Gov. Kathy Hochul took a gamble this year when she became a key Democrat in the effort to flip five New York House seats. If it pays off, Hochul will have friends in a new Democratic House majority. Success would silence critics like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has blamed Hochul for House Democratic losses two years ago. But if there are down-ballot disappointments for the party, Hochul will probably again be saddled with blame. Republicans have been eager to link House Democratic candidates to the governor, whose favorable ratings are in the basement. GOP campaigns are also bewildered by some Democrats’ decision to appear alongside Hochul — a move they say offers an unintended gift for vulnerable Republicans. “I’m at a loss,” said Dave Catalfamo, a Republican strategist who is advising Rep. Marc Molinaro’s bid for a second term. “Her numbers are at a historic low for an incumbent New York governor.” Hochul’s campaign defended the approach. “The strategy is simple , Gov. Hochul has been focused on turning out a historic number of voters across the state and paving the way for Hakeem Jeffries to become speaker of the House,” spokesperson Jen Goodman told Playbook in a statement. There’s a bull market case to be made for Hochul’s efforts. The downsides may be minimal: Many battleground races will likely hinge on whether Vice President Kamala Harris can turn out Democrats. The political rewards, meanwhile, loom large for a governor who could use a clear political win. “She’s largely playing with house money — pun intended,” said Democratic operative Austin Shafran. “If the Democrats win, take over the House or just have a really good showing in New York, then she will have engendered a lot of goodwill among Democrats.” Calling in those chits could help Hochul in her own campaign for a second term in 2026 — a reelection bid the governor has publicly committed to when asked whether she’s angling for a job in a potential Harris administration. ( Hochul has denied interest in a cabinet job.) Simultaneously, she’s getting kudos for building out the infrastructure of the state Democratic Committee for the first time in generations. The work has meant a combination of fundraising and direct contact with voters, all with an eye toward her own campaign in two years. Hochul has pressed to open field offices to aid down-ballot candidates and raise money for county Democratic committees. Campaign workers have reported more than 4.5 million voter contacts this year. “It was so transparently obvious that the party only served one campaign for the last decade-plus,” said Morgan Hook, a former communications adviser to ex-Gov. David Paterson. “Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, the party appears to be doing what it’s supposed to be doing right now.” Still, challenges await New York Democrats after Election Day. Some party officials are privately nervous about their prospects in two years when Hochul is slated to top the ticket. They must also contend with the fallout from the felony corruption indictment of Mayor Eric Adams and the mushrooming scandals engulfing his inner circle. Hochul isn’t the only party leader who faces a high-stakes November: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is in striking distance of becoming the next speaker and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s Democrats are at risk of losing control over the chamber. “If we’re looking at just the snapshot in time, sure, there’s pressure,” said Lupé Todd-Medina, a former adviser to Hochul and Jeffries. “But there’s always pressure. You always want to ensure the best for the nation, our state, the best for our city.” — Nick Reisman HAPPY THURSDAY. AND HAPPY HALLOWEEN. There’s five days until Election Day. Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.
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