Good morning. The stock market had a massive rally yesterday, fueled by the latest inflation read...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.
 | | |  Good morning. The stock market had a massive rally yesterday, fueled by the latest inflation read. With inflation running at 7.7 percent annualized, down from 8.2 percent, some progress is being made. The problem? With Fed rates just over 4 percent, real interest rates remain negative. Even today's 30-year mortgage rates, at 7 percent, are still slightly negative in real terms.
To curb inflation, the Fed has to raise rates so that they're positive after inflation. So rates are likely to keep trending up as inflation trends down.
That still points to a change next year, which should allow the market to finally flip from a bear to a bull. Until then, stay cautious, and use big market rally days like yesterday's to get out of leveraged or poorly-performing trades.
Now here's the rest of the news: | | | | | |
| | |  | DOW 33,715.37 | +3.70% | | | | | S&P 3,956.37 | +5.54% | | | | | NASDAQ 11,114.15 | +7.35% | | | | | *As of market close | | | • | Stocks soared on Thursday, as the latest inflation data came in lower than expected. | | | • | Oil rose 1.3 percent, closing at $86.89 per barrel. | | | • | Gold jumped 2.4 percent, last going for about $1,755 per ounce. | | | • | Cryptocurrencies rallied, with Bitcoin at $18,002 at the stock market close. | | | | | | | |
| | | Buy the Brand When It's Down and Out | | | | Earnings season in a bear market can turn even a blue-chip stock into what looks like a penny stock with big moves up or down – usually down. But patient investors who buy an industry-leading company during a down market can get a great value.
Patient investors can earn a great return buying values and waiting for the market to recover. And, as that happens, traders tend to be more forgiving in future quarters for a company during bull markets.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | Insider Trading Report: Energy Transfer (ET) | | | | Kelcy Warren, Executive Chairman of Energy Transfer (ET), continues to pick up shares, with a 1.2 million share buy. The latest purchase increased his holdings by 0.4 percent, and came to a total cost of $14.8 million.
Warren last bought shares in mid-September, paying about where the stock trades today. Other insiders, including the company CFO, have been buyers earlier in the year as well. The last insider sale was a small one in 2020.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | Unusual Options Activity: Robinhood Markets (HOOD) | | | | Shares of brokerage Robinhood Markets (HOOD) have been slammed in recent sessions amid a selloff in cryptocurrencies. One trader sees a further decline in the coming months.
That's based on the February 2023 $4 puts. With 98 days until expiration, 3,284 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 150, for a 22-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.65 to make the bet.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | • | Inflation Rate Drops to 7.7 Percent
Inflation dropped to a 7.7 percent annualized rate for the 12 months ending in October, according to the latest data. That's a sizeable drop from the 8.2 percent annual rate for September. The drop was also well under expectations for an 8.0 percent read. Cooling inflation will take pressure off of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. | | | | • | Consumer Prices Rise 0.4 Percent in October
While overall inflation dropped on a year-over-year basis, the consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in October. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose just 0.3 percent, under expectations. Shelter costs, however, rose at their fastest monthly rate since 1990. | | | | • | Mortgage Rates Rise Back Over 7 Percent
After dropping last week, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to an average of 7.08 percent this week. That's still more than double last year's read of 2.98 one year ago. Rates are likely to continue rising in the months ahead, as the Federal Reserve still looks on track to raise interest rates further. | | | | • | Amazon Launches Cost-Cutting Review
Tech giant Amazon (AMZN) is launching a cost-cutting review. It will take a close look at the company's devices unit, best known for the smart speaker Alexa. The move comes as the company has started cutting jobs, and as the company's core business has struggled in the past year. | | | | • | Bankman-Fried Apologizes for FTX Collapse
Sam Bankman-Fried apologized for the collapse of FTX, the world's second-largest crypto exchange. He also noted at the company's US business is find and liquid, but that the exchange will be looking to raise liquidity in the coming days. The collapse of FTX has led to another big drop in cryptocurrencies this week. | | |
| | | | TOP | | | CZR | 18.703% | | | | IVZ | 18.416% | | | | TROW | 16.43% | | | | ETSY | 15.901% | | | | MHK | 14.791% | | | | BOTTOM | | | MCK | 3.968% | | | | CAH | 2.881% | | | | MO | 2.223% | | | | CBOE | 2.134% | | | | HSY | 1.946% | | | | |
| | |  | | The yellow metal is waking up to something… what exactly? well, we're unsure at this point. As is often the case in this business, the fundamental or macro justification for a sharp adjustment in price will likely reveal itself in time... It may take a few swings, but we've been warming to long Gold, and continue to do so today. | | - Chris Verrone, analyst as Strategas, on why a number of macroeconomic conditions favor gold right now, even with the metal down for the year alongside other assets like stocks and bonds. | |
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