Plus: McConnell-Scott turf war | Monday, November 07, 2022
| | | | | | | | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Nov 07, 2022 | | Welcome back to Sneak, and happy Election Eve. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,025 words ... 4 minutes. | | | | | | 1 big thing: GOP's mad scramble for midterm credit |  | | | Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios | | | | Republican leaders in the House and Senate are already clamoring for credit in anticipation of gaining seats in tomorrow's midterms, with several eyeing a potential GOP wave as a launch pad for their own political ambitions, Axios' Alayna Treene reports. Why it matters: The intraparty jockeying — which has already turned nasty in some cases — will have major implications for GOP leadership roles and potentially even the 2024 presidential nomination. The flip side: Underwhelming performances in either chamber will have an equally adverse effect, triggering an internal blame game over which of these leaders bear responsibility. Zoom in: House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has taken an extremely hands-on approach to recruitment and fundraising, hitting the trail a total of 172 days this year in part to promote a historically diverse class of GOP candidates. - The McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund has eclipsed the National Republican Congressional Committee in spending and outreach — helping give the party a huge cash advantage over Democrats.
- Punchbowl News reported today that McCarthy and his related groups spent an eye-popping $500 million in 2022 on behalf of House GOP candidates.
- Many Republicans will credit McCarthy for what happens tomorrow, and he'll use it to solidify his standing as likely House Speaker next year.
Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), whose role as NRCC chair will also earn him credit for a successful House GOP election year, worked in tandem with McCarthy to expand the map of competitive districts. - But McCarthy's outsized influence could pose problems for how much credit Emmer gets as he eyes a promotion to House Republican whip, which Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) — a close McCarthy ally — is also expected to pursue.
- According to House GOP lawmakers, aides and strategists, Emmer isn't seen as the game-changer this cycle. McCarthy and his prospects for becoming Speaker are expected to dominate the headlines should Republicans win.
- McCarthy has not come out in support of Emmer or any whip candidate.
|     | | | | | | 2. 🐘 Part II: Senate turf war |  | | | Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | | | | With control of the Senate expected to come down to a handful of battleground races, a months-long turf war between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and campaign chief Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is about to reach a fever pitch. Zoom in: The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) and the Scott-run National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) have both spent massively on behalf of Senate incumbents and candidates this cycle, but with key strategic differences. - The NRSC made the bold decision this year to spend over $40 million in the primaries — far earlier than it has in past cycles. That resulted in a cash crunch in the final months before the election, forcing the committee to cancel bookings in key swing states.
- SLF, meanwhile, made some eleventh-hour gambles that surprised many Republicans, including withdrawing crucial spending in Arizona in late September and New Hampshire in late October.
- The NRSC swooped back in to cover the spending in New Hampshire after SLF's cancellation.
Between the lines: McConnell was criticized in August for declaring the Senate would be hard to flip, citing "candidate quality" as a major factor. - The comment was seen as a dig at Scott, who is responsible for Republican recruits and has fiercely defended some of the GOP's flawed nominees.
- Establishment Republicans had been especially wary about the general-election prospects of Blake Masters in Arizona and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire.
- If either candidate wins or loses their race by a small margin (+/- 1-3 points), SLF — and McConnell specifically — will take major heat for the PAC's spending decisions, multiple Republican strategists tell Axios.
Zoom out: Most of the flawed candidates McConnell was likely referring to — including Masters, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia — had the enthusiastic backing of former President Trump. - Trump is planning to ride the GOP's expected post-midterm euphoria and use it to his advantage in officially announcing his 2024 presidential run, with signs he was considering doing so as early as tonight.
- Look for the former president to take credit for GOP victories across the board — including in races he had nothing to do with.
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 3. 🔮 Wasserman's final word |  | | | Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas). Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | | | | Cook Political Report's final House ratings are out, with last-minute shifts in three districts — all in Republicans' direction: - Florida's 13th: Open seat — Likely R ➡️ Lean R
- Florida's 27th: Republican Maria Elvira Salazar — Lean R ➡️ Likely R
- Texas' 28th: Democrat Henry Cuellar — Lean D ➡️ Toss-Up
Final forecast: - Lean, likely or solid Republican: 212 seats
- Lean, likely or solid Democrat: 187 seats
- Toss-ups: 36 seats
The bottom line: The likeliest outcome is a "GOP gain of between 15 and 30 seats, with more uncertainty than usual. ... [A]nything from a very narrow GOP majority to a Republican rout of more than 30 seats is well within the realm of possibility," CPR's House editor Dave Wasserman writes. | | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | Axios Pro: Health Care Policy is here | | |  | | | | Axios Pro: Health Care Policy delivers exclusive reporting and analysis on everything shaping policy across the health care space. Use code POLICYLAUNCH at checkout to get $200 off your subscription. | | | | | | 4. 📈 Google Trends: Abortion interest ticks up |  Data: Google Trends; Maps: Jacque Schrag and Will Chase/Axios Three highly competitive congressional seats — Iowa's 3rd, Nevada's 3rd and Nebraska's 2nd — were among the top 10 districts searching about abortion in the week leading up to Election Day, Axios' Stef Kight and Jacque Schrag write from the final installment of our Google Trends Midterms Dashboard. - Americans also Googled terms related to Donald Trump more than in the past couple weeks, likely tied to reporting that he plans to announce a 2024 bid this month.
Keep reading ... Explore the dashboard. | | | | | | | | 5. 👂 Parting shot | | Photo: Joshua A. Bickel/Bloomberg via Getty Images A Trump supporter wears an earring with the face of the former president, who has teased an announcement — or an announcement about an announcement — at his rally tonight for Ohio GOP Senate nominee J.D. Vance in Dayton. | | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | Axios Pro: Health Care Policy is here | | | | | | | | Axios Pro: Health Care Policy delivers exclusive reporting and analysis on everything shaping policy across the health care space. Use code POLICYLAUNCH at checkout to get $200 off your subscription. | | | | 📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. |  | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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