Wednesday, April 6, 2022

The return of immigration politics

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

JUST POSTED — On the new cover of Bloomberg Businessweek is Josh Green's newsy profile of DAVID MCCORMICK, who is in a hot GOP Senate primary in Pennsylvania against MEHMET OZ. There's a lot of news in the piece, but two fun things immediately grabbed our attention: the great cover — "The Hedge Fund CEO Who Went Full MAGA" — and Green's impromptu interview with Oz, who rarely talks to national reporters, in a men's room minutes before a recent campaign event in Blue Bell.

Here's the exclusive backstory from Green on how it came about: "I just walked in and he was the only guy there so it seemed like an opportune moment to get his thoughts on the race. I introduced myself and he was really eager to talk."

Oz finished his business, ripped into McCormick while washing his hands, exchanged emails with Green and then left to greet the audience.

IMMIGRATION POLITICS BREAK UP THE SCHUMER-ROMNEY BROMANCE — Sen. MITT ROMNEY is having a bipartisan moment.

The Utah Republican kept everyone in suspense until Monday on how he would vote on KETANJI BROWN JACKSON's confirmation. He voted against confirming her to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit last year, but flipped and will now vote to confirm her to the Supreme Court.

Six weeks ago, House Democrats blew up a bipartisan deal on Covid funding when they stripped $15 billion in pandemic relief money from a bill to fund the government. President JOE BIDEN and Democrats scrambled to find a way to pass a stand-alone bill, and they needed a GOP partner.

Romney stepped in and spent the last month and a half negotiating with Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and the White House. They announced a $10 billion deal Monday.

On Tuesday, it fell apart. 

There's often a moment in an election year when bipartisan compromises — never easy in the best of circumstances — become almost impossible.

The Schumer-Romney deal was torpedoed by immigration policy. There's a good reason Biden wanted his Covid request tucked into a $1.5 trillion spending bill. As a stand-alone request, it could easily become the target of election-year mischief.

As the Schumer-Romney talks neared completion, the Biden administration handed Republicans a weapon. On Friday, the CDC announced the end of Title 42, the authority used by DONALD TRUMP at the start of the pandemic to shut down the asylum system. Hundreds of thousands of migrants who would normally be allowed to seek asylum under U.S. law were simply expelled instead.

In the Trump years, when the president sought to downplay the virus and emphasize a return to normalcy, Democrats noted that the policy didn't apply to Title 42, which Biden left in place.

Now, as Biden points out that the Covid funds are desperately needed because the pandemic is still not over, Republicans insist that Title 42 should stay in place. On Tuesday, they demanded a vote on an amendment to the Schumer-Romney Covid funding deal. Schumer balked and tried to press ahead with the legislation anyway. It was that move that bothered Romney, who didn't have a heads-up and was supposed to be briefing his fellow Republicans on the deal when he learned about it. (Schumer needed 10 Republicans to join with all 50 Dems; the vote failed.)

There is a good chance that if a vote on the Title 42 amendment were allowed, it would pass. Most of the vulnerable Senate Democrats up for election this year, such as MAGGIE HASSAN (N.H.), RAPHAEL WARNOCK (Ga.) and MARK KELLY (Ariz.), have leveled stinging criticism at the Biden administration for rescinding the policy without a detailed plan to grapple with the increase in migrants. Moderates who aren't in tough races, such as Sens. JOE MANCHIN (W.Va.), KYRSTEN SINEMA (Ariz.) and JON TESTER (Mont.), have joined them. Progressives have just as forcefully pushed Biden from the opposite direction, and if the Covid bill is sent to the House with language reinstating Title 42, it is unlikely to pass. Even if it somehow did, it's hard to see Biden signing it into law.

But even if he does, one big takeaway from Tuesday's clash is that immigration has returned to the center of politics in a major way. (Just turn on Fox News.) The spring migrant surge at the border, especially after May 23, when Title 42 officially ends, will be dramatic. Our latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll (more below) shows that 56% of voters oppose Biden's Title 42 decision, including 88% of Republicans, 52% of independents and 26% of Democrats.

The GOP smells blood on this issue. Democrats are defensive about it. It's not going away. Further reading:

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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MAJORITY WANTS THOMAS TO RECUSE — While all eyes are on the likely impending confirmation of Jackson to the Supreme Court, new polling out today from POLITICO/Morning Consult takes a look at current Justice CLARENCE THOMAS a week after the revelation that his wife, VIRGINIA, exchanged texts with MARK MEADOWS in which she advocated for overturning the results of the 2020 election.

A chart shows the percentages of registered voters who believe Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas should remove himself from cases related to the 2020 election due to his wife Virginia Thomas' actions.

Some toplines:

  • More than half of voters (53%) believe that Justice Thomas should recuse himself from all cases related to the 2020 election because of Ginni Thomas' actions. That includes 76% of Democrats, 52% of independents and nearly one-third (31%) of Republicans.
  • The percentage of voters with an unfavorable view of Justice Thomas (36%) has increased by 12 points since late February, and his favorability (28%) has decreased by five points. Toplines Crosstabs
 

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BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY:

— 10:15 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 12:45 p.m.: Biden will address the North America's Building Trades Unions Legislative Conference at the Washington Hilton.

— 4:15 p.m.: Biden will sign into law the Postal Service Reform Act of 2022.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' WEDNESDAY — The VP will ceremonially swear in RANDI CHARNO LEVINE to be U.S. ambassador to Portugal at 1:50 p.m.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2:30 p.m.

THE SENATE will meet at 10 a.m. to take up Jackson's nomination. At 11:45 a.m., the Senate will vote on JAMES O'BRIEN's nomination to head the State Department Office of Sanctions Coordination. EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN will testify before the Environment and Public Works Committee at 10 a.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m., and at noon will take up various bills, including a resolution to find PETER NAVARRO and DAN SCAVINO in contempt of Congress. HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA will testify before the Education and Labor Committee and Budget Committee at 9 a.m. and 2 p.m., respectively. CIS Director UR JADDOU and VA Secretary DENIS MCDONOUGH will testify before Appropriations subcommittees at 10 a.m. and 10:30 a.m., respectively. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN will testify before the Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. NTSB Chair JENNIFER HOMENDY will testify before the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee at 10 a.m.

 

DON'T MISS ANYTHING FROM THE 2022 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from the 25th annual Global Conference. This year's event, May 1-4, brings together more than 3,000 of the world's most influential leaders, including 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. "Celebrating the Power of Connection" is this year's theme, setting the stage to connect influencers with the resources to change the world with leading experts and thinkers whose insight and creativity can implement that change. Whether you're attending in person or following along from somewhere else in the world, keep up with this year's conference with POLITICO's special edition "Global Insider" so you don't miss a beat. Subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Vice President Kamala Harris reacts as President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama shake hands on stage after Obama called Biden

Barack Obama returns to the White House on Tuesday, joking with President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris. | AP

PLAYBOOK READS

TRUMP CARDS

HOT ON THE RIGHT — A new filing from special counsel JOHN DURHAM provides more evidence that could strengthen his case against Democratic-linked lawyer MICHAEL SUSSMANN for allegedly lying to the FBI, NYT's Charlie Savage reports : "Sussmann is facing trial next month on a charge that he falsely told an F.B.I. official that he was not at the meeting [in Sept. 2016 about Donald Trump's possible ties to Russia] on behalf of any client … [In] the new filing … Durham says that the night before Mr. Sussmann's meeting, he had texted the F.B.I. official stating that 'I'm coming on my own — not on behalf of a client or company — want to help the bureau.'"

— The step back: The filings "suggest that the special counsel may use the trial to continue to examine larger efforts linked to the Clinton campaign that raised suspicions about potential collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia — including the so-called Steele dossier."

CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR — The FEC's fine on HILLARY CLINTON last week was cause for celebration in MAGA world. But on the same day, a watchdog group filed a complaint with the FEC alleging the same clerical violation from the Trump 2020 campaign — for a dollar amount about 800 times higher, The Daily Beast's Roger Sollenberger reports.

PALM BEACH MOOD MUSIC — "2020 election claims dominate lively night for Trump, allies at Mar-a-Lago," by WaPo's Josh Dawsey

CONGRESS 

THE TRUMP EFFECT — In the middle of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 63 House Republicans voted against a pro-NATO resolution Tuesday that applauded the alliance and urged further action to strengthen democracy. Insider reports that the group included "Trump's most loyal defenders in Congress, among them: Reps. LAUREN BOEBERT of Colorado; MADISON CAWTHORN of North Carolina; MATT GAETZ of Florida; PAUL GOSAR of Arizona; MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE of Georgia; and JIM JORDAN of Ohio." But there were a few surprises, like BRIAN MAST (Fla.), who went on Fox News and blasted Biden for being weak against Russia, specifically on fighter jets.

SINEMATOGRAPHY — When it comes to the prospect of Build Back Better 2.0, most eyes are focused on Manchin. But Sinema recently told donors that she thinks that agenda plan is dead and "a path to revival is unlikely," Axios' Hans Nichols reported . "No one's reached out to Sinema about the contours of the slimmed-down deal Manchin has discussed," he writes, and the Arizonan is telling donors she's more focused on Covid aid, the China competitiveness bill and Electoral Count Act reform.

THERE'S A NEW MODERATE IN TOWN — It's not just Manchin and Sinema anymore. Increasingly, Kelly is breaking with the Biden administration — on Title 42, oil drilling, the gas tax, the ambassadorial nomination of ERIC GARCETTI and more, Burgess Everett reports. Unlike Manchin and Sinema, of course, Kelly is up for reelection this year — which is likely why he's carving out a space for himself that's a bit different than simple adherence to party-line positions. Still, his "vote against DAVID WEIL to be wage administrator for the Labor Department shocked party leaders." And progressives have taken notice.

ALL POLITICS

We've got a trio of POLITICO politics stories up this morning that are worth your time: 

1) Zach Montellaro reports that Republican primaries for governor are as Trumpy as ever.

2) Matt Dixon has a RON DESANTIS bit from Florida, reporting that the governor is using his clout with Republican voters to elevate political allies throughout the state, marking the notoriously insular pol's first real effort to build a network.

3) And Sarah Ferris has a look at how House moderates are throwing their political muscle behind more centrist candidates in primaries around the country after the 2020 election where they lost almost a dozen members, most of whom were moderates.

WOLVERINE STATE DEMS: MOVE OVER, IOWA — Michigan Democrats are plotting a bid to leapfrog Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, and go first in the presidential nominating primaries, WaPo's Michael Scherer reports.

— Watch the ringleader: "Rep. DEBBIE DINGELL (D-Mich.) said Tuesday that she had spoken with stakeholders throughout the state, including the office of Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.), about putting together a bid later this spring, when the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee is expected to open the process for applications for the next nomination order. Others spoke on the condition of anonymity to reflect private conversations."

— The pitch, per Dingell: "First of all, [Michigan is] purple. The issues we are facing reflect the diversity of what the country is facing, from rural areas to urban areas, manufacturing areas to farming areas. We are a mini-America."

ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Republican CONNIE CONWAY advanced to the runoff in the special election Tuesday to fill former Rep. DEVIN NUNES' House seat, per the L.A. Times. It was too close to call who would advance alongside her, but Democrat LOURIN HUBBARD is currently in second. The GOP is considered the favorite here.

GUESS WHO'S BACK — Ben Schreckinger is out with a major POLITICO Magazine profile of former Rep. RON PAUL (R-Texas), whose acolytes glommed onto cryptocurrency and "have gone on to win far more victories with computer code than they ever had at the ballot box." Paul devotees see crypto as an opportunity to wrest control of the monetary system from the government — at which point, "they say that Washington will have no choice but to contend with an economic vision that once seemed destined for obscurity." Ben describes Paul as "downright giddy" about the development. "I'm more convinced than ever," Paul says, "and our numbers are growing."

THAT WAS FAST — "Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich flips endorsement in House race -- and then flips it back," CNN

 

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE NEXT ABORTION RIGHTS FLASHPOINT — Oklahoma state legislators on Tuesday passed what would be the nation's strictest abortion ban — outlawing the procedure in every instance except to save the life of the pregnant person. If Republican Gov. KEVIN STITT signs the bill, you can expect that it will be challenged in court. More from Tulsa World

THE NEXT LGBTQ RIGHTS FLASHPOINT — Ohio Republicans on Tuesday introduced a bill modeled on the controversial Florida law that would restrict most teaching about sexual orientation and gender identity to young kids, which opponents of similar laws say isn't actually happening in schools and could harm vulnerable children. Details from The Columbus Dispatch

ELECTION SETBACK FOR AZ GOP — Citing a technical issue, the Arizona Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected a bid by the state Republican Party to dismantle the early voting system, which the vast majority of Arizonans use. The GOP could yet re-file suit in Superior Court. More from the Arizona Republic

POLICY CORNER

RECESSION WATCH — Even with the economy booming, the prospect of Fed action to tackle inflation and other global uncertainties have some economists warning of recession, NYT's Ben Casselman reports. He notes that "a majority of forecasters say a recession remains unlikely in the next year," but growth will likely slow and plenty of factors could upend expectations.

— Deutsche Bank went there Tuesday, becoming the first major bank to predict that the Fed's inflation-fighting measures will drive the U.S. into recession in late 2023. More from CNN

UNCLE SAM'S TAX OOPS  — The U.S. government could lose out on billions of dollars after a judge ruled Tuesday that a 2019 Treasury action to try to close a loophole in the 2017 tax law was implemented improperly, WSJ's Richard Rubin reports.

WHAT MICHAEL REGAN IS UP TO — Regulators have been trying to ban asbestos for decades. The Biden administration took another shot at it Tuesday with a new, landmark proposed EPA rule to bar its most common form. More from E&E News

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

THE BIG PICTURE — The federal grand jury empaneled as part of DOJ's Jan. 6 investigation could ultimately call a sprawling list of witnesses stretching into the hundreds, NYT's Alan Feuer, Luke Broadwater and Maggie Haberman report in a breakdown of a jury subpoena they obtained. It's early days yet for this investigation. But the list could encompass everyone from members of Congress to "Stop the Steal" rally organizers to top Trump aides.

WAR IN UKRAINE

LATEST ON THE GROUND …

— Parade of horrors: Adding to the list of reported brutalities out of towns where Russians withdrew, AP's Oleksandr Stashevskyi saw a pile of six burned, blackened bodies in Bucha. One was a child.

— Another site of death we're just learning about after Russians left: Borodyanka, a Kyiv commuter town where officials think strikes killed 200 people and, writes NYT's Carlotta Gall, there is "evidence that civilian buildings were indiscriminately targeted."

— Heartbreaking read: Motyzhyn Mayor OLHA SUKHENKO, whose body was found, hands bound, with those of her family when Russians withdrew from the town, has become a much-loved, much-mourned symbol of recent brutality, WSJ's James Marson reports (alongside some very tough photos).

REACTION IN THE WEST …

— The latest U.S. aid: The administration announced another tranche of $100 million for Javelin missiles for Ukraine, per NBC.

— The Pentagon is changing its long-term Europe plans in light of the war, as high-level discussions weigh what kind of presence the U.S. should maintain near Russia even as the military tries to pivot toward China, WaPo's Dan Lamothe reports.

— Yellen will warn Congress today that Russia's aggression "will have enormous economic repercussions in Ukraine and beyond," NYT's Alan Rappeport reports in a preview of her testimony.

— NATO will largely defer to Ukraine in any eventual peace deal, but "there are limits to how many compromises some in NATO will support to win the peace," WaPo's Michael Birnbaum and Missy Ryan report.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

THE IMPEACHMENT STORY YOU NEVER HEARD — A shameless self-plug this morning: Rachael's new book, "UNCHECKED: The untold story behind Congress's botched impeachments of Donald Trump" — co-authored with WaPo's Karoun Demirjian and published by William Morrow of HarperCollins — now has a cover and is open for pre-orders . Sourced from more than 250 interviews with the major Hill characters involved in the attempts to oust Trump, the book, which comes out Sept. 27, is a critical investigative look at what went wrong and is chock full of scoops in every chapter about the breakdown of Hill oversight during Trump's presidency.

Twitter says it's testing out an edit button option — and newly minted board member Elon Musk absolutely, positively had nothing to do with it.

Mr. Popularity Barack Obama held court and stole a bit of spotlight from Joe Biden.

FOX NEWS — It was the talk of the Hill on Tuesday: a bushy-tailed red fox trotting around the Capitol grounds in the middle of D.C., nipping at passersby's heels. The little stinker, who now has his own parody Twitter account, got Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.), who, according to CQ Roll Call's Chris Marquette , "said he got seven shots total after being bitten … [and] went to Walter Reed at the recommendation of Congress' attending physician." The fox also bit our colleague Ximena Bustillo, who had this to say: "It bit me. All I wanted was to write Morning Ag."

Capitol Police officers reported later Tuesday that they'd captured the little guy. ( Pics here.) Personally, we think Bera should just adopt him and keep him as a mascot in his office now that they've bonded. Congress Minutes has the take.

GRIDIRON COVID HOTSPOT? — Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) announced on Twitter on Tuesday afternoon that he has Covid, though is only experiencing mild symptoms. A few hours later, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) did the same. What do both men have in common? They attended the Gridiron dinner Saturday. They're not alone. We're hearing from multiple people there that since the event, several reporters have also tested positive. So test accordingly if you were there!

THE AWARD GOES TO — The National Magazine Awards were handed out Tuesday night. Among the winners: The Atlantic and Harper's Bazaar for general excellence, Matthieu Aikins' NYT Magazine story on the fall of Kabul, Jennifer Senior's Atlantic story on the long tail of 9/11, Luke Mogelson's New Yorker video from inside the Jan. 6 insurrection, and Azmat Khan's NYT Magazineinvestigations into the civilian toll of U.S. airstrikes in the war against ISIS.

OUT AND ABOUT — AMC Networks hosted a reception and pre-screening of "61st Street," an upcoming legal drama show based in Chicago created by Peter Moffat that is set to premiere Sunday, at the National Museum of African American History and Culture on Tuesday night. SPOTTED: Dan McDermott, Courtney B. Vance, Andrene Ward-Hammond, Peter Moffat, J. David Shanks, Alana Mayo, Reps. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.), Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), Antonio Delgado (D-N.Y.) and Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), Kamau Marshall, Tasha Cole, Deborah Berry and Kim McMillian.

— SPOTTED at a bon voyage party Tuesday night at the Meridian International Center for incoming U.S. Ambassador to Portugal Randi Charno Levine: hosts Susanna Quinn, Jeff Levine, Kristin Cecchi and Stephanie Cutter, Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Abby Blunt, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) and Megan Beyer, Elaine Chao, Ann Stock, Rickie Niceta, Jennifer Griffin, Jack Quinn, Marc Adelman, John McCarthy, Susan Brophy, Stuart and Gwen Holliday, Nancy Bagley and Soroush Shehabi, Wayne and Cathy Reynolds, Patrick Steel, Katie Petrelius, Rachel Pearson and Tracy Bernstein.

— SPOTTED at a party for Ari Mittleman's new book, "Paths of the Righteous" ($14.99 ), hosted by Marilyn Rosenthal, David Gillette, Lesli Reinstein Rosenblatt and Mark Tavlarides on Tuesday: Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), Tim Wirth and Tara Brown. Pic

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — James Steinberg is joining Dentons Global Advisors-Albright Stonebridge Group as a senior counselor. He currently is dean of Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and is an Obama State Department and Clinton White House alum.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE: Ruben Gonzales is joining the White House's Presidential Personnel Office as special assistant to the president for domestic agency personnel. He's currently at the LGBTQ Victory Institute, where he leads their personnel work, and is a CHC Institute alum. (h/t Daniel Lippman)

Mark Paustenbach has joined Assemble as a partner and head of strategic advisory and comms services. He previously was SVP at Rokk Solutions, and is a Biden and Treasury alum.

TRANSITIONS — Kristina Schake has been named EVP for global comms at the Walt Disney Co. She most recently led Biden's Covid vaccine education campaign at HHS, and is an Instagram, Hillary for America and Obama White House alum. … Jason Galanes is now chief of staff for Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio). He previously was chief of staff for Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-N.J.).

BIRTHWEEK (was Tuesday): CDC Director Rochelle Walensky

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) … Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz … White House's Anthony Bernal … MPA's Charles Rivkin (6-0) … NYT's Glenn ThrushCindy Terrell … WSJ's Keach HageyRon BrownsteinJoyce Meyer … POLITICO's Tucker Doherty, Ale Waase and Ross Krytusa  … former Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) … Richard CoolidgeEmma Thomson of Rep. Jackie Walorski's (R-Ind.) office … Olivia Perez-Cubas … CNN's Sunlen Serfaty Matt FlynnJuliana Darrow The New Republic's Ryan KearneyAndy Oare … Business Roundtable's Rayna FarrellMegan BartleyMelissa Kelly Kevin O'Hanlon … Boeing's Alex TripianoLucy WestcottMelissa SchwartzYuval Levin Ann Castagnetti Scott Reed Lisa Ellman Casey Farrington ... John Lechner

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