Thursday, December 24, 2020

☕️ Vaccine PEMDAS

What Congress can learn from De Niro
December 24, 2020 View Online | Sign Up

Daily Brew

Curiosity Stream

Good morning. Several housekeeping notes as we head into Christmas and the New Year. We're taking a break tomorrow because it would seem like a good day for a break. But after that, get ready for a run of special-edition newsletters tackling the biggest topics of 2020. Those special editions will continue through Jan. 4, when we'll be back with our regularly scheduled programming.  

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays,

Neal, Eliza, Jamie, Alex, and Toby 

MARKETS

NASDAQ

12,818.12

+ 0.08%

S&P

3,703.75

+ 0.45%

DOW

30,233.36

+ 0.73%

GOLD

1,875.80

+ 0.29%

10-YR

0.957%

+ 3.70 bps

OIL

47.95

+ 1.98%

*As of market close

  • Economy: Two important data points to update you on. The first? U.S. consumer spending fell for the first time since the spring in November. The second: Jobless claims for the last week came in at a still-extremely-high 803,000. These numbers show the economic recovery has hit a plateau.
  • Defense: President Trump is battling with Congress along multiple fronts. Yesterday, he vetoed the annual defense policy bill that authorizes $740+ billion for military projects. Considering the bill's overwhelming support on Capitol Hill, Congress could potentially override his veto. 
  • More pardons: President Trump issued 26 more pardons, including former campaign chair Paul Manafort, adviser and friend Roger Stone, and Jared Kushner's father Charles Kushner. 

ECONOMY

Second Stimulus Bill: 'The Irishman' of Legislation

Nancy Pelosi doing a press conference about the economic stimulus

Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Two hours in and we're still watching De Niro contemplate his life and regrets. At 9am today, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will call a last-minute House session in which she will likely encourage Republicans to increase the direct payments in the economic stimulus bill passed Monday night from $600 to $2,000. 

Quick refresher: Congress could learn a thing or two from Bobby D about offering things people can't refuse. In a surprise video posted Tuesday night, President Trump declared his opposition to the stimulus package, demanding the payments be increased to $2,000 per person and that lawmakers remove the fluffier parts that don't directly address the pandemic crisis. 

Trump's move effectively turned Congress upside down 

Democrats have backed Trump's position, putting Republicans in the hot seat. 

  • As Business Insider puts it, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is in "a no-win situation." 
  • He's reportedly worried that if the payments are too measly, they could cost his party the Georgia runoff election in a few weeks—and with it, control of the Senate. 

Reality check: The original package passed with a veto-proof majority, but members of the Republican party may back off if Trump whips out the veto pen. And in order for a House vote to happen today, Pelosi needs unanimous consent, which is tougher to come by on the Hill than a person who didn't go to Georgetown. 

Trump isn't the stimulus package's only critic 

Some members of Congress have questioned the bill's offbeat elements, including…

  • A provision making illegal streaming a felony 
  • A tax break for racehorse owners
  • A declaration that China must not interfere with the selection of the next Dalai Lama 

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, including GOP Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, criticized the bill for being rushed through Congress. But proponents—and there were lots: the bill passed 92–6 in the Senate—say it's a critical lifeline for suffering Americans and businesses who need emergency aid ASAP. 

Bottom line: The second stimulus package didn't just provide Covid relief, it also funded the government. If more funding isn't offered before Dec. 28, we could see a government shutdown.

        

LOGISTICS

Vaccine PEMDAS

As of yesterday, more than 1 million people in the U.S. have received their first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine (you can let out a "yippee" if you want). Hospital staff and nursing home workers—unquestionably "essential" in the fight against the virus—have been the initial recipients of the doses. But deciding which workers should receive the vaccines after healthcare staff is a lot more complicated.

Who else is "essential?" 

The definition gets murkier as workers in the delivery, manufacturing, agriculture, education, and services industries all jostle for the next wave of doses. And states that drafted their own distribution plans months ago are having trouble accommodating the CDC's recent recommendations, which cover nearly 70% of the U.S. labor force.

  • For instance, Florida is telling the CDC to talk to the hand, deciding to vaccinate seniors 65 or older before any other workers. 

Looking ahead...while the order of vaccine operations remains ambiguous, one thing is clear: The U.S. wants a lot of doses. It just ordered an additional 100 million from Pfizer, pushing its total order of all vaccines to over 1 billion. 

        

TAXES

Live Free or Sue Massachusetts

On Tuesday, New Jersey became the latest state to call on the Supreme Court to take up a case over income taxes—basically, deciding which state gets your $$$. 

The backstory: Certain places, like NYC and Omaha, NE, have typically welcomed a large proportion of workers who commute from out of state. Seven states levied income taxes using the "convenience rule," which means that a New Jersey resident who works in Manhattan pays New York income taxes, but gets a credit on their NJ bill to avoid double taxation. 

  • Now, because of the pandemic, that NJ resident is probably working from home...leaving New Jersey to wonder why New York is getting all the tax revenue. 

Cue this actual bridge in New Jersey's state capital, Trenton.

 

Jag9889Lower Trenton Bridge 20091103-jag9889CC BY-SA 4.0

In October, New Hampshire filed a lawsuit against Massachusetts to try and stop it from taxing NH residents who work remotely for companies based in Massachusetts. Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, and now New Jersey have also sided with Team NH. 

Bottom line: A lot of cash is at stake at a time when state coffers need it. New Jersey credits as much as $1.2 billion in revenue to residents who pay New York income taxes. 

        

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INTERNATIONAL

Is It Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas?

Christmas globe

Francis Scialabba

We wrote a version of this story for Passover. Then Easter. Then Ramadan. Then July 4th. Then Labor Day. Then Thanksgiving. And we're going to do it again for Christmas.

You know what sentence is coming next: The holiday is going to look a little different this year. The AP rounded up all the different Covid restrictions people around the globe are facing this holiday season, so here's a roundup of that roundup: 

The UK: People living in London and other areas in southeast England will be under the strictest "Tier 4" restrictions in order to slow the spread of a new virus variant. Tier 4 prohibits households from mixing.

Itay: From today through Dec. 27, all shops will have to close except food stores, pharmacies, and hairdressers. Newspapers are publishing colorful graphics to help people remember the rules.

Lebanon: The economically struggling Middle Eastern nation is actually encouraging people to travel back to the country and spend money—it even opened nightclubs last week (but without dancing). 

The U.S.: There are no specific Christmas-related Covid restrictions, however travel is expected to drop 29% this year, per AAA. 

        

SOCIAL MEDIA

Clubhouse Influencers Right Now

Show me the money clip

Giphy

The buzzy audio social media app Clubhouse, which lets users join virtual rooms to eavesdrop on other people's conversations, just got even buzzier. According to the NYT, it's been testing an invite-only private club called Everything in Moderation.

  • You're probably not invited: Only around 40 of the app's most popular creators are on the list, as Clubhouse tries to keep its power users happy and navigate the age-old problem of monetization. 

Clubhouse, No. 14 on the App Store's free app list, is hoping to avoid becoming the next Vine (RIP), which shut down in 2016 after 20 of its top 50 creators left the app a year earlier. The reason? Vine balked at the $1.2 million individual price tag the creators requested to retain them. 

  • History is repeating itself. During the first meeting between users and company leadership, one Clubhouse creator asked "Where's the money at?" per the NYT.
  • The Everything in Moderation influencer program is the beginning of Clubhouse's answer.

Zoom out: Clubhouse better figure it out quickly because the vultures are circling; Twitter has been testing out a similar voice chat room feature called Spaces.  

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Andrew Yang, tech entrepreneur and former Democratic presidential nominee, filed paperwork to explore a run for mayor of NYC.
  • SEC Chair Jay Clayton officially stepped down from his position yesterday.
  • Nikola, the electric truck startup that's taken many licks this year, took another one yesterday, saying it canceled its garbage truck contract with Republic Services.
  • California granted Nuro, a robotics company, approval to start commercial delivery service from its self-driving cars.
  • Get smart on the new Covid-19 variant in the UK.

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GAMES

Beats By Brew

Here's a fun game we invented last night.

The backstory: Each song has a particular tempo, which can be measured in beats per minute, or BPM. Essentially, it's how fast a song is. "Sandstorm" has a higher BPM than "Let's Get It On." 

So the quiz is this: We'll give you two songs, and you have to determine the song with the higher BPM (aka higher tempo). 

  1. "Uptown Funk" by Bruno Mars or "Uptown Girl" by Billy Joel 
  2. "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" or "Bad Blood," both by Taylor Swift  
  3. Disney category: "Under the Sea" or "Hakuna Matata"
  4. Ed Sheeran's "Shape of You" or Adele's "Set Fire to the Rain" 
  5. "Levels" by Avicii or "Bad Guy" by Billie Eilish (the first part)

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ANSWER

1. "Uptown Girl" is faster than "Uptown Funk" 
2. If this one was very difficult...it's because it was a trick question. Both songs are roughly equal in tempo.
3. "Hakuna Matata" is faster than "Under the Sea" 
4. "Set Fire to the Rain" is faster than "Shape of You"
5. "Bad Guy" is a slightly faster than "Levels"

              

Written by Eliza Carter, Toby Howell, and Neal Freyman

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