| | | | | | | | | | | Axios Generate | | By Ben Geman and Andrew Freedman · Jan 24, 2023 | | 🚀 Off we go! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,090 words, 4.5 minutes. 🎶 On this date in 1981, Hall & Oates released a perfect single that's today's intro tune... | | | | | | 1 big thing: Horn of Africa's drought trajectory |  | | | A woman tries to get clean water in Kajiado, Kenya on Nov. 13, 2022. Photo: Gerald Anderson/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images | | | | The eastern Horn of Africa just saw an unprecedented fifth straight failed rainy season on record, making it the longest and most severe drought in 70 years of precipitation data, Andrew writes. - The region is likely headed for a sixth poor rainy season this spring, a new forecast warns.
Why it matters: The drought has tipped the region, which encompasses much of Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, into widespread severe food insecurity. It has also driven Somalia to the brink of famine. State of play: More than 1.3 million people in Somalia have been forced to leave their farms and migrate to seek food in displacement sites. - About 8.3 million Somalis are at risk of famine if more humanitarian assistance is not delivered soon, according to the International Rescue Committee, an aid group.
The big picture: The ongoing drought has its roots in a combination of human-induced global warming and La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. - La Niña can temporarily reconfigure global weather patterns, bringing increased rainfall to Indonesia, whereas eastern Africa tends to see reduced rains.
- The warming climate worsens droughts by boosting air temperatures and enhancing evaporation from soils and vegetation.
- Globally, ocean temperatures are also increasing rapidly, which tilts the odds in favor of wet and dry precipitation extremes.
What they're saying: The Famine Early Warning Systems Network called the rainfall totals for the most recent October through December period "grim" in a statement issued Monday. Threat level: The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons per year, one from March to May, and another from October to December. - The Hazards Center predicts the sixth straight failed wet season from March to May of this year, as La Niña's effects are expected to linger.
- The drought is worsening a humanitarian crisis at a time when parts of the region are in conflict, a type of scenario national security planners expect the U.S. and other countries will encounter more frequently abroad due to global warming.
|     | | | | | | 2. A wide-angle take on AI and climate change |  | | | Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios | | | | Artificial intelligence is all the rage with ChatGPT's emergence, so a University of California academic is exploring AI's upsides and peril for the climate, Ben writes. The big picture: Here's Berkeley resource economist James Sallee's thinking about the next five to 15 years: 📈 AI may speed economic growth. "Deep decarbonization... requires significant structural and societal change, and change is easier to achieve when the economic pie is growing," he writes in a new post. 🔬 AI can foster innovation in climate tech but also marketing, communications and policy. Yes, but: It could also disrupt industries, worsen inequality, and sow division — all bad things for climate cooperation. - Another concern: Tech like ChatGPT could muddy political waters by making misinformation more potent.
- "Vested interests, from petro-states to old fashioned oil companies, that wish to obstruct the policy and social cohesion needed to accelerate the clean energy transition have a powerful new tool."
The bottom line: If you see climate as largely a tech problem, AI is cause for optimism, he writes. - "If, on the other hand, you view the climate struggle as a pitched battle between partisans, you may well come to a different, darker view."
| | | | | | | | 3. 👀 On our radar: Tesla's new semi-truck plans | | Tesla will reveal plans today for a multi-billion dollar Nevada plant to manufacture the electric automaker's semi-truck, Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) said last night, Ben writes. Driving the news: "I am looking forward to joining Elon Musk and the team at Tesla tomorrow when they unveil plans to build a brand new $3.5 billion dollar advanced manufacturing facility in northern Nevada," he said, per a transcript of his "State of the State" address. What we don't know: Much of anything, including how this may affect previously announced plans to build the truck in Texas. - More details on production targets could emerge on Tesla's analyst call Wednesday after reporting Q4 earnings, though in reality the company's plans are generally written in pencil.
| | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | Your smarter start to 2023 | | |  | | | | Axios Pro covers every critical trend affecting your industry to help you better understand the future economic landscape while keeping you informed. Use code PRO2023 at checkout to get $200 off your subcription. | | | | | | 4. Climate law prompts trans-Atlantic scramble |  | | | Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images | | | | This morning is bringing fresh signs of the intensifying industrial competition spurred by major new subsidies in the U.S. climate law, Ben writes. Driving the news, part 1: Bloomberg reports that a major European metals industry group is urging policymakers there to boost domestic support. - Eurometaux is urging policy measures including "fast-tracking of clean-energy projects and tax credits to support strategic metals production," they report.
- "The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, while discriminatory, has shown what a proactive clean tech industrial policy could look like," states a letter from Eurometaux to the European Commission.
Driving the news, part 2: The Financial Times reports that economic officials from Michigan, Georgia, Ohio and other states are ramping up efforts to "lure European clean energy businesses across the Atlantic." - State delegations have toured Europe "armed with details of subsidies" in the E.U. law.
| | | | | | | | 5. The path to a U.S. offshore wind supply chain |  A new report sees major opportunities for building a domestic supply chain for offshore wind power growth, but barriers remain despite support in the new climate law, Ben writes. Why it matters: The White House is targeting at least 30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity in U.S. waters by 2030 and growth thereafter. - Energy companies have big projects in various phases of development, but timelines and deployment levels remain unclear.
Threat level: Offshore wind won't become a meaningful part of the power mix without port upgrades, greater component availability and much more — an industrial build out beyond what's already underway. - The report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and others describes barriers on a component-by-component basis, such as permitting uncertainty, space and workforce challenges.
- It offers a "roadmap" for development in coming years, ranging from labor force development to siting to business-to-business communication and a lot in between.
Zoom in: "Building a supply chain by 2030 that can support the near-term deployment demand of the U.S. offshore wind pipeline would require an investment of at least $22.4 billion in major manufacturing facilities, ports, and large installation vessels to be made this decade," it states, and cautions that's an incomplete list. Full report... coverage in The Hill | | | | | | | | 6. 💬 Quoted | | "We've gone back to the days of Henry Ford where everyone is asking 'how do you make these things work properly?'" — Nick Fry, CEO of auto engineering and tech firm McLaren Applied, via ReutersFry's explaining how giant automakers' EV plans are a "golden opportunity for new suppliers to grab contracts providing everything from battery packs to motors and inverters." | | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | Your smarter start to 2023 | | | | | | | | Axios Pro covers every critical trend affecting your industry to help you better understand the future economic landscape while keeping you informed. Use code PRO2023 at checkout to get $200 off your subcription. | | | | 📬 Did a friend send you this newsletter? Welcome, please sign up. 🙏 Thanks to Nick Aspinwall and David Nather for edits to today's newsletter. |  | | Your personal policy analyst is here. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters.
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