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Traders Bet on Interest Rates Staying Higher for Longer

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds hit their highest level in over a decade, topping 4.06 percent. Traders are betting that interest rates will stay higher for longer overall, even as yields on shorter-term bonds have held steady. Overall, trader see interest rates near their peak, but likely to stay elevated for now.
Barbie Tops $1 Billion at Box Office

Three weeks following its release, the Barbie movie has grossed $1.03 billion worldwide. The movie was released through Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), and is based on the popular doll sold by Mattel (MAT). The toymaker is looking to convert other toys in its lineup into feature films.
Apple Prepares for iPhone 15 Launch

Apple (AAPL) is looking to launch its latest version of the iPhone, the 15, in late September. The product is a massive revenue generator for the company, and sales are often used as an early sign of consumer sentiment and spending. In the most recent quarter, iPhone sales were down by 2 percent.
PayPal Launches Stablecoin

Payment platform PayPal (PYPL) is launching its own stablecoin for payments and transfers. Tied one-to-one with the US dollar, PayPal USD (PYUSD) will be issued by Paxos Trust, and will allow increased functionality with other PayPal services such as storing and transferring money.
Lucid Cuts EV Prices

Electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid Group (LCID) is lowering the prices on its Air Luxury sedans. Some see the price drop as a sign that there may be trouble with demand. However, other EV manufacturers have lowered prices so far this year, including industry leader Tesla Motors (TSLA) with a series of price drops.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
MNST 5.616%
BKNG 5.401%
MELI 5.235%
GEN 4.826%
CCL 4.43%
BOTTOM
MRNA 6.771%
TSN 4.587%
HSIC 3.695%
ENPH 3.482%
GNRC 2.712%

Quote of the Day
People… seem more respectful of risk than they were before… lots of bears have been capitulating, which is often a sign that we're closer to the end of a rally than the beginning.
- Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, on why the market's uptrend may take a pause for a few weeks as investors reassess risks.

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