Tuesday, May 23, 2023

🏡Is This the Magic Number for the Housing Market?

Good morning. 30-year mortgage rates give a quick snapshot in terms of how much it costs to buy a...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. 30-year mortgage rates give a quick snapshot in terms of how much it costs to buy a house. When rates soared last year to nearly 7 percent, sales slowed. So did mortgage refinancings. But when rates came down to 6.5 percent, the market opened up a bit.

Whether or not today's mortgage rates are high depends on your point of view. They're quite high if you're looking over the past decade. But if you're looking at the past 80 years, they're still on the low side.

Those looking to bet on housing-related trades should be cautious as long as rates are near or over 7 percent… and get increasingly bullish when getting to 6 percent or lower.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,286.58 -0.42%
S&P 4,192.63 +0.02%
NASDAQ 12,720.78 +0.50%
*As of market close
Stocks closed mixed on Monday, as debt ceiling negotiations continued.
Oil rose 0.4 percent, closing at $71.81 per barrel.
Gold dropped 0.4 percent, ending the day at $1,974 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded mixed, with Bitcoin at $26,846 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Controversy Can Lead to a Selloff – The Question Is Whether or Not It Lasts
Sometimes a company makes a misstep that can cost it customers in the short term. Other times, a misstep can be more permanent in nature. The question is how each specific opportunity plays out.

Since each situation is different, it helps to look at the strength of the market reaction. And how competitors are faring as well. If a company faces trouble in a bear market, it may get overlooked. But it may also shine a favorable light on a competitor.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: PRA Group (PRAA)
Vikram Atal, President and CEO at PRA Group (PRAA), recently bought 40,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 60 percent, and came to a total cost just under $753,000.

He was joined by two directors. One bought 12,000 shares, paying about $229,000. Another bought 7,500 shares, paying just under $142,000. Insiders have otherwise been sellers of shares over the past two years, at price more than double where shares trade today.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Uber Technologies (UBER)
Ride share service Uber Technologies (UBER) has had a strong rally, with shares up 68 percent over the past year. One trader is betting that the rally has stalled out.

That's based on the December 15 $40 puts. With 205 days until expiration, 3,004 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 107, for a 28-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $4.80 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Kashkari Warns on Future Interest Rate Hikes

Although the Federal Reserve strongly hinted that it was ready to pause interest rate hikes, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has warned that there may be more rate hikes ahead. At the latest read, inflation came in at 4.9 percent, well over the Fed's 2 percent inflation goal. If that trend continues, further rate hikes may be needed.
Debt Default Could Halt M&A Activity

Rising interest rates and the fear of a recession have helped slow down interest in mergers and acquisitions among businesses, which tend to be funded in part with debt. With the U.S. potentially heading towards a debt default, the space may stop entirely, as a default may lead to higher short-term interest rates.
EU Fines Meta $1.3 Billion

Regulators in the European Union have fined Meta Platforms (META) $1.3 billion. The fine came as the company sent user information to the United States, in violation of the EU's data-protection laws. The fine is a record level, although fines against big tech firms have risen in recent years.
FlowX.ai Raises $35 Million in Series A Funding

Startup FlowX.ai, which works primarily with artificial intelligence to port legacy and newer software together in the financial sector, has raised $35 million in series A funding. The money will be used to develop its products, and to expand international operations.
Chevron to Buy PDC Energy In $6.3 Billion Shale Deal

Oil giant Chevron (CVX) has announced that it's spending about $6.3 billion to buy PDC Energy (PDCE). The deal will expand Chevron's footprint in Texas and Colorado, and increase the company's stake in shale drilling opportunities. PDCE shares jumped about 8 percent on news of the deal.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
EPAM  6.847%
MTCH  6.658%
GEN 5.525%
PFE 5.228%
ZION 5.118%
BOTTOM
RE 4.255%
NKE 3.791%
ACGL 3.262%
MU 3.139%
AAL 3.07%

Quote of the Day
Equity markets have remained calm, but the next few weeks could see us test the limit of how much risk they can absorb. We see better risk-reward in high-quality bonds than in broad US equity indexes, and favor gold as a portfolio hedge.
- Mark Haefele, analyst at UBS Global Wealth Management, on the possibility of the market trending down in the coming weeks as the debt ceiling crisis continues and as stocks have moved to the higher end of their range.

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