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| Presented By UPS |
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| Axios Sneak Peek |
| By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Oct 18, 2022 |
| Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,060 words ... 4 minutes. 🛢️ Breaking: President Biden will authorize the release of 15 million more barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to bring down gas prices. ⚡ Situational awareness: The Cook Political Report shifted its ratings this evening for three Senate races, with three weeks until Election Day: - Florida: Lean R to Likely R
- Washington: Solid D to Likely D
- Iowa: Solid R to Likely R
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| 1 big thing: GOP's Ukraine threat |
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| Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios |
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| House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) publicly confirmed today what many in Washington and Europe privately fear: - A Republican-controlled House could shut off the spigot funding Ukraine's efforts to defend itself against Russia's invasion, Axios' Andrew Solender and Zachary Basu report.
Why it matters: Unlike aggressive oversight hearings or political messaging bills, a Republican majority's approach to Ukraine would reverberate far beyond the Beltway. A reduction or halt in U.S. military aid would create a geopolitical earthquake with the potential to alter the trajectory of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war. What's happening: Even House Republicans who have been outspoken about supporting Ukraine — including McCarthy, who this week compared Putin to Hitler — say there has been a noticeable shift away from what was once a broad bipartisan consensus. - "I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they're not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won't do it," McCarthy said in an interview with Punchbowl News.
- "I've noticed it. You see it a little bit on social media, you see it with some of our members," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), though he added he doesn't believe the majority of the conference shares those views.
State of play: In May, 57 House Republicans voted "no" on a $40 billion aid package to Ukraine. That number is poised to rise considerably, especially if more skeptical Republican candidates are swept into Congress in a GOP wave. - "After the $40 billion, there were a lot of Republicans saying, 'This is the last time I'm going to support Ukraine funding,'" said one senior House Republican.
- "Another billion to Ukraine and 87,000 new IRS agents," tweeted Texas candidate Wesley Hunt in August. "At this rate we should at least make them the 51st state so they can start paying some federal income tax."
The intrigue: Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), a steadfast Ukraine supporter who is also a vocal critic of his party's conservative flank, said Republican leadership has been "tiptoeing away" from supporting Ukraine for political reasons. - "Kevin McCarthy, let's be clear ... his whole existence right now is to please enough people to win the speakership," Kinzinger told Axios.
- A GOP congressional aide echoed that sentiment and said concern about the House is "overstated," suggesting McCarthy is "counting votes for Speaker and doesn't want to rock the boat ahead of time."
Behind the scenes: Even if McCarthy is just posturing, conservative factions like the 158-member Republican Study Committee are working to oppose future aid spending. - They've been buoyed in that effort by a powerful complex of outside conservative groups that includes the Heritage Foundation, the Koch network, FreedomWorks and the Center for Renewing America.
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| 2. 🇺🇦 Scoop: Texts show new Biden probe target |
| Axios Visuals Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), chair of the right-wing Freedom Caucus, floated to colleagues the idea of laying the groundwork for an investigation into the Biden administration's approach to Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Andrew has learned. Why it matters: Republicans are planning a vast array of investigations into the administration, including into Hunter Biden and the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan last year. But this is among the first specific instances of a proposed probe into how the president has handled the war in Ukraine. Driving the news: In a text late last month to fellow Republican members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, screenshots of which were obtained by Axios, Perry asked whether they had sent a records preservation request to the administration — the first step toward an investigation. - "Have we requested any Administration conversations with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky this spring that included the proposition of an end to Russian occupation in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO?" he wrote.
- "If these nitwits in this jackwagon Administration are blundering us or intentionally marching us to war with Russia, nuclear or otherwise, we'd better start to preserve the evidence so there can be accountability."
Context: Early negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which included proposals for Kyiv to formally abandon its NATO aspirations, collapsed as Putin escalated his brutal assault on civilians. Between the lines: Perry's comments mirror the concerns of isolationists — on both the right and the left — who say the West's support for an outright Ukrainian win could provoke a cornered Putin to take drastic action, including a nuclear strike. Share this story. |
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| 3. 🇷🇺 Steele dossier source acquitted |
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| John Durham. Photo: Ron Sachs/Consolidated News Pictures/Getty Images |
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| Igor Danchenko, a private researcher who was the primary source behind the infamous Steele dossier alleging ties between the 2016 Trump campaign and the Kremlin, was acquitted of charges of lying to the FBI. Why it matters: It's another huge blow to special counsel John Durham, who was tapped by former Attorney General Bill Barr in 2019 to review potential wrongdoing during the FBI's investigation of the Trump campaign. - Durham has now lost both cases that have gone to trial during his 3.5-year investigation. A former FBI lawyer who pleaded guilty to altering a surveillance warrant was sentenced to one year of probation.
- Trump allies had long claimed that the Durham investigation would result in charges against top Obama-era intelligence officials and validate allegations that the Russia investigation was a political "witch hunt."
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| A message from UPS |
| The best healthcare package is affordable for everyone |
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| At UPS, our full- and part-time union employees get health care benefits with no premiums and low or no coinsurance and copays. This way, they can focus on the things that matter most. Find out what these benefits mean to our employees and their families. |
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| 4. 🗣️ Quote du jour: Just win, baby |
| Screenshot: MSNBC Responding to calls from some vulnerable Democrats for a "new generation" of leadership, the 82-year-old House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell: I say, just win, baby. Just win. If that's what you have to say to win, fine. We will not in any way do anything but [be] totally supportive — mobilization-wise, message-wise, money-wise for those people to win their races. Yes, we need generational change. Of course we do. But in some cases, there's no substitute for experience. |
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| 5. 👀 Parting shot |
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| Photo: Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images |
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| President Biden doubled down today on abortion rights as the centerpiece of Democrats' midterm message, even as polling suggests momentum may be faltering as the economy teeters on the brink of recession. |
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| A message from UPS |
| The best part-time work is a job that works for you |
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| Part-time workers shouldn't have to worry about getting the hours they need. UPS part-time union employees make an average of $18 per hour with 3.5 hours guaranteed every workday, plus low-cost healthcare with no premiums, tuition reimbursement and a pension. Learn how UPS delivers success. |
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| 📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. |
 | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | |
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