| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross and Eli Okun | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | 30 DAYS TO GO — Our elections guru Steve Shepard is up this morning with a weekly check-in on the state of the midterms: "With 30 days to go until Election Day, polling averages suggest Democrats and Republicans are each poised to win 50 Senate seats. Each party currently has the lead in just one seat currently held by the opposition: The Republican is slightly ahead in Nevada, while the Democrat has the lead in Pennsylvania. "And the polling averages in POLITICO's four Toss Up races remain tight — including in Georgia, where there's only been a single, one-day survey conducted since the allegations that GOP nominee HERSCHEL WALKER paid for his then-girlfriend's abortion in 2009." Read on for updates on 10 closely watched Senate races TODAY'S TOP READS:
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Kari Lake speaks at a rally in Chandler, Ariz., on Tuesday, Sept. 20. | Matt York/AP Photo | 1. The Atlantic's Elaine Godfrey is up with a big profile of the MAGA candidate of the moment: KARI LAKE. "The way Lake has imitated [DONALD ] TRUMP's rhetoric is obvious, but as I've followed her in the months since, something else has become clear: She is much better at this than Trump's other emulators. That makes sense, given her first career in front of the camera, cultivating trust among thousands of Maricopa County viewers. But this is more than imitation: Lake has made MAGA her own." And here's a trio of bites that offer an idea of just how far Lake could rise:
- The Trump '24 ticket? "All along, Lake's campaign has seemed like an audition — not just before the people of Arizona but before all of MAGA world. If she wins on November 8, she will have proved that her smooth, put-together version of Trumpism works. The former president already loves her, talks about her, rallies with her — and, just maybe, might decide that she'd make the perfect running mate."
- The heir apparent? "Lake is an elegant, polished speaker. Unlike Trump, she doesn't ruminate on flushing toilets or offer random asides about stabbings and rapes. She presents a calm self-assurance that can make even the wackiest conspiracy theories seem plausible. … What other MAGA Republicans possess this kind of magnetism? Although Florida Governor RON DeSANTIS is regarded as the most likely contender to inherit the mantle of Trumpism, onstage he is a charmless, wax-statue version of Trump. No, there's something about Lake that makes people — viewers, voters — want to buy what she's selling."
- Under the lights: "Lake has grown accustomed to the heat of the national spotlight, and even if next month doesn't go her way, she won't be retreating to her Phoenix home. With her TV experience, she could join a pro-Trump network. Another Arizona Senate seat will be open in two years, and she'd have a good shot at it. The MAGA movement will carry on, regardless of the midterms outcome — and Lake will be at the forefront of it. Or, as MEGHAN McCAIN put it to me, 'Even if she loses, she's won.'"
2. In 2018, women turned out in droves to help Democrats flip the House as they leaned into a strong dislike of Trumpism that seeped into nearly every major race. This year, there is a strong Republican-led energy seeking to deal President JOE BIDEN a blow at the polls. But the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision has again supercharged female voters, making the midterms tougher to predict than they seemed earlier this year. WaPo's Dan Balz kicks off the "Deciders" series "with a look from Colorado and how some women in Denver and its suburbs view the country, the issues, their families and themselves." 3. NYT's David Fahrenthold takes a look at the rapid rise and fall of J.D. VANCE's Our Ohio Renewal organization, which he launched in 2017 and shuttered in 2021. By his own telling, Vance started the effort because he saw the state "lacked a focused effort on solving the opioid crisis." But, Fahrenthold writes, "some of the nonprofit group's own workers said they had drawn a different conclusion: They had been lured by the promise of helping Ohio, but instead had been used to help Mr. Vance start his career in politics." Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: The 340B program may be driving up costs for some patients. A new analysis finds average costs per prescription for a patient is more than 150% greater at 340B hospitals than at non-340B hospitals. It's time to fix the 340B program. Learn more. | | | SUNDAY BEST … — STACEY ABRAMS on whether she's struggling to get sufficient Black voter support, on "Fox News Sunday": "I think it's a manufactured crisis designed to suppress turnout. And what I would say is if you look at my polling numbers and the polling numbers of my ticket mate, Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK, we are polling similarly well with Black voters. We know, however, that Black voters, like every voting population, deserves the respect of having someone come and speak with them, engage them." — Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.) on whether she'll back Biden in 2024, on NBC's "Meet the Press": "We need a new generation, we need new blood. Period. … But if the sitting president of the United States decides to run, we're going to support him." — Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) on whether he supports Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM's bill for a national 15-week abortion ban, on "Meet the Press": "On principle, I do because I think most voters support a 15-week ban. It's where Europe is at. Most free countries have gone there. But the reality is the Senate will not be able to pass that."
| | | | A message from PhRMA: It's time to fix the 340B program. Learn more. | | | TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week's must-read opinion pieces, curated by Zack Stanton. All politics …
The world …
Policy, ideas and culture …
BIDEN'S SUNDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule. VP KAMALA HARRIS' SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.
| | | | JOIN WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA: President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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A neighbor comforts a woman crying in front of her home damaged by flooding in Las Tejerias, Venezuela, on Sunday, Oct. 9. | Matias Delacroix/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | 
| BIG PICTURE ON DEMOGRAPHICS AND DESTINY — Florida Democrats' failure to hold on to Hispanic voters, the result of "years of neglect and cultural conservatism," is a potentially ominous omen for the party writ large, WaPo's Marianna Sotomayor and Silvia Foster-Frau report from Kissimmee. "Florida is emerging as a glaring warning for Democrats about what can happen if they do not aggressively court Hispanic voters in other states, some party strategists say." NOT MAKING A BANG — Our colleagues are up this morning with a pair of looks at hot-button issues that aren't creating such a wave in ad campaigns across the country: — Nicholas Wu and Jessica Piper report that Trump's cascading legal woes are nowhere to be found in messaging among key races in critical states. "Out of more than 5,800 distinct TV and digital ads since the Aug. 8 search of the former president's Florida property, fewer than 20 mentioned Mar-a-Lago or the Justice Department, according to a POLITICO analysis of ad transcripts maintained by AdImpact. Abortion and the economy-related ads are dominating in swing districts, according to the advertising data." — And Lisa Kashinsky writes that while DeSantis' move to send migrants to Martha's Vineyard dominated headlines, it never really broke through on the trail. "Immigration isn't leapfrogging abortion or the economy on lists of voters' top concerns in national polls and surveys in key battleground states. Spending on immigration-focused ads is up in Florida, Texas and Arizona … but not elsewhere." ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Trump was in Minden, Nev., on Saturday to rally for ADAM LAXALT, JOE LOMBARDO and the state's other top Republicans. Some of his comments were on message about crime and the economy in the Silver State. "But the majority of his remarks disregarded Nevada entirely," report The Nevada Independent's Sean Golonka and Carly Sauvageau . "Trump repeatedly attacked Democratic President Joe Biden, lamented the United States as a 'failing nation' and denounced investigations into his conduct as political attacks." — Speaking at the Nevada rally, Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) raised eyebrows with this comment: "They want reparations because they think the people who do the crime are owed that," he said. "Bullshit!" CRIME PAYS — "Democrats tried to pre-empt the GOP's 'soft on crime' attacks. It may not work," by NBC's Jonathan Allen and Sahil Kapur STATE OF PLAY — In a one-month-to-go preview, NYT's Shane Goldmacher, Reid Epstein and Jonathan Weisman report that control of the Senate will likely come down to Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Democrats need to run the table to hold on to the House. Big Republican super PAC spending is altering the landscape. Perhaps most notably, "the two parties have been talking almost entirely past each other both on the campaign trail and on the airwaves — disagreeing less over particular policies than debating entirely different lists of challenges and threats facing the nation," they write. "Come November, whichever party's issue set is more dominant in the minds of the electorate is expected to have the upper hand." BATTLE FOR THE SENATE STAND BY YOUR MAN — Despite unrelenting brutal stories for Walker in Georgia, the GOP is sticking with him: NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) and Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) will head to Georgia on Tuesday to support Walker, WaPo's Michael Scherer and Annie Linskey scooped. "I'm on Herschel's team — they picked the wrong Georgian to mess with," Scott said in a statement. KNOWING DON BOLDUC — "The Retreat of the MAGA General," by Kevin Maurer for Rolling Stone: "How did Don Bolduc, a straight-shooting war hero, become the GOP Senate candidate in New Hampshire by embracing the big lie and calling Democrats the 'enemy'?" BATTLE FOR THE STATES STORM CHASING — Florida Dems worry that Biden's praise for DeSantis after Hurricane Ian has all but dashed their hopes of unseating him, CNN's Steve Contorno reports. For Rep. CHARLIE CRIST to catch up to DeSantis, they say, the contours of the race needed to change. Instead, Ian "has pushed politics to the back burner." LAKE WOEBEGONE — At an Arizona gubernatorial candidate town hall recorded early last week, Lake showed up in the front row for KATIE HOBBS' taping, resulting in a minor kerfuffle before she agreed to leave, NBC's Marc Caputo scooped. Lake reportedly said Hobbs should debate her (the Democrat has refused to do so). One independent staffer for an event co-sponsor "believes Lake's actions were a stunt designed to rattle Hobbs, which he said appeared to work, because the Democrat gave an uneven performance in his view." CASH DASH — New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL raised $11.1 million from the middle of July to this month, dwarfing Rep. LEE ZELDIN's hauls, NYT's Nicholas Fandos reports. But thanks in part to super PACs, Zeldin is poised "to remain competitive in the race's final weeks." DOWN-BALLOT DEMOCRACY WATCH — "Nevada Democrats sound alarm as election denier leads secretary of state race," by NBC's Adam Edelman KNOWING TUDOR DIXON — The Daily Beast's Sam Brodey goes deep on the Michigan Republican gubernatorial nominee's years on the Real America's Voice network, where her show "served as a platform for a parade of fringe characters, who amplified a range of conspiracy theories." Dixon's RAV experience catered to a far-right audience fleeing Fox News for not being conservative enough, with ties to STEVE BANNON and other big names in that world. THE SOUND OF SILENCE — "Mastriano's unconventional campaign may be quietly building support, despite poll numbers," Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "Experts and insiders say it's certainly in the realm of possibility that [DOUG] MASTRIANO has an underrepresented base of support, but note that there are key differences between his underdog narrative and, say, GLENN YOUNGKIN's campaign for governor in Virginia or Mr. Trump's." UNDER THE RADAR — South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM is bolstering her credentials for 2024 or beyond by stumping for other candidates around the country. But in her own reelection bid, "her frequent out-of-state travels, as well as recent ethics stumbles, have given Democrats license to dream of an upset," AP's Stephen Groves and Jonathan Cooper report. Democrat JAMIE SMITH is still a long shot, but he's running a positive campaign that some Dems think has narrowed the gap. SWING-STATE SURPRISE — "Michigan GOP statewide candidates stick to far-right message," by AP's Joey Cappelletti in Warren, Mich. HOT POLLS — Wisconsin: It's Sen. RON JOHNSON 50%, MANDELA BARNES 49% in the latest CBS survey. The governor's race is even tighter: incumbent TONY EVERS is tied with TIM MICHELS at 50% apiece. But CBS finds Republicans have a turnout edge, with Johnson's voters more enthusiastic about November than Barnes' backers. — Michigan: Democratic Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER has a lead over Dixon, per CBS, but with a smaller margin than other surveys have found: 53%-47%. — Oklahoma: Sooner Poll has Democratic gubernatorial contender JOY HOFMEISTER leading incumbent GOP Gov. KEVIN STITT, 47% to 43% — a surprising result for the red state.
| | | | A message from PhRMA:   It's time to fix the 340B program. Learn more. | | | 5 MORE THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. PULLOUT FALLOUT: Top officials from the CIA and State Department met with Taliban officials in Qatar on Saturday, their first in-person meeting since the U.S. killed AYMAN AL-ZAWAHRI in Afghanistan this summer, CNN's Alex Marquardt scooped. "The presence of CIA Deputy Director DAVID COHEN and the Taliban's [ABDUL HAQ] WASIQ at the meeting on Saturday indicates an emphasis on counterterrorism." 2. FED UP: Is the central bank getting too hawkish on fighting inflation? WSJ's Nick Timiraos reports that some economists are sounding the alarm that Chair JEROME POWELL could drive the country into a worse recession than necessary with a succession of aggressive interest rate hikes. But the Fed isn't backing down: There's broad agreement among officials at the bank that another big hike is coming, likely 0.75 percentage points, Bloomberg's Craig Torres and Rich Miller report. The policymakers want to get up to 4.5% benchmark interest rates and then keep them around that level, with little likely to deter them as long as inflation remains stubbornly high. 3. LITTLE ROCKET MAN: Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remained high Sunday as North Korea launched a pair of short-range ballistic missiles in the wake of joint U.S.-South Korean exercises, per the AP. But South Korea responded that it planned to bolster defense cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, per Bloomberg. 4. MAN OF STEELE: The JOHN DURHAM-led prosecution of IGOR DANCHENKO, whose trial for lying to the FBI regarding the Steele dossier kicks off this week, "now appears likely to be shorter and less politically salient than the sprawling narrative in Mr. Durham's indictment had suggested the proceeding would be," NYT's Charlie Savage and Adam Goldman report. The judge has substantially narrowed what evidence Durham can include, diminishing the broader significance of the trial. 5. GAETZ-GATE LATEST: "The Justice Department's sex trafficking investigation into Rep. Matt Gaetz seems stalled, attorneys say," by NBC's Marc Caputo: "The attorneys briefed on aspects of the case say federal investigators appear stymied by concerns about the credibility of two key witnesses or a lack of direct evidence implicating [Rep. MATT] GAETZ, who has denied all wrongdoing."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Sean Casten revealed that his teenage daughter Gwen died of a sudden cardiac arrhythmia this summer: "We are left grasping at the wrong end of random chance. … She had a big, beautiful, kind, loving heart. And it stopped, as all must." Sherrod Brown and Connie Schultz stayed for all 15 innings of the Cleveland Guardians' home game playoff win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Marcelle Leahy got a University of Vermont research vessel named after her. WHAT PLAYBOOKERS ARE READING: A roundup of the most-clicked links from the past week in Playbook. 1. Rolling Stone's profile of Michael Fanone 2. "Five takeaways from Budd and Beasley's Senate debate in NC," by the News and Observer's Danielle Battaglia 3. "Rep. Stevens, husband getting divorced after year of marriage," by the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke 4. The Gratiot County Republican Party's Facebook ad 5. "Mar-a-Lago Documents Included Pardons, Emails, Legal Bills," by Bloomberg's Zoe Tillman FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten is heading this week to Ukraine, where she'll meet with displaced students and teachers and help distribute materials in Lviv. Weingarten will then speak at a rally in Poland on Friday. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party for Julia Boorstin's new book, "When Women Lead: What They Achieve, Why They Succeed, and How We Can Learn from Them" ( $29.99), hosted by Alexa Chopivsky, Amanda Miller and Juleanna Glover at Glover's house on Saturday night: Josh Dawsey, Olivia Troye, Kevin Cirilli, Eli Yokley and Evan Hollander, Michael Schaffer, Molly Ball and David Kihara, Judy Kurtz, Michael Hirsh, Sophia Narrett, Douglas Rediker, Christina Sevilla and Steve Rochlin, Jamie Kirchick and Josef Palermo, Nina Rees, Kevin Chaffee, Alexa Verveer and Adam Goldberg, Kayla Tausche and Carol Melton. TRANSITION — Bradley Saull is now VP at Jefferson Business Consulting. He most recently was a federal civilian market strategist at Dell Technologies, and is a Bush DHS and House Homeland Security Committee alum. ENGAGED — Greg Hughes, a producer for CNN's "State of the Union," proposed to Molly Nagle , a White House producer/reporter for ABC News, on Saturday at St. Dunstan-in-the-East while on vacation in London to visit friends. The two met at ABC when they both started working there in 2015. Pic … Another pic WEDDINGS — Michelle Greenhalgh, director of legislative affairs for the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration and a Joe Courtney and Jeanne Shaheen alum, and Matt Diller, policy director for the House Rules Committee and Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), eloped and got married in a private ceremony at Cape Hatteras, N.C., on Wednesday. The two met in 2017 while working for their respective House and Senate appropriators' offices. Pic — Paige Hopkins, a reporter for Axios D.C., and Jeremy Coffey, an assistant project manager for Harvey-Cleary Builders, got married Friday at Separk Mansion in Gastonia, N.C., right outside of Charlotte, where they're both from. They met on Easter Sunday 2018 when a mutual family friend introduced the two after church. Pic … Another pic — Rachel Weisel, associate director of comms at Pew Research Center, and Joshua Drian, partner at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, got married Oct. 2 in her hometown of St. Louis, at the World's Fair Pavilion in Forest Park. They met on Hinge in November 2018.Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: WaPo's Aaron Blake … NPR's Juana Summers … Justin Barasky of Left Hook … Rachel Pearson … former Reps. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) and Artur Davis (D-Ala.) … E&E News' Arianna Skibell … Protocol's Anna Kramer … Chris Kofinis of Park Street Strategies … Peter Billerbeck of House Foreign Affairs … Jodie Kelley of the Electronic Transactions Association … Becki Donatelli … ABC's Justin Fishel … Russell Dye of Rep. Jim Jordan's (R-Ohio) office … Kat Skiles of Narrative Creative Agency … Meta's Carrie Adams … Shailagh Murray … Ryan Ramsey … Michael Tubman … Peterson Institute for International Economics' Chad Brown (5-0) … Clare Krupin … McKinsey & Company's David Bibo … C-SPAN founder Brian Lamb … Russell Moore of Christianity Today … Miles Taylor Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: The 340B program grew, yet again, hitting a whopping $43.9 billion in sales at the discounted 340B price in 2021. But there has not been evidence of corresponding growth in care provided to vulnerable patients at 340B covered entities. And making matters worse, fresh data show that 340B may actually be driving up costs for some patients and our health care system as whole. The program of today is having the opposite effect of what Congress intended when they created 340B. That's a problem. It's time to fix the 340B program. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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