Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Can Gavin Newsom help in House races?

Inside the Golden State political arena
Oct 30, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook Newsletter Header

By Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is seen in the spin room after a debate.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is seen in the spin room at Georgia Institute of Technology's McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, Ga., June 27, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE BUZZ: TALES FROM THE TRAIL — Gov. Gavin Newsom is a seasoned surrogate, an adept fundraiser and a savvy political operator.

He’s also unpopular in the California House districts Democrats want to flip.

The governor, like many of his political peers, is planning to hit the trail this weekend for a final get-out-the-vote push before Tuesday. He has been a frequent guest star in the presidential campaign, but hasn’t been as visible in his home state’s toughest races, where swing voters view him as emblematic of the problems facing California, especially the high cost of living.

Newsom in 2022 didn’t win any of the six most hotly contested House seats Democrats are trying to flip (Reps. John Duarte, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Michelle Steel, Mike Garcia and Katie Porter’s vacant seat). His statewide approval rating is about 47 percent, according to the latest public poll . And in a time when the cost of living tops voters’ list of concerns, his recent push to hold oil companies accountable for gas-price spikes has given Republicans fresh fodder around the cost of fuel.

“The more swing voters think about Sacramento, the worse it is for Democrats,” said one California Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the governor. “Campaigning with a relatively unpopular Democratic governor would be validating the message Republicans have spent millions on.”

Nathan Click, a spokesperson for the governor’s campaign side, disagreed with the idea that Newsom won’t be helpful in the swing seats. His team pointed out that he’s already done public events this cycle with Democratic candidates in tough districts.

“He’s been very active and visible on the campaign trail, both nationally and in California, supporting candidates in some of the toughest races, from VP Harris in some of the tightest swing states to Congressional and legislative candidates here in CA,” Click said in a statement.

Newsom’s team has yet to confirm where he’ll be going ahead of Tuesday, but the GOP has been using the Democratic governor as a cudgel in House districts — tying their opponents to the state’s top official and what Republicans have characterized as his extreme, radical agenda. (Though he’s definitely a moderate by Democratic standards.) He is not alone. In New York, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul finds herself starring in attack ads from vulnerable House Republicans.

“Gavin Newsom and [Democratic candidate] Adam Gray: Sacramento politicians who make us pay more for groceries, even raise the gas tax,” warns one ad from the NRCC and Duarte’s campaign, which started running last week. “Newsom and Gray are one and the same.”

The narrative has Democrats feeling everything from apathetic to wary about appearing alongside him in the final days of a tense election.

“I don’t think he’s a drag, but I don’t think he’s a huge value ad, either,” said one California Democratic consultant, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the governor’s impact. “It’s not like anyone’s running away from Gavin Newsom — it’s like, what does he do?”

There's a clear reason why Newsom — like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi before him — has become a punching bag down ballot.

GOP congressmembers are trying to tap into an anti-incumbent sentiment that has become especially prominent this cycle. Republicans want to remind voters that they live in a state governed by Democrats, amplifying the disgust swing voters may have for Sacramento policies.

In Calvert’s Palm Springs race, where total advertising spending has reached a whopping $31 million, GOP groups have spent nearly $4 million on ads tying Democratic opponent Will Rollins to the governor. Calvert’s is the only swing district of the six that voted against Newsom in both 2018 and 2022, and the only one to vote for former President Donald Trump in 2020.

One of the ads, which ran for several weeks this month, claims Rollins supports higher taxes and wants to make California less affordable, just like Newsom has.

“Newsom. Will Rollins. There’s no difference,” the narrator says.

Coby Eiss, campaign manager for the Rollins campaign, said in a statement that “CLF is panicking because of how many Republicans are backing Will instead of Calvert, who’s underperforming the top of his own ticket.”

While an in-person appearance may not do much good, Newsom is, indubitably, a helpful fundraiser. He has flexed his impressive presidential Rolodex to candidates’ advantage this cycle, often sending out emails through his Campaign For Democracy PAC asking recipients to split a donation between a handful of Democrats. One campaign operative told us just one of those emails can easily net a candidate $30,000-$40,000.

Newsom has raised nearly $2 million for California congressional races through various methods, a spokesperson for the governor told us — with Democratic candidates Rudy Salas, Gray, and Rollins being the top recipients.

GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

CAMPAIGN YEAR

Josh Newman holds a pen and sits at his desk.

In this June 15, 2017 file photo, is state Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton, at the Capitol, in Sacramento, Calif. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: WHAT ADS? — Consultant and lobbyist Richie Ross previously claimed that he wasn’t involved in his client AFSCME 3299’s decision to hit Democratic state Sen. Josh Newman with a series of scorched-earth ads, helping his Republican opponent.

“I don’t speak for them. You’d have to ask them,” Ross told Playbook when asked about the union’s decision. Ross also said he didn’t have any knowledge about the rationale for the swipe at Newman.

While Ross insists he had nothing to do with the call, he's cashing checks for the union's attack ads. A recent campaign-finance report states the union’s political arm paid Ross’ firm $500,000 for TV ads attacking Newman — the most vulnerable Senate Democrat — and boosting Republican Steven Choi.

Ross didn’t respond to requests for comment from Playbook.

FOR GOOD MEASURE

BALLOT GUIDE — As the days tick down toward Nov. 5 — and your friends and family continue to bug you about what any of these ballot measures actually mean — we hope you consider sharing our California ballot-measure voter guide. If we can briefly brag, it’s a fun read for both the uninitiated and people who like and care about politics.

Please share the politico.com/caballot link with your community, and we hope you learn something new.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY

FARMING THE SUN — Westlands Water District is usually known for its ties to former President Donald Trump and for fighting aggressively for every extra drop of water it can get for its farmers. But its future in a water-strapped world now depends on a big Biden-esque gamble: turning dry fields into solar farms. Read more in last night's California Climate.

Top Talkers

Nicole Shanahan, running mate of Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., arrives at a campaign stop, Monday, May 13, 2024, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Nicole Shanahan, running mate of Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., arrives at a campaign stop, Monday, May 13, 2024, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay) | AP

BEFORE HER VEEP BID — Nicole Shanahan — the Silicon Valley lawyer who was Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate before he dropped out of the presidential race in August — lived a “rarefied and sometimes turbulent life” filled with elite parties, recreational drugs and complicated personal relationships prior to her vice presidential bid, The New York Times reports.

The report includes new details from sources about an alleged, ketamine-laced fling Shanahan had with Elon Musk in 2021, before she separated with Google founder Sergey Brin. Both she and Musk have publicly denied the affair.

THE TECH QUESTION — Will Sam Liccardo or Evan Low get tough on tech if elected to succeed retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo as Silicon Valley’s representative in Congress? It’s a bit of a mixed bag, The Washington Post reports, with the candidates’ history revealing support for privacy protections but a willingness to side with industry in AI regulations. Liccardo, who was more willing to chat with the Post than Low, said he would not support Lina Khan returning as chair of the Federal Trade Commission.

AROUND THE STATE

— A San Francisco aquarium is embroiled in turmoil and dueling lawsuits over a former CEO’s ouster. The controversy includes fierce debate about what happened to more than 100 vials of shark blood. (San Francisco Chronicle)

Meet venture capitalist Mark Farrell and Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie , the two candidates with a solid shot at ousting incumbent San Francisco Mayor London Breed in next week’s election. (Los Angeles Times)

— Federal officials are planning to drop $42 million to buy out homes damaged by ongoing landslides in Rancho Palos Verdes. (Los Angeles Times)

PLAYBOOKERS

PEOPLE MOVES — Beth Parsons has been elected board president at the California Alliance of Child and Family Services. She is also CEO of Youth for Change.

Christopher L. Tinen has joined the San Diego office of the law firm Snell & Wilmer, as a Partner in the Corporate and Securities practice. He was previously Partner at California firm Procopio, Cory, Hargreaves & Savitch LLP.

BIRTHDAYS — Marco Rodriguez with the Assembly budget team … Treasury’s Paul RosenTony FreschMitch Glazier of the Recording Industry Association of America … Nu Wexler of Four Corners Public Affairs

WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com .

 

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