Friday, October 21, 2022

😎Don’t Overlook This Potential Crisis

Good morning. Next year will likely see the Fed pivot away from its interest rate hikes, which...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Next year will likely see the Fed pivot away from its interest rate hikes, which should lead to a market rally in 2023. However, a number of issues at play could still weigh on some parts of the market.

One area is in food production. Two-thirds of European fertilizer production has been shut down this year, which could lead to lower crop production next year. And exports for fertilizers and crops from Ukraine remain uncertain. That suggests higher food prices, which tends to lead to reduced spending in other parts of the economy.

While America is food independent, higher prices will still be in play as well. That will add to the current inflationary concerns, and make the Fed's eventual pivot later than expected. For now, expect markets to remain volatile, and look for investments in the food space that can hedge against even higher prices.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 30,333.59 -0.30%
S&P 3,665.78 -0.80%
NASDAQ 10,614.84 -0.61%
*As of market close
Stocks moved lower on Thursday, erasing morning gains.
Oil rose 0.2 percent, closing at $85.71 per barrel.
Gold dropped 0.2 percent, last going for about $1,631 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded slightly lower, with Bitcoin at $19,074 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Invest Today in the Infrastructure of Tomorrow
The only constant in life is change. Even great companies that have consistently rewarded shareholders for years come up with new products or find ways to improve profitability for the work that they do.

That's especially true for companies that are making the switch to the latest digital trends. While the Internet has now been around for a generation, its use is still growing as more join online networks and conduct tasks there that used to only take place in the real world.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Owens & Minor (OMI)
Robert Henkel, a director at Owens & Minor (OMI), recently added 1,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 3.7 percent, and came to a total cost of just under $16,000.

The director was also the most recent buyer of shares back in July, also picking up 1,000 shares at a price more than double where the stock trades today. Over the past two years, these have been the only insider buys, compared to a number of insider sales.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Procter & Gamble (PG)
Shares of consumer goods company Procter & Gamble (PG) moved higher earlier this week on earnings, although the company did warn on the effect of a strong dollar. One trader sees that as bearish.

That's based on the January 2024 $80 puts. With 455 days until expiration, 5,002 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 214, for a 35-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.78 to make the trade.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Demand for Luxury Goods Remains Strong

Despite a slowing economy, luxury goods producers report continued strength among buyers. Hermes (RMS) reports that sales are up 24 percent on an exchange-rate basis. The company also expects to raise prices by 5-10 percent in the coming months given the strong demand and inflationary pressures.
Work From Home Policies Spur Baby Bump

US birth rates rose 6.2 percent from pre-pandemic levels in 2021, according to the latest data. This baby bump came about from pandemic trends such as close proximity and increased work flexibility. It's the first major reversal in declining birth rates in the US since 2007.
Turkey Lowers Interest Rates Amid High Inflation

Turkey's central bank lowered interest rates by 1.5 percent, from 12 percent to 10.5 percent. Analysts had been expecting a 1 percent cut. The move is occurring as inflation is still high at 83 percent, and as the Turkish lira has fallen by 50 percent against the US dollar in the past year.
Palladium's Bull Run Likely to Continue

Palladium is outperforming other precious metals so far this year. The metal is likely to continue rising thanks to strong demand and low supplies being brought to market. Part of the outperformance is the production of the metal in areas embroiled in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
US to Add Cyber Labeling Program for Devices Next Year

Internet-of-things (IoT) devices sold in the US will have a cybersecurity label on them starting next year. that's part of a move to ensure that Americans are aware of the risks involved in using such devices, which may contain sensitive personal data. IoT devices can also be used to access networks that would otherwise be more secure.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
LRCX 7.533%
T 7.368%
DGX 6%
LVS 5.084%
IBM 4.84%
BOTTOM
ALL 12.638%
UNP 6.813%
TSLA 6.805%
EFX 6.782%
FITB 6.494%

Quote of the Day
If you keep things simple and say the 10-year Treasury is the risk-free rate that basically the majority of other asset classes in the world are priced off of ... that is going to cause choppy markets across the board. The market is overall hanging in there somewhat, I don't want to say well, but not as bad as it could be given that 4% is a demarcation line that has really pressured equities.
- Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, on why the stock market is likely reacting to changes in bond yields, which have been rising at a rapid rate this year.

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