👀 McCarthy's new peril

Plus: New York Dems spoil House party | Wednesday, November 09, 2022

Open in app View in browser     Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Nov 09, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. We hope you got more sleep than we did. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,080 words ... 4 minutes.     1 big thing: McCarthy's new peril House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy speaks early this morning alongside RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel and NRCC Chair Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) at a watch party in Washington, D.C. Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images   House Republicans are coming to grips with the harsh reality of what a single-digit majority could look like — starting with a newly empowered far-right flank that could seriously threaten Kevin McCarthy's House speaker ambitions. Why it matters: McCarthy, who arguably took a more hands-on approach to candidate recruitment and fundraising than any past House GOP leader, is now in an extremely vulnerable position, Axios' Alayna Treene and Andrew Solender report. McCarthy had planned to take the stage at his election night party to declare victory as early as 10pm ET — expecting a red wave would put him on a glide path to becoming Speaker. But the red wave never came, and even his 2am declaration that Republicans would be in the majority when attendees woke up in the morning failed to come to fruition. State of play: With minimal wiggle room, McCarthy's hunt for the 218 votes needed to be elected speaker has become more difficult than he'd expected. Privately, House GOP lawmakers and aides tell Axios they're unsure he can pull it off. Some are even saying as much publicly. "Kevin McCarthy has not done anything to earn my vote for speaker," Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) told Axios following a House Freedom Caucus board call today. "I believe there's a number of members who feel as I do and who will support a challenge to him as the speaker when we convene next week," Good added. Between the lines: The Freedom Caucus and others on the GOP conference's far-right are already plotting how they can leverage this new dynamic to their advantage, with plans to force McCarthy and other leaders to make massive concessions to secure their positions in power. It's unlikely that multiple members will come forward to challenge him for the speaker role, according to conversations with multiple House GOP members and staff. More realistic, they say, is a scenario in which McCarthy fails to reach the magic number of 218 or must give away a serious amount of political capital to do so. In this event, universally respected members like Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) or Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) could step forward as alternatives. Share this story.     2. 🌊 New York Dems spoil House party Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) leaves a press conference today after announcing his concession to Republican Mike Lawler. Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images   A Democratic debacle in New York is threatening to become the majority-maker for House Republicans, puncturing what had otherwise been a history-defying election for the party in power, Axios' Zachary Basu and Andrew Solender write. Republicans won all four House races on Long Island and knocked off the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for the first time in more than 40 years. Furious Democratic strategists and outside observers say the wounds were self-inflicted. Flashback: New York Democrats' attempt to aggressively gerrymander the state map backfired in spectacular fashion this spring when state courts intervened at the eleventh hour and ordered an independent mapmaker to draw more neutral lines. New York Democrats then spent the remainder of the campaign getting hammered by Republicans on crime and bail reform — potent issues that allowed GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin to run a closer-than-expected race against Gov. Kathy Hochul. "A good night could have been a great night if NY Dems hadn't screwed up redistricting and ignored voter concerns about crime and disorder," former NYC Deputy Mayor Howard Wolfson tweeted. Behind the scenes: "The finger-pointing on the House losses in NY is at a fever pitch," a New York Democratic source texted Axios unsolicited. "I don't think Hochul created a lot of surround sound for other Democrats running in the state," another New York Democratic strategist told Axios, echoing criticisms of the governor from the final weeks of the campaign. The strategist also laid blame at the feet of disgraced former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for appointing several of the conservative-leaning judges who threw out Democrats' redistricting map: "He's simmering under the surface just making everything stink." What's next: "Voters are screaming for a change in policy," Wolfson told Axios. "We can take these seats back in two years if we address the causes that led to these defeats in the first place." Share this story.     3. ⚡ Biden lightning round Screenshot: MSNBC President Biden declared it was a "good night" for Democrats and democracy at a postelection press conference this afternoon, in which he took questions from eight reporters before setting off on an international trip to Egypt, Cambodia and Indonesia: On the results: A smiling Biden ribbed the press for its predictions of a "red wave," touting last night as the best midterm result for a first-term Democratic president in 40 years. But he acknowledged that Republicans could still win the House and committed to working with the GOP on "good ideas." On possible GOP probes: "It's just, almost comedy. I can't control what they're going to do. All I can do is continue to try to make life better for the American people." On what he'll do differently: "Nothing," Biden told a reporter, dismissing polling that shows 70% of voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. "Because they're just finding out what we're doing. The more they know about what we're doing, the more support there is." On the Trump-DeSantis rivalry: "It'll be fun watching them take on each other."     A message from Axios Get the news you need in just 10 minutes     Catch up on the biggest stories of the day and why they matter with the Axios Today podcast. Host Niala Boodhoo is joined by journalists from Axios' newsroom to unpack the stories shaping your world and the trends shaping our time. Listen for free.     4. 🔥 Dem gamble pays off Data: AP. Table: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals Democrats' meddling in GOP primaries to boost far-right, election-denying candidates was heavily criticized as a cynical move that undermined claims about the threat MAGA Republicans pose to democracy. But the risky gambit — intended to create more favorable general-election matchups for Democrats — appears to have paid off: All six of the Dem-boosted Republicans who made it through the primary were easily defeated last night.     5. 👀 Quote du jour: Trump's "debacle" Mehmet Oz and Trump on Sept. 3 in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. Photo: Michelle Gustafson/Bloomberg via Getty Images   Retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), whose open seat will be filled by Democrat John Fetterman after he defeated Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz, told the Philadelphia Inquirer that the GOP needs to move away from the former president: "Last night across the country was a terrible night for Donald Trump, and an excellent night for Governor DeSantis. The more MAGA a candidate was, the more they tended to underperform even in their own states. ... I don't think there's a discrete moment where the party breaks with Trump in one fell swoop. I think Donald Trump's influence gradually but steadily declines, and I think it accelerates after the debacle that he's responsible for to some degree."     A message from Axios Get the news you need in just 10 minutes     Catch up on the biggest stories of the day and why they matter with the Axios Today podcast. Host Niala Boodhoo is joined by journalists from Axios' newsroom to unpack the stories shaping your world and the trends shaping our time. Listen for free.   📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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