Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Biden’s new problem on the left

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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

A SIGN OF THE TIMES — ELON MUSK, the wealthiest man in the world, is now worth more than Exxon Mobil, per Bloomberg.

GRUMBLING ON THE LEFT — President JOE BIDEN might be finally homing in on a deal with Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), the elusive moderate. But a sense of discontent is starting to bubble up among progressives on the Hill, and it threatens to impede what the White House hoped would be a big week for the Biden agenda.

As the reconciliation bill's provisions on Medicare, climate and family leave get watered down — if not axed entirely — progressives who initially sounded a positive note after meetings at the White House are now expressing concerns. And those worries are steering the left into a moment of reckoning over how hard to fight for their priorities. (More on that in a second …)

Sources on the left tell us it was "a big tactical mistake," for example, for Biden to invite Manchin and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER to a summit in Delaware on Sunday without also hosting a major progressive negotiator, like Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) or Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.). ("Not having them in the room is a real misstep," one top progressive told Playbook.)

Sanders, notably, has gone rather quiet this week — declining, for instance, the chance to weigh in Monday over reports that his signature proposal to expand Medicare to include dental, vision and hearing coverage was getting hacked down.

But other progressives are starting to send up red flares.

— On the inside: "Progressives are troubled and deeply concerned with the cuts we're seeing reported," Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) told Playbook. "They are saying their votes need to be earned. And support for a deal that does not adequately fund their priorities is not guaranteed."

— On the outside: Progressive-aligned groups and outlets are watching this all play out with a sense of disappointment. Leaders at the Sunrise Movement told us Monday night they're ready to press their Hill allies to take a stand if the bill doesn't adequately address climate change. ("We cannot let up on the leverage that we have," said group advocacy director LAUREN MAUNUS.)

A DIVIDE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WING? — We're starting to hear a bit of division among progressives over just how hard the left should fight. On Monday night, Jacobin Magazine — the socialist outlet popular among Justice Dems types — posted a rather scathing review of the Congressional Progressive Caucus' negotiating tactics, and urged the group to play hardball.

"House progressives like Pramila Jayapal shouldn't vote for an empty husk of a bill," Jacobin's Andrew Perez wrote. "It's up to progressive lawmakers to ensure the final Biden agenda bill doesn't end up a hollowed-out shell that won't meaningfully help anyone. … The only way to change those expectations — and to actually wield power — is for CPC members to pledge to vote no on a hollowed-out shell, and finally make their demands clear. If they don't, they'll likely get rolled, and no barrage of tweets or press releases or email blasts will hide that avoidable outcome."

Ouch.

While the CPC has not drawn a red line in public, we're told by multiple sources that the group has indicated to leaders at the White House that they need to see all five of their "buckets" of priorities adequately addressed in order to back the bill. If one of those priorities gets cut, votes on the left could be in jeopardy.

But a progressive close with the CPC strategy noted that those on the Hill are under no illusion that they can force Manchinema into agreeing to something they've already vetoed. In that regard, some worry that fighting too hard will mean no bill, and they'd rather have a weaker bill than none at all.

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TWO DYNAMICS TO WATCH:

1. Will the Squad go along? One of the most interesting and underreported dynamics of all of this has been how quiet several (albeit not all) members of the so-called Squad have been. Everyone — left and right — expected the group of hard-liners to flex during negotiations. But with Jayapal leading talks for House progressives, the Squad has generally deferred to the CPC. Partly, that is because Omar, one of the group's original members, serves as CPC whip, acting as the connective tissue between the two groups.

But will the Squad stay simpatico with the CPC if this deal is as disappointing to progressives as some fear is likely — especially if their allies on the outside call foul? We'll see. CPC executive board members and Squad members are expected to meet today to strategize for the week.

2. No BBB, no BIF. There's been some talk by leadership of having an infrastructure vote this week if a BBB framework comes together in time. But don't expect progressives to just roll over and accept that: They're already indicating that a mere agreement is insufficient. "You don't really know everything that's in there until the text is drafted," Jayapal said. Others still want to see the entire reconciliation bill voted on by the Senate before the House passes BIF.

THE TAKEAWAY: Even if a deal lands with Manchin, there is likely still work to be done on the left.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

 

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BIDEN'S TUESDAY:

— 8:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 9 a.m.: Biden will take part virtually in the U.S.-ASEAN Summit.

— 12:15 p.m.: Biden will have lunch with VP KAMALA HARRIS.

— 7:50 p.m.: Biden will campaign with Virginia gubernatorial candidate TERRY MCAULIFFE at Virginia Highlands Park in Arlington.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief with national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN at 10 a.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. and at noon will take up the Family Violence Prevention and Services Improvement Act of 2021.

THE SENATE is in.

 

INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

A large group of migrants is pictured, one carrying a cross. | AP Photo

PHOTO OF THE DAY: Migrants, mostly from Central America, walk north along a coastal highway just outside of Huixtla, Chiapas state, Mexico on Monday, Oct. 25. | Marco Ugarte/AP Photo

(IR)RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES

WARREN TAKES A BOW — Democrats' consideration of a billionaire tax to fund the latest social spending bill has allies of Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) relishing the moment. As WaPo's Annie Linskey writes , Warren proposed something similar on the 2020 campaign trail — an idea so loved by the left that "in rally after rally, from Seattle to Denver to Detroit," all she had to do was "raise two fingers over her head and thousands of supporters would chant: 'Two cents! Two cents! Two cents!' — shorthand for Warren's idea that America's richest families should pay an annual 'wealth tax' of two cents on the dollar." Now, a like-minded proposal may just save Biden's agenda.

— BUT, BUT, BUT: We're hearing concerns from House lawmakers right now, including over the sheer logistics of putting together a policy this significant in the span of just a few days. WSJ's Rich Rubin has a list of "what to know" about the new revenue conversation.

MORNIN' MANCHIN — Ahead of the world climate summit, the world's most stubborn U.S. senator is again curbing climate provisions in the reconciliation bill by opposing a proposal to "tax oil and gas producers for methane emissions above a certain threshold," per Reuters' Jarrett Renshaw.

— AP, meanwhile, has more on the White House's Plan C — or is it Plan D? — on climate: "The emerging proposals would expand grants and loans in the agriculture and industrial sectors to help them shift to clean energy providers with fewer emissions, the official said. There would also be new, refundable home improvement tax credits for tapping solar, wind and other renewable energy sources."

Reconciliation roundup: "Biden and Democrats Push for Budget Deal This Week as Rifts Remain," by NYT's Emily Cochrane … "Fellow Dems lobby Manchin as he gets closer to 'yes,'" by Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine

 

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VA. GOV RACE

WHITE HOUSE GOES ALL-IN — Unlike past White Houses, Biden isn't trying to play down how much Virginia's gubernatorial race matters for his political standing and agenda. The president is leaning in for better or worse on the eve of his campaign trip to Arlington, Christopher Cadelago and Zach Montellaro report. "A win for [GLENN] YOUNGKIN, Biden's aides and allies say, may not scuttle his domestic agenda. But it would be the first domino to fall, foreshadowing potential problems with the party's planned midterm quest to paint Republicans as too extreme to govern."

IMMORTAL BELOVED — A new ad for Youngkin features a testimonial from a woman who sought to ban TONI MORRISON's Pulitzer-winning novel "Beloved" in schools after her son "had night terrors after reading the book," HuffPost's Kevin Robillard reports. "In the ad, [LAURA] MURPHY recounts how McAuliffe vetoed legislation she pushed for that would have required schools to tell parents if books assigned to their children contained sexually explicit material." (Her son later became an intern in the Trump administration and is now an attorney for the NRCC.)

2021 WATCH — Election Day 2021 is an "off year" across the U.S., Zach Montellaro writes, but there are more races than just Virginia to watch across the country that will offer a preview of the 2022 midterms. Among them: New York City's mayor, New Jersey's governor, Boston's mayor and a primary that will surely decide the future of a Democratic stronghold House seat in Florida.

THE WHITE HOUSE

DIVINE (NINE) INTERVENTION — As frustration among Black activists surges over the lack of movement on voting rights legislation and police reform, the Biden administration is intensifying its outreach to the Divine Nine, the historically Black fraternities and sororities that together constitute arguably the most powerful organization in the Black community, Eugene writes.

The Biden White House sees the group as a particularly effective conduit of information for Black Americans, and now hosts a monthly meeting between the Divine Nine and the administration. "Their reach is long and their reach is deep. And so for us, you don't get that many organizations who affect such a broad swath of people," CEDRIC RICHMOND told Eugene.

KERRY VS. SULLIVAN ON CHINA AND CLIMATE — Tensions are rising between White House aides over how to handle policies with China ahead of the U.N. climate conference, WaPo's John Hudson and Ellen Nakashima report. Climate envoy JOHN KERRY "has repeatedly pushed for direct diplomacy between Biden and XI [ JINPING], believing that an improved bilateral relationship can produce better outcomes in Scotland," the pair write. "White House aides, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, are more skeptical that the U.S. alone can coax China into reducing emissions. Just as Washington would be averse to overhauling its energy policies on the basis of foreign pressure, so too would Beijing."

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Kyrsten Sinema and Tim Scott were chatting while walking through Reagan National when a progressive protester started following the Arizona Democrat and demanding action on climate change. "Sorry about this," Sinema told Scott. "I think it's par for the course," Scott replied.

BOOK CLUB — WSJ's Gregory Zuckerman has a new book out today, "A Shot to Save the World: The Inside Story of the Life-or-Death Race for a COVID-19 Vaccine" ($30 ), which tells the full story of how the vaccines were developed. Among the new details: Moderna almost failed to secure the necessary money to produce vaccines in the spring of 2020; BioNTech was at first warned off working on a vaccine by a top Pfizer scientist; and Merck executives passed on trying to create a vaccine.

REBEL WITH A CAUSE — Freshman Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), one of the nine Republicans who voted to hold Steve Bannon in contempt for ignoring a Jan. 6 subpoena, hinted at what it's like to buck her party Monday night at the All in Together "Women Leading Change" gala. She, Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Dee Dee Bridgewater were honored, and Bridgewater serenaded the crowd. "As a strong woman with a strong voice, I still get called into the principal's office a lot," Mace said. She later explained to Playbook that her latest act of rebellion — the Bannon vote — was about following the law: "To me, I've always been a constitutional conservative." She added that "Bannon can come before the committee to invoke executive privilege, but he has to be before the committee."

Related: Our Olivia Beavers has a story up today about "the curious case of Nancy Mace," a Republican who was very outspoken against her party when she came to Congress in early 2020 — but who suddenly silenced that criticism, only to revert back to it once again.

Also SPOTTED at the confab: Mika Brzezinski, Amna Nawaz, Lauren Leader, Charity Wallace, Anita McBride, Molly Jong-Fast, Blair Watters, Marie Sylla, Nichole Reynolds, Gloria Dittus, Stephanie Peters, Jana Barresi, Sunny Sumter, Adrienne Elrod, Arielle Elliott, Laura Coates, Maria Cardona, Muthoni Wambu Kraal, Kimball Stroud, Liz Sizer and Mark Updegrove.

OUT AND ABOUT — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) spoke at a dinner upstairs in a private room at Cafe Milano on Monday night. SPOTTED: Gayle Manchin, Suzanne Clark, Thomas Bell, Ross Perot Jr., Jonathan Evans, Margaret Brennan, Evan Burfield, Bob Cusack, Steve Case, Jeff Mason, Jim McKelvey, Josh Lederman, Jerry Seib, Angela Greiling Keane, Ryan Lizza and Olivia Nuzzi, James Politi, Kyle Dropp, DeDe Lea, Anthony Capuano, Michelle Russo, Neil Bradley, Lauren Culbertson, Fran Townsend, Sylvia Burwell, Kim Keck, Steve Clemons, Scott Strazik, John Hughes, Sam Runyon, Michael Caruso and Michael Shepard.

Newsmax's Chris Ruddy hosted a party at the Capitol Hill Club on Monday night for Sean Spicer's new book, "Radical Nation: The Dangerous Scheme to Change America" ($27.99), which is out today. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) brought balloons, in response to Spicer doing the same for him on his birthday. Also SPOTTED: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas), August Pfluger (R-Texas), Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr, Ryan Zinke, Matt and Mercedes Schlapp, Laura Schlapp, Alex Acosta, Hogan Gidley, Chad Wolf, Grover Norquist, Lindsey Curnutte, Vanessa Ambrosini and Andrew LaBruna.

The Judge David L. Bazelon Center for Mental Health Law held its virtual annual awards event Monday night, honoring Bryan Stevenson, Cherene Caraco, Jason Mitchell, Judy Woodruff, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), Thomas Francis Hehir and Vesper Judith Moore. Also SPOTTED: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, John Legend, Harvey Rosenthal, Holly O'Donnell, Jane Pauley, Tom Harkin, Andrea Mitchell, Tony Coelho and Lewis Bossing. Latham & Watkins was also honored.

MEDIA MOVE — Kellie Meyer is now a Washington correspondent for NewsNation. She most recently was Washington correspondent at Nexstar, and previously spent 14 months reporting on the aftermath from Hurricanes Irma and Maria in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

STAFFING UP — Janis Bowdler is joining the Treasury Department as its first ever counselor for racial equity. She most recently was president of the JPMorgan Chase & Co. Foundation.

TRUMP ALUMNI — Jana Toner is joining American Corporate Partners as SVP. She previously was deputy assistant to the president and chief of staff to second lady Karen Pence.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Annie Hoefler, deputy legislative director for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Ian Gayman, principal consultant at ERM- Environmental Resources Management, got married Friday in York, Pa. They were originally introduced by respective college friends. Pic Another pic SPOTTED: Lisa Murkowski, Frank Murkowski, Pat McCormick, Kellie Donnelly, Tristan Abbey, Karina and Matt Borger, Colin Hayes, John Lee and Brian Hughes.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Lamar Alexander alums Will Patterson, senior congressional affairs adviser at the British Embassy, and Katherine Knight Patterson, director of strategic comms at Best Friends Animal Society, welcomed David "Blair" Patterson on Thursday afternoon at Sibley Memorial Hospital. He arrived three weeks early at 6 lbs, 8 oz and 19 inches, and is named after his late grandfather. Pic

Kevin Hartley, assistant director of government relations at American Veterinary Medical Association and a Pete Olson alum, and Shelby Hartley, advocacy comms manager at National Rural Electric Cooperative Association and a Neal Dunn alum, welcomed Hudson Clark Hartley early Sunday morning. Pic

BIRTHWEEK (was Monday): CRC Advisors' Mike Martin

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Hillary Clinton … Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) … Katy TurJef Pollock of Global Strategy Group … Caroline CunninghamJeff Rubin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy … Tom JohnsonJessica Church … Finsbury Glover Hering's Aleta GreerPerry ApelbaumAmanda SmithKim Waskowsky of Rep. Steve Chabot's (R-Ohio) office … Aiden O'ConnellIsabelle Bock of Rep. Salud Carbajal's (D-Calif.) office … Hazen MarshallSeth Morrow of Targeted Victory … USA Today's Caren Bohan … NYT's Mark LandlerKristin Lynch of Sen. John Hickenlooper's (D-Colo.) office … NBC's Bianca BroshRichard YamadaNick GwynPaula FarisMorgan Corr … BCW Global's Catherine SullivanKaylie Hanson LongChristine StinemanScott Jennings of RunSwitch Public Relations … Mark RozellCraig Frucht of Ascend Digital Strategies … Phil BlandoTaffy Brodesser-Akner Nico Pitney of More Perfect Union … Betsy Hoover Courtney McNamara of the International Trade Commission … Amanda Leader

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