News : The next legislative pile-up is coming

Tuesday, October 12, 2021

The next legislative pile-up is coming

Oct 12, 2021

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By Rachael Bade, Tara Palmeri, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING — With the exception of today — when the House briefly returns to clear the Senate-passed, short-term debt ceiling stopgap — Congress is out on recess this week after lawmakers kicked the can on their entire legislative to-do list.

The big question on everyone's mind right now is this: Will the delay help them get it all done, or just make matters worse?

Two buckets to watch in the coming weeks:

1) THE BIDEN AGENDA: Moderate Democrats — not to mention Virginia gubernatorial candidate TERRY McAULIFFE — are still smarting from the president's decision to delay what they saw (too optimistically) as a quick and easy win on the bipartisan infrastructure proposal. Progressives are bitter that their hopes for a $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill are dead. And there's a real question about the prospects for compromise when each side feels betrayed, lied to and/or misled by the other, as well as their own party leaders.

Don't forget: Speaker NANCY PELOSI wants congressional Democrats to clear both bills by Halloween, two weeks after members return from recess. (Stop us if you've heard this before…)

2) MUST-PASS LEGISLATION — If you thought the recent debt ceiling showdown was ugly, wait til it comes around again in December. Relations between CHUCK SCHUMER and MITCH McCONNELL hit possibly a new low after Schumer rubbed McConnell's nose in his agreement to delay the debt ceiling fight. Now McConnell is being attacked by DONALD TRUMP as well and is vowing not to help again. And Schumer remains dug in on not using reconciliation to deal with the problem.

Another thing: We could be headed for another shutdown showdown on Dec. 3, when the government once again runs out of money.

NO PRESSURE … AP's Alan Fram looks at all of these dynamics in a story up today about the pile-up of late-fall and early-winter deadlines — and what's looking like a pre-holiday doozy. "Miscalculate and there could be a calamitous federal default, a collapse of Biden's domestic agenda and, for good measure, a damaging government shutdown," Fram writes . "Stir in lawmakers whose nerves are already frayed and are looking to tee up issues for next year's midterm elections, and it's a recipe for confrontations that could damage each party if leaders aren't careful."

IN OTHER WORDS: Enjoy your recess while you can!

A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

27 million seniors and people with disabilities are counting on Congress to stand up for Medicare Advantage. With a 98% beneficiary satisfaction rate, the lowest monthly premiums in 15 years, $1,640 in average annual consumer savings, and better health outcomes for seniors, it's no wonder that so many Medicare beneficiaries entrust their health to Medicare Advantage. Read more about the Medicare Advantage difference.

THE NEXT FIGHT: SHORT, OR LONG-TERM POLICIES? In a "Dear Colleague" letter last night, Speaker NANCY PELOSI fired off a warning to the White House and progressives on reconciliation. She suggested her caucus wants to coalesce around a smaller list of policy changes that would last longer, writing: "Overwhelmingly, the guidance I am receiving from Members is to do fewer things well so that we can still have a transformative impact on families."

That might seem mundane, but it's not. Progressives have been pushing for leaders to adopt their whole wishlist of proposals from universal Pre-K and free college to dental and vision for Medicare — and cut the price tag by having them expire in a few years' time. The idea, they argue, is to set up a bunch of mini cliffs and dare Republicans to let popular programs expire.

In a recent meeting with progressives, President JOE BIDEN signaled an openness to this idea. Separately, we have heard from senior Democrats that the White House is leaning toward this possibility. But a large swath of the House, including some in Pelosi's leadership orbit, would rather shore up the ACA permanently, for example, or extend the enhanced child tax credit for a longer period of time rather than "make Biden's [entire] legacy contingent on Republicans," as one senior Democratic aide put it.

— Related: BuzzFeed News' Paul McLeod has more on what a slash and trim approach across the entire spending package would do to certain programs. By adopting this strategy, "Democrats will have to choose between greatly watering down all of their policies or giving up on some big promises," McLeod writes.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

Seniors are counting on Congress to stand up for the health coverage they need and deserve. Learn more about how Medicare Advantage creates value for taxpayers and provides high-quality, affordable health coverage to a more diverse, more at-risk beneficiary population in our 2021 State of Medicare Advantage report.

BIDEN'S TUESDAY:

— 8:45 a.m.: The president will meet virtually with G-20 leaders on Afghanistan.

— 10:15 a.m.: Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President's Daily Brief.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2 p.m.

The HOUSE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up the temporary extension of the debt ceiling (after the Rules Committee takes it up at 1 p.m.), with first votes no earlier than 5 p.m.

The SENATE is out.

BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD: On Wednesday, Biden will meet with senior officials and stakeholders to discuss supply chain bottlenecks and deliver remarks.

THE MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE 2021 IS HERE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from one of the largest and most influential gatherings of experts reinventing finance, health, technology, philanthropy, industry and media. Don't miss a thing from the 24th annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, from Oct. 17 to 20. Can't make it? We've got you covered. Planning to attend? Enhance your #MIGlobal experience and subscribe today.

PLAYBOOK READS

Fire crews work the scene of a small plane crash, Monday, Oct. 11, 2021, in Santee, Calif. At least two people were killed and two others were injured when the plane crashed into a suburban Southern California neighborhood.

PHOTO OF THE DAY: Fire crews work the scene of a small plane crash in Santee, Calif., on Monday, Oct. 11. At least two people were killed and two others were injured when the plane crashed into a suburban neighborhood. | Gregory Bull/AP Photo

THE WHITE HOUSE

THE LEFT CAN'T LOOK AWAY FROM HUNTER'S ART — Our resident Hunter Biden expert Ben Schreckinger takes a look at how liberals increasingly are being forced to reckon with the amateur painter's ethically questionable, up-to-$500k-a-pop art-selling business. "So far, right-leaning outlets that devoted less attention to the ethical issues raised by the activities of Trump's relatives have had a field day with the Hunter Biden story. Interest in his activities, meanwhile, has been relatively muted on the left," Schreckinger writes.

"That may be changing. Along with new evidence that at least some of the alleged laptop material is genuine — as well as other emerging evidence about the deals family members have sought or received from people with an interest in influencing Biden — the bipartisan outcry over the painting venture suggests that the Hunter Biden issue is not going away, and that liberals may increasingly tune in."

WAIVING PRIVILEGE — AP's Colleen Long and Zeke Miller have a deep dive into Biden's decision not to block some information sought by the Jan. 6 select committee. That choice, which was not made lightly, "challenges a tested norm — one in which presidents enjoy the secrecy of records of their own terms in office, both mundane and highly sensitive, for a period of at least five years, and often far longer," they write. "That means Biden and future presidents, as well as Trump."

CONGRESS

ABOUT THAT DEMOCRATIC INFIGHTING: Our Sarah Ferris and Marianne LeVine have an interesting story about how Democrats' internal disagreement over the size of the reconciliation package is rooted in a difference of opinion over how to save their majorities next year.

— There's the go-big-or-go-home-crowd. That's the left, which worries that failing to deliver on their campaign promises will depress Democratic turnout in 2022. Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), who wanted a $6 trillion bill, says this in the story: "Democrats have talked for a very long time about child care, health care and fighting back against the climate crisis… We made promises. We need to keep our promises."

— Then, there are the moderates/centrists, some of whom never campaigned on some of the stuff the party is trying to pack into the reconciliation plan. Others worry the price tag is so large that it will invite charges of "socialism" and possibly hurt the economy. They want a narrower set of well-defined policies.

Said Rep. SUZAN DELBENE (D-Wash.), who leads the centrist New Democrat Coalition and is in the latter camp: "If we do a lot of things ... it may not be clear to people what the investment has been in."

A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

SPY GAMES

SHADES OF 'THE AMERICANS' — But less competent: JONATHAN and DIANA TOEBBE , a seemingly ordinary suburban couple, have been "accused by the U.S. government of trying to sell some of America's most closely guarded submarine propulsion secrets to a foreign government," over the weekend. Let's just say it did not go well. A wild read by NYT's Julian E. Barnes, Brenda Wintrode and JoAnna Daemmrich.

ALL POLITICS

PA-GOV NEWS — JOSH SHAPIRO, Pennsylvania's attorney general, is set to announce his campaign for governor of the state Wednesday, "entering the 2022 race months after making his intentions known and effectively clearing the field of potential rivals for the Democratic nomination," AP's Marc Levy, Mark Scolforo and Michael Rubinkam report.

Most notably, Shapiro helped "lead the PR and legal charge … against baseless claims by Trump and his allies that Democrats had cheated in the presidential election."

POLICY CORNER

DEATH AND (UNPAID) TAXES — The administration is looking to crack down on $7 trillion in unpaid taxes. To start, it's looking to the IRS to direct bankers to give "new details on their customers and provide data for accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals worth more than $600," NYT's Kate Kelly and Alan Rappeport report.

From the report : "Banks and their trade groups are running advertising and letter-writing campaigns to raise awareness — and concern — about the proposal. As a result, banks from Denver to Philadelphia say they are being deluged with calls, emails and in-person complaints from both savers and small-business owners worried about the proposal. JPMorgan Chase & Company has issued talking points to bank tellers on what to tell angry customers who call or come into a branch to complain."

TRUMP CARDS

THE CASE OF THE MISSING $5800 WHISKEY AND 22-KARAT COIN — The State Department's inspector general is looking into what happened to thousands of dollars worth of gift bags meant for world leaders who were to attend the 2020 Group of 7 summit, which was canceled due to the pandemic. NYT's Michael S. Schmidt reports that the inspector general is looking into "the whereabouts of a $5,800 bottle of Japanese whiskey given to Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO — Mr. Pompeo said he never received it — and a 22-karat gold coin given to another State Department official." It also is assessing whether former second lady KAREN PENCE "wrongly took two gold-toned place card holders from the prime minister of Singapore without paying for them."

INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

PLAYBOOKERS

Aaron Blake of WaPo laid waste to the Claremont Institute's defense of John Eastman.

Elon Musk mocked Jeff Bezos after surpassing the Amazon founder as the world's richest man.

Meanwhile, Bezos and his girlfriend Lauren Sanchez saw a Broadway show about capitalism, "The Lehman Trilogy."

Ashleigh Pearson, pastry chef extraordinaire, is opening a boutique chocolate and confectionary shop in Georgetown.

George Clooney, who recently turned 60 (!), says he has no interest in running for office.

SPOTTED: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) trying to shop at the Whole Foods in downtown Silver Spring while constituents stopped him to thank him for leading the Trump impeachment. … DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas having dinner at Cafe Milano on Monday night with UTA co-president Jay Sures, a longtime friend. Paul Ryan was also at another table.

MEDIAWATCH — The Washington Examiner is debuting a new site called "Restoring America," which it describes as "promoting patriotic American virtues and values to bring people together for a better future." The site is launching with contributions from Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) and Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Mike Pompeo, Ben Carson, Matt Spalding and Robert Woodson.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Vasishth Srivastava has been named a director at Evergreen Strategy Group. He most recently was COS for Hartford, Conn., Mayor Luke Bronin and is a Hillary Clinton 2016 alum.

TRANSITIONS — Jason Stverak is joining the Credit Union National Association as deputy chief advocacy officer for federal government affairs. He previously was deputy chief of staff for Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). … David Schutt is now executive director of the Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition. He previously was a senior legislative assistant for Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Calif.). … Rosario Duran is now executive/scheduling assistant to Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.). She previously was legislative correspondent to Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.). …

… Laura Brantley is joining Shared Value Media as a comms manager. She previously was a policy and outreach associate for the Congressional LGBTQ+ Equality Caucus. … John Glenn will be senior director at the International Forum for Democratic Studies at the National Endowment for Democracy. He previously was policy director at the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. … Ben Khouri is now associate director of strategic comms at Vanderbilt University's Project on Unity and American Democracy. He previously was a comms program manager at Amazon.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Tyler Houlton, principal at Wolf Global Advisors, and Alli Papa, president of Skyview Capital, got married on Saturday in Avon, Conn. with officiant Jon Reedy. Pic … SPOTTED: Matt Wall and Katie Martin, Andrea Grant, Daniel Scarpinato, Alex and Tracey Schriver, Chadwick and Sloane Carlough, Daniel Kroese, Matt Hoekstra, Ben Falkowski, Brendon DelToro, Brianna Duff, Elise Dickens, Taylor Lioce, Michael and Leigh Calvo, Michael Bars, Scott Erickson, Seth Waugh and Andrew Mills.

— Adriana Guzman, digital press secretary for the House Oversight Committee Democrats, and Derek Bonett, a former economic policy advisor for Ted Cruz (R-Texas), got married on Saturday in a backyard ceremony in Fresno, Calif. Pic

— Kate Huffman, senior legislative assistant for Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), and Chris Gorud, COS for Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.), got married on Saturday at Hotel Monaco. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Fox News' Chris Wallace and Lauren Blanchard … Lara Trump … NYT's Michael Barbaro … Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies … Jorge Guajardo of McLarty Associates … Kate Nocera … BuzzFeed's Rosie Gray … former Reps. Ed Royce (R-Calif.) (7-0) and Joe Garcia (D-Fla.) … NPR's Jack Speer … Jamie Hennigan of the National Association of Manufacturers … Debbie Berkowitz of the National Employment Law Project … Collin Berglund … WSJ's Gary Rosen … Alastair Fitzpayne … Jessica (Skaggs) Henrichs of House Ways and Means … N.Y. Post's Juliegrace Brufke … Chris Nagel … Emily Beyer … former U.S. Treasurer Anna Escobedo Cabral, now of the Inter-American Development Bank … Eric Wilson of Bullpen Strategy Group and Startup Caucus … VA's Tanya Bradsher … Stephanie Sutton of the State Department … Bloomberg's Anna Edney … Chelsea Welch … Elizabeth Ray … Matthew J. Shuman … Joshua Hone of Column … Amber Lyons … Simon Limage … David Oleksak … Megan Cheney … Kevin Bruce of Fieldwood Energy … former Sen. Jake Garn (R-Utah) … Matt Bernstein … Lawren Mills … Jack Detsch … Thomas Bowman … Kenneth Ahn … former Michigan Gov. John Engler

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A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

With a 98% beneficiary satisfaction rate, the lowest monthly premiums in 15 years, $1,640 in average annual consumer savings, and better health outcomes for seniors, Medicare Advantage continues to prove its value to Medicare beneficiaries and the health care system.

Now, seniors are counting on Congress to stand up for the health coverage they need and deserve.

Learn more about how Medicare Advantage creates value for taxpayers and provides high-quality, affordable health coverage to a more diverse, more at-risk beneficiary population in our 2021 State of Medicare Advantage report. Read more.