Tuesday, June 27, 2023

😑Much Ado About Russia

Good morning. The weekend saw the news of a potential coup in Russia. However, it also appears to...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The weekend saw the news of a potential coup in Russia. However, it also appears to have dissipated as quickly as it developed. Western nations have spent decades trying to understand the Russian psyche, and have often failed to understand the country's moves.

While the geopolitical fallout has been brief, investors and traders alike can see the crisis playbook at work. Stock futures dropped over the weekend, and gold prices inched higher. That's typical of most geopolitical events – markets may initially have a move, but things will quickly settle back to their long-term trend.

That suggests that the market is likely to continue to trend higher in the coming months, especially if there's a bit more of a pullback in the coming days off of overbought levels. Traders and investors alike should be looking for bargains on the long side here that haven't run massively higher like tech stocks.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,714.71 -0.04%
S&P 4,328.82 -0.45%
NASDAQ 13,335.78 -1.16%
*As of market close
Stocks dropped on Monday, closing at their lows of the day.
Oil rose 0.4 percent, closing at $69.45 per barrel.
Gold rose 0.2 percent, ending at $1,933 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies declined, with bitcoin at $30,2737 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Declining Uncertainty Is Good for Stock Prices
Investors don't like uncertainty. That tends to lead prices lower, which can create a good buying opportunity. Ideally, the time to buy is when uncertainties that represent a major threat to a business start to go fade away.

That may not mean an immediate move higher, but it will likely mean the end of a downtrend and an opportunity to beat the market over time. Among company-specific uncertainties, one of the most challenging to contend with is litigation.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Archer Aviation (ACHR)
Deborah Diaz, a director at Archer Aviation (ACHR), recently bought 12,000 shares. The buy increased her stake by 54 percent, and came to a total cost of $53,640.

This marks the first insider buy at the company since January, when a cluster of insiders, including the CEO and CFO, bought shares. Since then, a major holder has been a repeated seller of shares, as well as the company COO.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Newell Brands (NWL)
Consumer goods manufacturer Newell Brands (NWL) has lost over 60 percent of its value over the past year. One trader sees a rebound ahead in the coming months.

That's based on the August $9 calls. With 52 days until expiration, 7,119 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 157, for a 45-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $0.35 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Traders Bet Bull Market Will Continue

Traders are increasingly confident that the bull market will continue. That's based on data from the options market, which shows a record high level of call option trading relative to put options. Stocks have reentered a bull market, defined as a rally of 20 percent from the prior market bottom.
Rents Start to Decline

Median rents in the United States fell on a year-over-year basis for the month ending in May. The median asking rent came to $1,739, down about $3 from April, and down about 0.5 percent since May 2022. It's the first year-over-year decline since 2020. Housing costs, including rent, make up a large chunk of consumer prices, so this may indicate a further drop in inflation ahead.
Economists See No Recession This Year

While economic growth is slowing, declining inflation rates suggest that the economy may not fall into a recession in 2023. Economists and traders alike see a move toward a more "soft landing" scenario, which usually hasn't been the case when the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates.
OPEC Sees Oil Demand Rising to 110 Million Barrels Per Day by 2045

The OPEC cartel sees oil demand rising by about 23 percent over the next two decades. That suggests that global demand will rise to 110 million barrels per day amid a global demand for more energy use. That's even accounting for the rise of electric vehicles, which will save million of barrels per day in potential use.
Aston Martin Looks to Develop EVs

UK carmaker Aston Marin is looking to produce EV models of its cars by 2025. As part of the move, they've tapped Lucid Group (LCID) for key technologies such as powertrain components. The news is a reversal of fortune for Lucid, as the company has slowed down and announced layoffs in recent months.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
BXP 9.922%
ARE 4.758%
NWL 4.65%
WELL 4.274%
WRK 4.187%
BOTTOM
CCL 7.748%
TSLA 6.029%
KMX 5.919%
ETSY 4.897%
ILMN 4.85%

Quote of the Day
Markets are weaker because I think that they're realizing that not just the Federal Reserve, but global central banks are not done, and are still actually fully committed to their inflation fight and will sacrifice economic growth if they need to.
- Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, on the market's move lower in the past week as investors price in the potential for slightly higher interest rates in the months ahead.

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