| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | THE BILLIONAIRES’ SANDBOX … “Mark Cuban Shows Democrats What They’ve Been Missing,” by Victoria Guida: “His alliance with [KAMALA] HARRIS is striking, though, because he’s exactly the kind of spokesperson that Democrats have leaned away from in recent years.” … PART II — Trump transition co-chair HOWARD LUTNICK appears to subscribe to false anti-vaccine conspiracy theories, as he opined on CNN last night. Even so, the Cantor Fitzgerald CEO said ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. would not be in charge of HHS under a second DONALD TRUMP presidency — which might be news to RFK Jr. … PART III — “Workers Say They Were Tricked and Threatened as Part of Elon Musk’s Get-Out-the-Vote Effort,” by Jake Lahut in Wired: “A number of them have been driven around in the back of a seatless U-Haul van … and threatened that their lodging at a local motel wouldn’t be paid for if they didn’t meet canvassing quotas. One door knocker alleges that they didn’t even know they were signing up for anything having to do with Musk or Trump.”
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Voters cast their ballots at the Frank P. Zeidler Municipal Building during the first day of Wisconsin's in-person absentee voting, Oct. 22, 2024, in Milwaukee. | Morry Gash/AP | ON WISCONSIN — As we get closer to Election Day, the campaign travel increases while the list of states decreases. Between now and Tuesday, fewer than 10 states are going to get to lay their eyes on VP Harris or former President Trump. The three “blue wall” states are likely to be at the top of the travel list. And two of those states have dominated the narrative for months. Pennsylvania is, well, the whole damn ballgame, and it has been treated as such. Every corner of the state has been lavished with visits by the candidates, and the two campaigns plus their allies have spent more than $538 million in TV ads aimed at Keystone State voters. Michigan is home to a few different enticing storylines that have earned national attention, chief among them how disapproval of the Biden administration’s role in Israel’s war in Gaza will affect the votes of Arab Americans, Muslims and young people; how formerly Republican affluent suburbs like Oakland and Kent counties are shifting blue; etc. Wisconsin is … well, for a long time, it’s been the red-headed stepchild of the “blue wall.” It’s not forgotten altogether, but subject to less attention than the other two.
- The visits: Trump has visited Wisconsin on six occasions since the GOP convention, compared to 11 days in Michigan and 15 days in Pennsylvania. In roughly that same timeframe, Harris has been to Wisconsin on eight days, Michigan on nine and Pennsylvania on 14.
- The money: In an analysis of ad spends since July 22, when Harris hit the top of the ticket, the Trump campaign has spent roughly $47 million in Pennsylvania, $33 million in Michigan and $26 million in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the Harris team has spent $83 million in Pennsylvania, $69 million in Michigan and $39 million in Wisconsin.
But now, suddenly, Wisconsin — which, as a reminder, was the closest of the three states in 2020, when JOE BIDEN won it by about 21,000 votes — is getting its moment in the spotlight. Last night, Trump and Harris held dueling rallies in the state.
- Harris’ event in Madison centered on young voters and featured musical performances by GRACIE ABRAMS and MUMFORD & SONS.
- Trump took to the stage in Green Bay wearing a high-vis vest (he donned it for a garbage truck-centered photo op meant to prolong the news cycle surrounding President JOE BIDEN’s “garbage” gaffe), vowed that he would “protect the women of our country” and would do so “whether the women like it or not," and brought along legendary Packers QB BRETT FAVRE.
Tomorrow, both candidates will return to Wisconsin for what are likely to be their final visits before voting ends. So where do things stand? Both Republicans and Democrats see this as coming down to the wire once again and each side is projecting confidence — perhaps disproportionately so. The overall vibe: “We don’t need any more visits, we don’t need any more ads, we’re ready to count votes,” MARK GRAUL, a GOP strategist based in the state tells our colleagues Irie Sentner, Lisa Kashinsky and Jessica Piper. The GOP spin: “Kamala Harris doesn’t know the first thing about Wisconsin — she chose a Vikings fan as her running mate,” RACHEL REISNER, the director of battleground state communications for the Trump campaign, told Playbook last night (all politics is local, especially in the NFC North). “Wisconsin voters are already running up the score for President Trump as evidenced by his lead in the polls, encouraging early vote turnout, and big endorsements from hometown favorites including [Favre] and Wisconsin’s former Gov. TOMMY THOMPSON.” Reisner said the Trump campaign has more than 40 offices, with “enough [staff] to run circles around Kamala[’s] camp,” without being specific as to the number of staffers. The Dem spin: “There's been year-round organizing in Wisconsin basically since 2017,” one Harris campaign official in the state told Playbook last night. “We saw [dividends in the] state Supreme Court race in 2023, the governor's race in 2022, you know, and just kind of building on that and making sure that it's not just a cycle, a cycle of this that is year-round.” The Harris camp says that on its own, it added more than 50 offices, 250 full-time staff on the ground and moved the HQ to Milwaukee for the first time in 20 years. Our read: There’s often a difference between what the campaigns project publicly and what they’ll confess privately in their candid moments. And that’s true in Wisconsin. “You're seeing both sides make an effort at it like you’ve never seen before,” Graul told Playbook last night. Both camps point to extremely high voting totals so far as proof they are doing well. One big difference for Wisconsin this time around is that both sides are back to pushing for early votes. (In 2020, that was not the case for Trump.) The honest assessment from both sides is perhaps best captured by a phrase one Wisconsin Dem used to describe their outlook when speaking to a colleague of ours: They are “nauseously optimistic.” Good Thursday morning, happy Halloween and congrats to Raghu Manavalan and all you Dodger fans out there. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels .
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Click here & learn more. | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Another day, another battleground-state polling dump that shows a tight race between KAMALA HARRIS and DONALD TRUMP. Here are the toplines from the slate of new UMass Lowell/YouGov polls that our colleague Lisa Kashinsky got an early look at:
- Pennsylvania: Harris +1; 48 percent to 47 percent
- Michigan: Harris +4; 49 percent to 45 percent
- North Carolina: Trump +2; 47 percent to 45 percent
- New Hampshire: Harris +7; 50 percent to 43 percent
The pollsters also surveyed key down-ballot races in each state:
- Pennsylvania Senate: Sen. BOB CASEY (D) 48 percent; DAVE McCORMICK (R) 42 percent.
- Michigan Senate: Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D) 48 percent; MIKE ROGERS (R) 39 percent.
- North Carolina governor: JOSH STEIN (D) 48 percent; Lt. Gov. MARK ROBINSON (R) 36 percent.
- New Hampshire governor: Former Sen. KELLY AYOTTE (R) 45 percent; JOYCE CRAIG (D) 43 percent
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   BlackRock supports retirement plans for roughly half of U.S. public school teachers. Meet Andy, who gives back while securing his future. Watch his story. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … The House select panel investigating the Covid pandemic is sharpening its aim at its highest profile target: former New York Gov. ANDREW CUOMO. Its Republican leader yesterday sent a criminal referral to the Justice Department, NYT’s Grace Ashford and Benjamin Oreskes write , alleging he lied to Congress in a closed-door interview as part of a “conscious, calculated effort” to shirk responsibility for thousands of deaths in his state’s nursing homes. It’s unclear whether the panel’s referral will amount to anything; DOJ is not obligated to act. But Cuomo, who is entertaining a possible NYC mayoral run, is already portraying himself as the victim of a “taxpayer-funded farce” on the part of House Republicans. At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. On the trail Harris will travel from Madison, Wisconsin, out West. She’ll speak at events in Phoenix at 4:20 p.m. Eastern; in Reno, Nevada, at 8:25 p.m. Eastern; and in Las Vegas at 12:10 a.m. Eastern. Trump will hold rallies in Albuquerque, New Mexico, at 2 p.m. Eastern and in Henderson, Nevada, at 6:30 p.m. Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will speak at an event in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, at 11 a.m.; make a local stop in Erie at 4:30 p.m.; and then travel to Detroit.
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| |  Cornel West speaks at the National Press Club, February 21, 2017, in Washington, DC. | Win McNamee/Getty Images | KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE — For further proof that this election is being fought not just in voters’ minds but in the courts, look to Pennsylvania, where yesterday no fewer than five prominent election-related lawsuits were filed or decided. A handful of undated/incorrectly dated mail ballots should still be counted, the state’s Commonwealth Court ruled. That decision “injected new uncertainty” about whether it would apply to thousands of other such ballots and “prompted predictions of chaos,” the Philly Inquirer’s Jeremy Roebuck and Katie Bernard report — because a recent state Supreme Court ruling had cut the other way. (In general, more mail ballots counted is likely good for Dems.) But Republicans got a win when a judge extended the time for Bucks County residents to vote, per Roebuck. Meanwhile, Democrats sued over mail ballot problems in Erie County, per Zach Montellaro. CORNEL WEST went to the Supreme Court to try to force Pennsylvania voting sites to advertise that his name can be written in, per USA Today’s Maureen Groppe. And a hearing over ELON MUSK’s $1 million giveaways to voters was moved up to today, per Josh Gerstein. On Truth Social and elsewhere, Trump and his allies are ramping up preemptive — and very exaggerated — claims of fraud in the state, which could lay the groundwork for challenging the election. It’s his familiar playbook from 2020. But as WaPo, NBC and ABC document, local officials say the claims mostly center on routine processes that actually show successful defenses against misconduct in action. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — Across the country, local law enforcement officials are bracing for election-related violence, disruption or intimidation, Betsy Woodruff Swan reports from Phoenix. Local officials are taking steps to protect themselves physically, especially in Philadelphia, Detroit and Atlanta, Reuters’ Nathan Layne, Joseph Tanfani and Ned Parker report . And police in the Portland, Oregon, area are searching for the suspect who set hundreds of ballots ablaze, The Oregonian/OregonLive’s Zane Sparling and Zaeem Shaikh report. WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN — “GOP leaders in some states move to block Justice Dept. election monitors,” by WaPo’s David Nakamura RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE THE POLICY ELECTION — If he takes office, Trump may refuse to give federal grants to local police departments that boycott his mass deportations, NBC’s Julia Ainsley, Garrett Haake and Laura Strickler scooped . Such a policy would likely get tied up in court at first. PUERTO RICO FALLOUT — NICKY JAM, a reggaeton singer who’d campaigned with Trump, rescinded his endorsement over the Madison Square Garden rally controversy. THE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER — “Clean Energy Is Booming in the U.S. The Election Could Change That,” by NYT’s Brad Plumer: “Trump has suggested he would dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act, which has reshaped America’s energy landscape. It won’t be easy.” … To wit: Musk’s Tesla is supporting a landmark California climate policy that Trump wants to dismantle, Debra Kahn scooped from San Francisco. CHANGE OF PLANS — Trump won’t go to the Penn State-Ohio State football game after all, per the USA Today Network’s Craig Meyer. THE DECIDERS — A bevy of new stories tell the story of this election through the swing-state locales, demographics and individuals who are up for grabs:
- Nevada: Progressive care-economy unions are giving Harris an organizing boost in the absence of support from the Teamsters, Blake Jones reports from Reno. … A surge of conservative California transplants in recent years could put Trump over the top in the state, Calder McHugh reports . … Republicans are taking steps to make inroads with the sizable Filipino community, WaPo’s Anumita Kaur reports from Las Vegas.
- North Carolina: Historically Black colleges and universities in North Carolina are working hard to mobilize the vote for Harris, AP’s Ayanna Alexander reports from Greensboro. … From Goldsboro, Elena Schneider reports that Dems are worried about poor Black turnout in the state so far.
UNWILLING PARTICIPANTS — Republican anti-transgender ads have frequently featured transgender women and girls “without their prior knowledge or consent,” reports The Hill’s Brooke Migdon. One woman says she now fears for her safety and is considering legal action. RACE FOR THE HOUSE WHAT DAVID SCHWEIKERT IS TALKING ABOUT — Perhaps unique for a House race this year, the Arizona GOP congressman has put tackling the national debt at the center of his campaign, WaPo’s Jacob Bogage reports from Scottsdale. Schweikert’s big pitch is for an out-of-the-box package on everything from AI to immigration to obesity, hammering underlying causes of budget problems. RACE FOR THE SENATE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE — Nebraska Senate contender DAN OSBORN reaffirmed he won’t caucus with Dems, Jordain Carney reports, after HARRY DUNN’s PAC stepped in it with a fundraising text saying the independent would help Dems keep the Senate. SPOILER ALERT — A Democratic-linked group is running ads in support of conservative third-party candidate MARTY SELKER in the Pennsylvania Senate race, Ally Mutnick reports. POLL POSITION National: Harris +1, per TIPP. Harris +1, per YouGov/The Economist. … North Carolina: Trump +2, per Fox. … Pennsylvania: Tied, per Fox. Tied, per Monmouth . Trump +1, per Quinnipiac. … Michigan: Harris +2, per Fox. Tied, per USA Today/Suffolk. TOM BARRETT +2, per Emerson. … Nebraska: TONY VARGAS +4 and Sen. DEB FISCHER +7, per YouGov/The Economist. … Colorado: Rep. YADIRA CARAVEO +2, per Emerson. … New Hampshire: Harris +5 and KELLY AYOTTE +3, per Saint Anselm.
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|  Virginia "Ginni" Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, walks with her lawyer, Mark Paoletta, right, to a room at the O'Neill House Office Building, in Washington, Sept. 29, 2022. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP | TRANSITION LENSES — As presidential transition machinery whirs into gear behind the scenes for both candidates, Betsy Woodruff Swan reveals that MARK PAOLETTA is working on potential Justice Department policy for Trump. The prominent lawyer, who’s very close to Justice CLARENCE THOMAS, is working with the policy half of the transition team headed by LINDA McMAHON. Paoletta has long defended Thomas and lambasted moves by DOJ under Biden. On the Democratic side, uncertainty is rampant about which directions Harris’ transition team will lean on both policy and personnel — and how similar or different she’ll be from Biden, Adam Cancryn and Jasper Goodman report. Her process is being led by “a small and intensely private” group; names in the mix for transition help include MICHAEL LINDEN, ANNE REID and ANNA CANFIELD ROTH. TRUMP CARDS HEADS UP — “Beauty queen claims Donald Trump groped her after luring her back to suite at New York’s Plaza Hotel,” by the Daily Mail’s Josh Boswell: “[I]t was only because of her height and strength that BEATRICE KEUL could fight off the former president [in 1993] … Keul, 53, is coming forward now because she discovered all the documentation for her trip from her home in Zurich, Switzerland sitting in a box when she prepared to move. … A longtime friend, Swiss writer PASCAL CLAIVAZ, also told DailyMail.com that Keul first told him her story of Trump's unwanted sexual advances 20 years ago.” Keul is one of more than two dozen women who have now accused Trump of sexual misconduct. His campaign said the allegation was outright false and planted. TO TELL THE TRUTH SOCIAL — Trump Media took a hard plunge in the markets yesterday, erasing $1.3 billion of Trump’s net worth, CNN’s Matt Egan reports.
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Rescue workers carry the body of a boy who was found under the rubble of a destroyed building that was hit Tuesday night in an Israeli airstrike, in Sarafand, south Lebanon, Oct. 30, 2024. | Bilal Hussein/AP | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Hopes are growing in the U.S. and Israel that a cease-fire might be within reach for the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, even as the Israel-Hamas war rages on, Axios’ Barak Ravid and NBC’s Raf Sanchez, Monica Alba and Gabe Gutierrez report. Top U.S. officials, including AMOS HOCHSTEIN and BRETT McGURK, will be in Israel today to meet with PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU about it, while CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS is in Egypt. (There, negotiators are focused on working toward a Gaza deal.) Meanwhile, WaPo’s Abigail Hauslohner and Michael Birnbaum scooped that the State Department has gotten 500 reports of Israel using American weapons to harm or kill civilians in Gaza. That could violate the law, but the State Department “has failed to comply with its own policies requiring swift investigations of such claims.” … Elsewhere in the region, U.S. Central Command said it had killed as many as 35 Islamic State fighters in Syria, per NYT’s Eve Sampson. More top reads:
CONGRESS UP NEXT — “Disaster aid bill seen more likely than omnibus spending package post-election,” by Roll Call’s Aidan Quigley BEYOND THE BELTWAY PLAYING THE LONG GAME — “The Conservative Strategy to Ban Abortion Nationwide,” by The New Yorker’s Rachel Monroe in Amarillo, Texas
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Stormy Daniels will join with witches at Salem’s Halloween. Joe Biden playfully munched on a baby. Jill Biden dressed up as a panda. Sarah McBride’s late husband is a big part of her political motivation. Vivek Ramaswamy went all in on garbage, too. KNOWING THE HOUSE CHIEFS — “The Group Chat That Secretly Runs Congress,” by Elle’s Kayla Webley Adler OUT AND ABOUT — The Walt Disney Company, Motion Picture Association and Alliance for Lifetime Income hosted a “Golden Bachelorette” event last night at the MPA, where Rachael moderated a conversation with Joan Vassos and French 75s. SPOTTED: Karyn Temple, Jean Statler, Susan Fox, Bill Bailey, Jessica Moore, Jaqui Serrano, Olivia Perez-Cubas, Katie and Jon Rosborough, Rachel Alben, Jack Dubee, Nicole Balgemino, Michael Ahrens, Suzy Wagner, Eric Schultz, Callie Strock, Sophie Seid, Kerry Rom, Tiffany Westover-Kernan, Joanna Rodriguez, Jeff Grappone, Stephanie Penn, Audrey Taylor, Christina Sevilla, Kathryn Stack, Jennifer Daniel and Avni Khera. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Clare Pierce-Wrobel will be health policy and analytics director at the Oregon Health Authority. She previously was director for delivery system reform at the White House Domestic Policy Council. TRANSITIONS — Catherine Francois is now chief speechwriter for Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). She previously was deputy speechwriter for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and is a Michael Cloud alum. … Arshi Siddiqui has launched Bellwether Government Relations, a boutique government affairs firm with a focus on tax policy. She previously was a partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alexandra Manzano, managing editor for Washington initiatives and newsroom development at POLITICO, and Spencer Fransway, VP of construction at Pyramid Builders, welcomed Sloane Fortunata Fransway. She came in at 8 lbs, 8.5 oz and 20.25 inches. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens … Dan Rather (93) … POLITICO’s Betsy Woodruff Swan and Michael Kruse … Jane Pauley … Jack Evans … Lee Fang … Frank Bruni … Olivia Alair Dalton of Apple … ProPublica’s Marilyn Thompson … Alana Goodman of the Washington Free Beacon … Susan Orlean … former Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño of Reed Smith … NBC’s Elias Miller … Jason Abel … Peter Pasi of Zeta Global … Clay Heil of Crowley … Ryan Morgan of Veracity Media … Luke Mullins … Marilyn Rosenthal of AIPAC … Kenny Thompson Jr. of Vail Resorts … RNC’s Mike Ambrosini … Sam Tanenhaus … Joe Kon … Lisa Hagen of CT Mirror and WNPR … Brian Kettenring … Rokk Solutions’ Rachel Winer … retired Lt. Gen. Ricky Waddell … former Reps. David Jolly (R-Fla.) and John Barrow (D-Ga.) … Archana Mehta … Kara Gerhardt Ross … George Bogden … Justin Bis … Mark Jacobson of the Partnership for Public Service … Daryl Messinger … Piper Perabo Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen (on Halloween or any other day) without our editor Mike Die-Bones, deputy editor Zack-o’-lantern Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Sud-death.
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