| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| 
President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy emerged from their debt ceiling huddle at the White House last night touting progress — but acknowledging they have a ways to go before landing a deal. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — With RON DeSANTIS set to officially launch his presidential campaign as soon as tomorrow, his GOP competitors are ready to sink their teeth into the Florida governor. NIKKI HALEY’s campaign is taking an early swing today, rebutting the argument that he’s DONALD “TRUMP without the drama” by calling him “Trump without the charm.” In a new memo to allies and surrogates obtained by Playbook, Haley campaign manager BETSY ANKNEY makes the argument that DeSantis isn’t the credible Trump alternative that many Republicans are looking for and runs through a host of weaknesses, ranging from his war with Disney to his aversion to retail politicking. She borrows a line from legendary conservative activist PHYLLIS SCHLAFLY to argue GOP voters want “a choice, not an echo.” “DeSantis might not have Trump’s taste for incendiary tweets,” Ankney writes, “but make no mistake: his record shows that his ‘leadership style’ will only lead to more drama.” Read the full memo Meanwhile … check out this burn from Trump campaign co-manager CHRIS LaCIVITA, responding to DeSantis super PAC founder KEN CUCCINELLI boasting about the gov’s “major” accomplishments: “his biggest accomplishment in this campaign is generating more candidates!” DEBT LIMIT WHAT-IFS — President JOE BIDEN and Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY emerged from their debt ceiling huddle at the White House last night touting progress — but acknowledging they have a ways to go before landing a deal. Top negotiators worked late last night on Capitol Hill last night, but no breakthrough appears imminent. With only nine days until the earliest possible default on June 1, we’re going to address the question lawmakers aren’t ready to face: What happens if Biden and McCarthy can’t make a deal? We spent several hours yesterday afternoon and evening working the phones, asking lawmakers and top aides in both parties what Plan B might look like if the talks stall or fall apart entirely. What we heard should make Wall Street, Washington and, frankly, everyone else worry: None of the backups are a sure thing. Here are the possible scenarios, ranked most to least likely: 1. KICK THE CAN: Yes, the parties could agree to raise the debt ceiling for anywhere from a few days to a few weeks, giving negotiators more time to land an agreement. Both sides have publicly downplayed this possibility even as they privately speculate that it might need to happen given the potentially catastrophic economic consequences of a default. The complications: McCarthy’s allies have suggested that Republicans won’t raise the debt ceiling — even temporarily — for free. If they press for concessions in return for a stopgap, the White House could balk, leaving negotiators back where they started. And to many involved, an extension makes sense only if the parties are already on a clear glide path toward an agreement. Usually in Washington, it’s a hard deadline that forces a deal, not the promise of more time. The prognosis: Possible and, according to some top aides, increasingly probable. 2. ‘GANG’ WARFARE: If there’s a partisan stalemate in Washington, you can frequently find a bipartisan “gang” of deal-making moderate senators willing to at least talk about how to come to a deal. Not this time — at least not right now. Even the senators who are usually at the center of the action — think SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) — have intentionally stayed on the sidelines lest they undercut their parties’ top negotiators. Republicans are closely following the lead of Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who has insisted any deal must be crafted by Biden and McCarthy only. They worry that even floating the possibility of a Senate rescue plan will hurt McCarthy’s negotiating position, giving Democrats a clear opening to divide them and ultimately win the day. Democrats, similarly, don’t want to undercut Biden — even though many of them privately worry that the president will give too much away to McCarthy. Still, we’re told that some centrists are indeed standing at the ready and have quietly discussed when and if they should jump in. If there’s no deal by next week, one Senate aide told us, things could change quickly. The complications: For one, the Senate isn’t even in town right now, making it difficult for members to coordinate. For another, “gangs” aren’t exactly known for working quickly. Consider the bipartisan coalition that came together last year to rewrite the Electoral Count Act. Despite being united in a desire to prevent another Jan. 6, the group took six months to write a bill and then just about as long to get it passed into law. The prognosis: Unlikely, but not unthinkable. 3. ENTER THE PROBLEM SOLVERS: Some Democrats privately speculate that if worse comes to worst, they might be able to convince enough moderate Republicans to raise the debt ceiling in return for some sort of deficit-busting outside commission. That idea emerged from the House’s bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, which boasts more than two dozen GOP lawmakers. But there’s no way McCarthy would sideline his conservative rank and file that way, and without his blessing, Democrats would have to find 218 signatures — read: the support of all Democrats plus five House Republicans — to make an end run around the speaker and put the plan on the floor. The complications: The moderate Republicans who would have to break ranks are some of McCarthy’s closest allies, making a mutiny unlikely at best. And even if the speaker gave those centrists a wink and a nod, as some Democrats believe he might, those members would face enormous political blowback. Furthermore, by the time a discharged bill hits the House floor, the X date may well have come and gone. The prognosis: Dream on. 4. DARK BRANDON RISES: It’s received a lot of attention lately, but the idea that Biden could act unilaterally and cite the Constitution’s 14th Amendment (or, even more fancifully, mint a trillion-dollar coin) to continue paying the nation’s bills is much easier said than done. Proponents argue that the president has the power to save the nation from economic disaster — without engaging in messy negotiations over spending cuts or work requirements for anti-poverty programs. The complications: Biden, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN and other administration officials haven’t officially ruled anything out, but they have been clear about the complexities of acting unilaterally. To begin with, any such action would be quickly challenged in court — and while the litigation plays out, any government payments made under presidential authority will be subject to dispute, likely throwing financial markets into a crisis indistinguishable from an actual default. The prognosis: Fuhgeddaboudit. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Altria: Public support for Tobacco Harm Reduction. Tobacco Harm Reduction is an established public health strategy that supports transitioning adult smokers who can’t or won’t stop smoking to potentially less risky tobacco products. 82% of adults 21+ surveyed think it is important for the FDA to focus on making smoke-free tobacco products available to adult smokers to help them switch from cigarettes. See the poll results here. | | | More debt limit reads … — “Why the debt talks are McCarthy’s second job interview,” by Olivia Beavers: “As the talks lurch closer to the Treasury Department’s default deadline, it should not be forgotten that McCarthy’s speakership is still on the line.” — “Yellen Says It’s Now ‘Highly Likely’ US Out of Cash Early June,” by Bloomberg’s Christopher Condon: “Goldman Sachs is among those seeing June 8-9 as critical.” (The Bipartisan Policy Center’s latest estimate, out this morning, sees “an elevated risk [of default] between June 2 and June 13.”) — “Why we may need a stock market plunge to solve the debt ceiling crisis,” by CNN’s Matt Egan: “In some ways, the calm mood in markets is acting like a feedback loop. Investors are betting it’ll all get taken care of. Lawmakers are in no rush because the markets are not freaking out. Rinse and repeat.” — “What it would mean for the global economy if the US defaults on its debt,” by AP’s Paul Wiseman: “Moody’s … concluded that even if the debt limit were breached for no more than week, the U.S. economy would weaken so much, so fast, as to wipe out roughly 1.5 million jobs.” — “GOP’s cut to IRS funding in debt limit plan would backfire,” by Brian Faler: “Forecasters generally agree that beefing up tax enforcement is a money maker for the Treasury because auditors bring in far more cash than it costs to employ them.”
| | | | A message from Altria:   Altria is leading the way in transitioning millions of adult smokers from cigarettes to a smoke-free future. | | | | | BIDEN’S TUESDAY:
12:15 p.m.: The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will have lunch.
1 p.m.: Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief, with Harris attending.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2:30 p.m.
THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. and at noon will take up a resolution to overturn an EPA air pollution rule.
THE SENATE is out. | | | | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
|  Participants in the "Trans Youth Prom" pose for a photo in front of the U.S. Supreme Court Building on May 22, 2023. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH GREAT SCOTT — Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) jumped into the presidential race yesterday, and CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports that he’ll be able to count on millions of dollars in spending from billionaire megadonor LARRY ELLISON. He donated $30 million to a pro-Scott super PAC last year, and he’s reportedly planning to double that in the 2024 cycle. Scott is tapping into a segment of the establishment GOP: GLENN McCALL, who co-authored the famous 2013 GOP autopsy that urged the party to take a very different path than it has with Trump, led the Pledge of Allegiance at Scott’s event, per The Post & Courier’s Caitlin Byrd. And in a soundbite more notable for the fact that it had to be said than for the content itself, Scott told NBC’s Tom Llamas that he would not try to overturn an election he lost. Speaking of … The Trump team is thrilled to have Scott in the race, because they see Trump’s pathway to the nomination as getting easier the more crowded his field of opponents is, Meridith McGraw reports. DeSANTIS’ SUPPORT … “Over 100 former Trump administration officials back DeSantis for president: ‘A proven winner,’” by Fox News’ Brandon Gillespie: “The officials have formed a coalition called ‘The Eight-Year Alliance,’ viewing DeSantis as a viable two-term candidate.” — “DeSantis envisions shaping ‘7-2 conservative majority’ on Supreme Court,” by WaPo’s Hannah Knowles: “Speaking to a Christian media conference in Orlando, the soon-to-be GOP presidential candidate also leaned into the idea that he could serve eight years if elected — an implicit contrast with [Trump].” … AND STRUGGLE: “Trump warned Ron DeSantis not to run. Now, he plans to keep hammering away,” by NBC’s Jonathan Allen: “[T]hough [the Trump team is] keeping the specifics of their plans to welcome DeSantis to the race close to the vest, they say the thrust of their strategy won’t change much.” — “Ron DeSantis is learning that not every state wants to be Florida,” by NBC’s Henry Gomez: “[H]e has encountered spirited pushback from competitive fellow governors and GOP officials who believe that their states have done just as much, if not more, to advance a conservative agenda.” RIDE THE WAVER — “Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin reconsiders 2024 bid,” by Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke and Mike Allen: “Youngkin faces high-stakes state legislative races in November. So an announcement about a presidential race is likely to wait until right after that.” Color us skeptical: November isn’t really enough time to make a play in Iowa in January. CASUALTIES ON THE BATTLEFIELD OF LOVE — “Marianne Williamson loses top 2 campaign officials in a matter of days,” by Brittany Gibson MORE POLITICS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Mississippi Gov. TATE REEVES’ reelect is going up with his first TV ad of the cycle, putting $1.3 million behind a spot narrated by his wife ELEE that touts Reeves’ leadership through crises and difficult times in the state. The ad, titled “Mississippi Momentum,” will run through June and into July. The Republican incumbent should be the favorite in November in bright-red Mississippi, but he is facing an unusually tough challenge from Democrat BRANDON PRESLEY. The Reeves campaign notes that the $1.3 million purchase matches Presley’s whole cash on hand. Watch it here DOWNSTREAM FROM CARPER — Sen. TOM CARPER’s (D-Del.) retirement announcement yesterday is expected to pave the way for Rep. LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER (D-Del.) to replace him, potentially returning a Black woman to the Senate for the first time since Kamala Harris became VP. The congresswoman has yet to officially announce her intentions, but an expected wide-open Democratic primary for Blunt Rochester’s seat is already beginning to shape up. It will “quite likely” include state Sen. SARAH McBRIDE, who would become the first transgender member of Congress if elected, Bloomberg Government’s Zach Cohen reports. In the Senate, Carper’s departure could open up a pathway for Sen. SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.) to take the top Democratic spot on Environment and Public Works — and then Sen. JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.) to take Whitehouse’s role on the Budget Committee, Roll Call’s David Jordan reports. IT’S OVER — “Judge dismisses Kari Lake’s final claim in election loss for Arizona governor,” AP CONGRESS THE BIDEN FAMILY PROBES — “Second IRS whistleblower who raised Hunter Biden concerns claims retaliation,” by the Washington Examiner’s Jerry Dunleavy … “Hunter Biden investigation: Grassley shut out from IRS whistleblower investigation,” by Dunleavy … “FBI fails to turn over subpoenaed Biden ‘criminal scheme’ document during briefing,” by the Examiner’s Gabe Kaminsky And what the left will seize on: “‘Look At The Polling’: James Comer Boasts His Investigation Into Biden Family Is Why Trump is Gaining in 2024 Polls,” by Mediaite’s Alex Griffing TRUMP CARDS DOCU-DRAMA — The federal investigation into Trump’s handling of classified materials seems to be reaching further than we knew before: NYT’s Alan Feuer, Maggie Haberman and Ben Protess scooped that special counsel JACK SMITH’s office has subpoenaed records of the Trump Organization’s dealings across seven countries — China, France, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the UAE — since Trump assumed the presidency. That “suggests that Mr. Smith is exploring whether there is any connection between Mr. Trump’s deal-making abroad and the classified documents he took with him when he left office.” Meanwhile, Smith has gotten notes taken by Trump lawyer EVAN CORCORAN that indicate he warned Trump “he could not retain any classified documents after he was subpoenaed for their return,” the Guardian’s Hugo Lowell scooped. Trump also asked Corcoran last year if he could fight the subpoena, according to the notes, CNN’s Paula Reid, Kaitlan Collins, Katelyn Polantz, Kristen Holmes and Sara Murray add. All of this could be relevant to a potential obstruction case. TRUTH AND CONSEQUENCES — “E. Jean Carroll seeks damages from Trump for CNN town hall comments,” by WaPo’s Shayna Jacobs
| | | | A message from Altria:   Altria is leading the way in transitioning millions of adult smokers from cigarettes to a smoke-free future. | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE THE END OF CORRUPTION CONVICTIONS? — “U.S. Supreme Court backs three men in Cuomo-era New York corruption cases,” by Reuters’ Luc Cohen: “The justices threw out lower court decisions upholding the 2018 convictions of STEVEN AIELLO, JOSEPH GERARDI and ALAIN KALOYEROS … The court has hemmed in prosecutors in a series of political corruption cases in recent years.” WAR IN UKRAINE BEHIND THE SCENES — “How Biden got to yes on F-16s and Ukraine,” by Lara Seligman: “A key turning point came in the last few weeks, when the West finished delivering the vast majority of equipment Ukraine needed for a planned spring counteroffensive. … [T]he group turned its attention to equipping Ukraine for the long term.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD IMMIGRATION WARNING SIGNS — The big news in the immediate aftermath of Title 42 ending was that a major surge of migrants didn’t happen. But there are gathering storm clouds suggesting continuing strains to the border and U.S. immigration systems: — At the Mexican-Guatemalan border, “the chaotic scene is business as usual,” the L.A. Times’ Patrick McDonnell reports. “Huge numbers of U.S.-bound migrants — mostly South and Central Americans, but also a mix of people from Africa, Asia and Europe — are making illegal crossings” on their way to the U.S. — And the new system for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans looks like it could be quickly overtaxed: 1.5 million private requests have come in to sponsor migrants from those countries, but the program accepts just 30,000 per month, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez reports. BEYOND THE BELTWAY ONE YEAR LATER — “These Uvalde Survivors Were Too Scared to Go Back to School. Then They Saw a TikTok,” by Nora Neus in Uvalde, Texas, for POLITICO Magazine: “As lawmakers go back and forth over how to respond to the epidemic of mass shootings, one question often pops up: How do you make schools safe without hardening them to the point that it exacerbates mental health issues among students and makes schools inhospitable to learning?” Related read: “How Uvalde Parents Learned to Grieve in Public,” by NYT’s Jaeah Lee LINCOLN LOGS — “Gov. Pillen signs Nebraska’s new abortion, trans health care restrictions into law,” by the Omaha World-Herald’s Erin Bamer MEDIAWATCH WHAT’S NEXT FOR TUCKER — As TUCKER CARLSON tries to get Fox News to release him from his contractual non-compete clause, talks between his attorneys and the network have stalled, The Daily Beast’s Lachlan Cartwright reports. As a result, Cartwright reports, you can expect to see Carlson’s allies work hard to embarrass Fox with leaks and attacks that could include “revelations about extramarital affairs and workplace misconduct.” One story along those lines already emerged yesterday: The Daily Signal’s Mary Margaret Olohan scooped Fox’s internal policies around gender for employees from 2021, which included allowing staffers to dress, use bathrooms and use pronouns aligned with their gender identity. (Fox declined to comment for the story, for which it came in for plenty of opprobrium from the right.) What’s NOT next for Tucker: running for president. His lawyer HARMEET DHILLON sent a cease-and-desist letter to the Draft Tucker PAC, per Mediaite’s Aidan McLaughlin. “Mr. Carlson will not run for President in 2024 under any circumstances,” she wrote. VALLEY TALK TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — “TikTok files lawsuit to overturn Montana’s 1st-in-nation ban on the video sharing app,” by AP’s Amy Beth Hanson in Helena RED-HANDED — “Emails, Chat Logs, Code and a Notebook: The Mountain of FTX Evidence,” by NYT’s David Yaffe-Bellany and Matthew Goldstein
| | | | GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Tim Scott had a different kind of mic drop. Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez are reportedly engaged. George Santos thanked fellow Republicans for not expelling him. Lauren Boebert dismissed the Sean Feucht romance rumors: “How can I be with a man with better hair than me?” Xie Feng arrives today as the new Chinese ambassador. “Vice News Tonight” will air its last episode Thursday. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Democratic campaign veterans Helen Hare and Marina Orcutt are launching a new full-service digital advertising and strategic comms firm, Watershed Strategy. Hare most recently managed Sen. Patty Murray’s (D-Wash.) reelect. Orcutt most recently was deputy director of the DSCC IE. They’re bringing on Ben Seltzer as managing director. He most recently was deputy digital director for Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s (D-Nev.) reelect. — Democratic relational organizing company Relentless is launching a new tech platform called Rally to help campaigns run relational programs and reach voters. The tool was beta-tested across seven battleground states in 2022 and is part of Democrats’ efforts to invest in relational outreach tactics in the lead-up to 2024. NEW NOMINEES — Biden announced he’s nominating Anna Gomez as an FCC commissioner after his previous pick, Gigi Sohn, failed to secure enough Senate support. He also renominated Geoffrey Starks and Brendan Carr. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Jason Israel is now special assistant to the president and senior director for defense at the NSC. He most recently was a trans-Atlantic leadership fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, and is an Obama NSC and DOD alum. TRANSITIONS — Evan Chernack is now campaign adviser at New Politics. He previously was campaign manager for Robert Zimmerman’s New York congressional bid. … Isabel Aldunate will be director of media relations at the AFL-CIO. She previously was deputy associate director for comms at OMB, and is a Biden campaign and Chuck Schumer alum. … Meg Spencer is now press secretary for Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). She previously was a social media associate for executive and influencer strategy at the Obama Foundation, and is a Jason Crow and Susan Wild alum … … Liz Leibowitz is now senior director of U.S. government relations for the One Campaign. She most recently was a senior adviser at USAID, and is a Ben Cardin and Nita Lowey alum. … Andrew Coffield is now a professional staff member for the House Small Business Committee. He most recently was a field representative in the Ohio Office of Criminal Justice Services. … Holden Sczerba is now a press assistant for Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.). WEEKEND WEDDING — Myah Ward, a White House reporter for POLITICO, and Jake VanDyne, a tax consultant at Deloitte, got married Saturday in Charlotte, N.C. They met in middle school in Charlotte.Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Julie Orsini of APCO Worldwide HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) … William Minor of DLA Piper … WaPo’s Dana Priest … former AG Bill Barr … Shekar Narasimhan … ABC’s Mary Bruce … Nate McDermott … NBC’s Danielle Dellorto … Jorge Martínez … Megan McKinley … BBC’s Adam Levy … Melanie Fonder Kaye … PhRMA’s Sarah Sutton … Reuel Marc Gerecht … Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli … Rachel MacKnight … Mel Lukens … Arianna Miskin … Jerry Goldfeder … Tom Heinemann Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the minimum number of days before a possible federal default.
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