Thursday, July 13, 2023

👆Commodity Prices May Rise as Inflation Wanes

Good morning. Inflation continues to drop. That's generally good news, sending the market to new...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Inflation continues to drop. That's generally good news, sending the market to new highs for the year. Typically, when inflation drops down, so do commodity prices. But this time around, they may prove a bit stronger than expected.

That's for a variety of reasons. Oil is likely to trend higher thanks to a series of production cuts made by OPEC this year. Estimates are that inventories may drop by 2.8 million barrels per day by August.

And if the economy avoids a recession, commodities will be in demand for technologies such as electric vehicles. That bodes well for several metals, particularly the lithium needed for rechargeable batteries.

Overall, while prices may continue to decline, finding areas where prices could rise could lead to market-beating returns in the second half of the year. Investors should look for oversold opportunities in the commodity space.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 34,347.43 +0.25%
S&P 4,472.16 +0.74%
NASDAQ 13,918.96 +1.15%
*As of market close
Markets rallied on Wednesday, as inflation dropped to 3 percent year-over-year.
Oil rose 1.5 percent, closing at $75.94 per barrel.
Gold rallied 1.4 percent, last going for $1,964 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies trended slightly lower, with bitcoin at $30,280 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Buy Companies that Regulators Slap on the Wrist
Today's regulation heavy world mean that companies are often in the spotlight. That can include for actual wrongdoing or perceived wrongdoing. Big companies tend to get hit with seemingly large fines. But for companies that are large enough, even a big fine amounts to little more than a slap on the wrist.

Investors in these companies may see a few hits from time to time, but it's also a sign that a company can handle fines and fees.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: SecureWorks Corp (SCWX)
Neil Gagnon, a major holder at SecureWorks Corp (SCWX), recently bought 6,725 shares. The buy increased his holdings by less than 1 percent, and came to a total cost of $45,967.

Gagnon has been a regular and steady buyer of shares going back to June 2022. Going further back, several company insiders have also been buyers, including the company CEO and CFO. The last insider sale came from a fund that was a major holder in late 2021.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Coinbase (COIN)
Shares of cryptocurrency brokerage firm Coinbase (COIN) have surged over 60 percent in recent weeks amid talk of a bitcoin ETF being approved by the SEC. One trader sees a pullback in the weeks ahead.

That's based on the August $85 puts. With 35 days until expiration, 14,081 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 257, for a 55-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $9.15 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Inflation Declines for 12th Straight Month

Consumer prices rose by 3 percent year-over-year for the 12 months ending in June. That's a further decline from May's read of 3.9 percent. This marks a full year of declines in the average rate of inflation, with the lowest pace since March 2021. This month last year, inflation came in at 9 percent.
Lithium Demand Remains Strong

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that demand for lithium tripled between 2017 and 2022, with a 70 percent increase in demand for cobalt, and a 40 percent increase in demand for nickel. This demand is likely to continue growing in the coming years, as these commodities are crucial for electric vehicle production.
Farmers Insurance Leaves Florida

Privately-held Farmers Insurance Group will stop offering policies in Florida, a move that the company expects will impact about 100,000 customers. Some of the company's subsidiaries will continue to operate in the state. Farmer's has cited the need to manage the risk of exposure to potential hurricanes. They are also the fourth home insurance company to withdraw from the market.
Domino's Inks Deal with Uber

Pizza chain Domino's (DPZ) has announced a deal with Uber (UBER). The chain has suffered in recent years as food delivery apps have risen in popularity with users. Domino's believes the partnership could lead to another $1 billion in sales as it gets back some of the market share lost to food delivery apps.
Firefly Generates Billionth Image

The Firefly web service, a user interface that can generate assets, has made its billionth image. The services has been expanded to include over 100 languages, including Klingon. The service is still in beta testing stages, but owner Adobe (ADBE) is on track to continue expanding access worldwide.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
DPZ 11.092%
ENPH 5.191%
IVZ 4.841%
NEM 4.387%
EMN 4.236%
BOTTOM
PANW 7.03%
CNC 5.844%
RXO 4.873%
ELV 4.78%
CI 4.632%

Quote of the Day
The Fed worries about there being [a] wage price spiral. I think there's going to be a recession, because the Fed [will] keep going until they see the labor market crack and until wage [growth] goes well below 4%.
- Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, on why the economy continues to face a recession as inflation remains sticky and the Fed needs to continue to raise interest rates.

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