🤫 Russia's 30-day blitz

Plus: Spam-filter party politics | Sunday, April 10, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Southern Company   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team · Apr 10, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Boris Johnson and Volodymyr Zelensky teamed up for a viral video from the heart of Kyiv. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,062 words ... 4 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: Russia's 30-day blitz Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images   The next four weeks — leading up to an annual Victory Day celebration in Moscow — are a crucial and intensely dangerous period in Russia's war on Ukraine, U.S. officials and others familiar with Russian military history tell Axios' Glen Johnson. Why it matters: May 9 is a major holiday in the Russian Federation, with the country closing down each year to mark its World War II victory over the Nazis. That makes it a deadline with significant symbolism in Russian domestic politics. Russia either may be repelled in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region by then and forced to claim false victories — or have used a brutal assault to cinch a strategic win. Any momentum would feed a push westward toward Kyiv. What they're saying: A senior Defense Department official told Axios on Thursday the U.S. and other allies are rushing myriad forms of military assistance to Ukraine knowing the stakes of the next month. Separately, retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, a former infantry officer and National Security Council director of European affairs, told Axios today: "This is, actually, a bit more of a dangerous situation, more of a turning point, than anything we've seen thus far." "Russia can achieve objectives here," said Vindman, a Ukraine-born, naturalized American citizen and Iraq combat veteran who testified at former President Trump's first impeachment trial. "I think that, if Russia were to lose, it would be spent" and only able to hold the territory it had. "But, if they succeed, I fear, it's a recipe for a protracted war, and Russia will not stop at limited gains. Protracted war is a recipe for spillage over into, potentially, confrontation with NATO." Keep reading.     2. Your spam filter's party preference Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios   It turns out spam filters have their own partisan divide. Driving the news: New research reviewed by Axios' Lachlan Markay shows Gmail was substantially more likely to mark Republican fundraising emails as spam during the heat of the 2020 campaign, while Yahoo and Outlook disproportionately flagged Democratic ones. Why it matters: Email forms a huge and growing part of both parties' fundraising operations. Any disparity in the messages making it into recipients' inboxes can have huge effects on message dissemination and fundraising during the crucial months leading up to an election. A new study from North Carolina State University shows that disparity can be significant, allowing candidates from one party to reach more donors than their opposition, depending on the email services those donors use. Email providers point to factors such as past user behavior to explain the disparity and dismiss any suggestion of platform bias. The research nonetheless shows potential pitfalls in political candidates' dependence on third-party technology vendors whose products frequently rely on opaque algorithms. What they're saying: A Google spokesperson told Axios: "Political affiliation has absolutely no bearing on mail classifications in Gmail and we've debunked this suggestion, which has surfaced periodically from across the political spectrum, for many years." A Microsoft spokesperson said. "To make sure that customers do not receive unwanted or inappropriate email messages, we use anti-spam technology. ... Occasionally, some wanted communications may be filtered unintentionally and users can create exemptions for any filtered mail that they want to receive." Yahoo didn't respond to Axios' inquiries about the study. Keep reading.     3. By the numbers: Congressional margins Data: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios History bears out the political trope that the president's party loses seats in the midterms: there's rarely been an exception in modern elections, Axios' Sarah Mucha reports. Why it matters: Both Democrats and Republicans are gearing up for an intense midterm season this fall, expanding their battlegrounds with the elections only about six months away. A Democratic loss would inhibit President Biden from passing the rest of his political agenda. Reps. Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio) and Fred Upton (R-Mich.) recently announced they wouldn't seek re-election this year. That brings the total number of Republican retirements to just 18, compared to the Democrats' 31. The details: The president's party consistently receives a lower share of the House vote — the average of each major-party's vote in each of the 435 House districts — during the midterms than during the prior presidential election. In 2014, the middle of President Obama's second term, Republicans had a net gain of 13 seats in the House. And in 2020, Democrats actually lost seats, despite a Democratic president's win. They were still able to hold the majority, but only barely. What we're watching: Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report predicted last week the likely scenario for this fall's midterms is a Republican gain in the 15-25 seat range. Keep reading.     A message from Southern Company Make caring for the planet your job with help from Mother Earth     Follow Mother Earth and find opportunities to make a difference. Take on the job of caring for our planet together. Because the responsibility to protect our planet does not belong to any one person — it belongs to us all. It's not too late if we work together.     4. Worthy of your time President Biden receives a palm frond as he leaves Mass on the eve of Palm Sunday. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images   🇫🇷 Marine Le Pen emerged as the victorious rival to French President Emmanuel Macron in the first round of France's presidential election. They'll have their 2017 rematch on April 24, Axios' Andrew Solender reports in tonight's roundup. 🇷🇺 Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., said on CBS' "Face the Nation" that Russians involved in war crimes during Russia's invasion of Ukraine should be prosecuted "everywhere," adding, "There should be no place on Earth where they can hide." 🔎 Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), vice chair of the Jan. 6 select committee, said on CNN's "State of the Union" that former White House senior adviser Ivanka Trump's testimony to the panel was "helpful," and that they have enough evidence to "very clearly demonstrate the extent of the planning." 🐘 Fox News host Maria Bartiromo asked House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy whether Republicans will try to impeach Biden if they take back Congress. He said that "if someone breaks the law ... we would move toward that," but "we're not going to use it for political purposes." 🏛️ Both chambers of Congress are in recess, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Democrats in a letter that, when they return, the House will "continue our laser focus on lowering costs, increasing paychecks and creating jobs for America's families," as well as "preserving democracy here at home and around the world." 🦠 NIAID Director Anthony Fauci said on ABC's "This Week" that "pulling back on mitigation methods" amid the spread of a new COVID-19 variant is the cause of a recent uptick in cases. He added that while this spike may be less severe, "we may need to revert back to being more careful and having more utilization of masks indoors."     5. Pic du jour Via Twitter   The official White House Twitter account posted an insider photo of Friday's celebration for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson's elevation to the Supreme Court.     A message from Southern Company Make caring for the planet your job with help from Mother Earth     Follow Mother Earth and find opportunities to make a difference. Take on the job of caring for our planet together. Because the responsibility to protect our planet does not belong to any one person — it belongs to us all. It's not too late if we work together.   🚀 Thanks for starting your week with us! Please tell your family, friends and colleagues they can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. Like this email style and format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. 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