Wednesday, November 2, 2022

🛢 Stockpile strategy

Plus: White House vs. "Big Meat" | Wednesday, November 02, 2022
 
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Axios Markets
By Matt Phillips and Emily Peck · Nov 02, 2022

👋 🐪 Hi again! Happy Fed Day. (The next rate hike is due at 2pm ET.) But before that, let's discuss the growing role of government in markets — energy and food markets, to be exact. We're moving into a new era, as Matt explains.

Read on! It's 1,011 words, 4 minutes.

 
 
1 big thing: Using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve strategically
Illustrations of two oil barrels facing off on a chessboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

America's national crude oil reserve is the federal government's main weapon in the current energy wars. Some say it's time to rethink how it's used, Matt writes.

Why it matters: Questions about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reflect how the global economy is shifting away from the market-led system that flourished after the Cold War, to one with more government involvement in industries key to security — like oil and computer chips.

Driving the news: The Biden administration is on pace to dump a couple hundred million barrels of crude on the market since it started tapping the reserve in March.

  • That may have helped push gasoline prices down from the $5 a gallon we saw in June.
  • It's also drastically shrunk the nation's oil reserves, which are at their lowest level since the mid-1980s.

The rub: The release hasn't solved the main problem, though, which is that U.S. oil producers have been slow to respond to higher prices with increased production.

The big idea: Momentum appears to be building for a more consistent and muscular use of the SPR as a tool to help insulate both oil producers and American consumers from big price swings.

  • That would be a stark change from the SPR's historical use as simply a storehouse for emergency oil supplies — and it could potentially reshape the way the global oil market works.

How it works: It's not rocket science. In essence, these proposals — most clearly sketched out by left-leaning economic policy shop Employ America — suggest that the government commit to refilling the SPR via long-term, fixed-price contracts.

  • Such an approach is now possible thanks to a recent rule change at the Department of Energy.
  • Previously, the DOE had been limited to buying oil using futures contracts that were indexed to market prices at the time of delivery. That left producers still exposed to the uncertainty of market swings.
  • "Fixed-price contracts can give producers the assurance to make investments today, knowing that the price they receive when they sell to the SPR will be locked in place, providing them with some protection against downward movements in the market," the DOE has said in public statements advocating for such an approach.

💭 Our thought bubble: When combined with the recent, large-scale releases from the reserve in response to surging prices, the prospect of long-term contracts to refill the national oil tank could amount to a new mechanism that the U.S. could use to stabilize prices.

What they're saying: "If the goal is to catalyze more investment, you have a pretty interesting carrot at your disposal," says Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, of the ability to offer long-term markets for oil producers in the SPR.

Read the full story.

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2. Charted: SPR slide
Data: FactSet, Department of Energy; Chart: Axios Visuals
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3. Catch up quick

🌾 Russia resumes participation in Ukraine export deal. (CNBC)

⚕️The next health care wars are about costs. (Axios)

  • Sign up for Axios Pro Health Care Policy for a special pre-launch edition about which cost battles to watch.

⬆️ Qatar Investment Authority plans to raise Credit Suisse stake. (FT)

🚢 Maersk posts record profit but warns shipping container demand has weakened. (CNBC)

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4. Battery battle
Data: S&P Global Mobility; Chart: Axios Visuals

The geopolitical turmoil that's keeping oil prices high is also undercutting the transition to electric-everything, as Axios Pro Climate's Alan Neuhauser writes.

Driving the news: A new report from S&P Global Mobility puts hard numbers on how geopolitical problems, along with supply chain disruptions and inflation, are sending prices for key battery components soaring.

Why it matters: Batteries are at the heart of the energy transition — they're needed for electric vehicles, to firm up intermittent renewables like wind and solar, and for on-site backup power. Meanwhile, they're in just about every consumer wearable.

  • That puts them at the center of fierce demand — and intense competition — for raw materials.
  • "The battery will be the defining technological and supply chain battleground for the industry in the next decade," the report says.

What they're saying: "Elements such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt do not just magically appear and transform into EV batteries and other components," S&P says.

  • "The intermediate steps between excavation and final assembly are a particular choke point in terms of expertise and market presence."

Read the full story ... Sign up for Axios Pro Climate Deals ...

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5. $223 million to fight "Big Meat"
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack speaks on rising food prices at a press briefing at the White House on September 08, 2021 in Washington, DC.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack speaks on rising food prices at the White House on Sept. 8, 2021. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

 

The Biden administration this morning announced a $223 million investment meant to expand meat and poultry processing capacity in the U.S., part of an effort to tame sky-high food inflation, Emily writes.

Why it matters: Meat and poultry prices are soaring at the moment, but the White House efforts are long-term — the funds go toward loans and grants for smaller meat processing companies and farmers that can compete against "Big Meat." The payoff will take a while.

  • "There are multiple reasons for increased [meat and poultry] costs. This is obviously going to have an impact," Tom Vilsack, secretary of Agriculture, said on a call with reporters yesterday.
  • "It will take some time. There's no question about that."

Catch up quick: The latest announcement is part of a plan Biden announced back in January, committing $1 billion in funding from the American Rescue Plan.

Details: The broad idea is to support regional meat and poultry processors that can compete with the big four — Cargill, Tyson Foods, JBS and National Beef Packing Co. — that dominate the industry.

  • More processors would mean that farmers would theoretically fetch a better price for cattle and poultry, while at the same time increasing competition among processors would lower prices for consumers.
  • Context: Meat prices are up 22% since January 2020, according to CPI data.

The other side: Business groups say higher energy and labor costs — not excessive market power — are driving up meat and poultry prices.

Zoom out: The administration came in hot on tackling antitrust issues even before soaring inflation became the most pressing economic issue. And it has since turned the fight against corporate consolidation into a cornerstone of its efforts to combat rising prices.

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Today's newsletter was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece.

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