Thursday, September 15, 2022

🎁Here’s Why You May Want to Get that Holiday Shopping Done Now

Good morning. Last year, we suggested shopping early for the holidays as ports were backed up...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Last year, we suggested shopping early for the holidays as ports were backed up, with cargo ships waiting offshore hitting record levels. While that's moderated this year, freight rail employees are still gearing up to go on strike. Companies are even winding down shipments.

That could lead to the next wave of shortages on store shelves. And it's a good reason to get any shopping done now for the next few months, as any strike-related shutdown may end quickly, but could still create reverberations that last for months.

For traders, it's also a sign that any company dependent on getting goods into store shelves may suffer lost sales if the goods aren't there. In today's volatile markets, that could be a safe spot to make downside bets in the coming weeks.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 31,135.09 +0.10%
S&P 3,946.02 +0.34%
NASDAQ 11,719.68 +0.74%
*As of market close
Markets moved higher on Wednesday, rebounding from their worst day in 2 years.
Oil rose 1.5 percent, to $88.64 per barrel.
Gold sank 0.7 percent, last going for about $1,706 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies continued lower, with Bitcoin at $19,979 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Keep Buying Companies Improving Their Product Offerings
Many companies have been hit hard by the pandemic as they've failed to pivot to business strategies better suited to events. However, companies that have made the pivot have been faring better. Some are more profitable as a result, while some are still building out the infrastructure to succeed.

That's leading to a number of companies showing growth now, or in future quarters, that may be being discounted by today's fearful markets… creating a solid long-term buying opportunity.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)
Tamara Gustavson, a director at American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), recently bought 422,203 shares. The buy increased her holdings by just over 2 percent, and came to a total price of $15.4 million.

This is the director's second largest buy of the year, following a 755,000-share pickup back in May, at a cost of just under $21 million. Over the past year, insider buying and selling has been about matched, with sellers having an edge going back further.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)
Shares of gold producer Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) have been volatile with gold prices in the past year. They're now down 20 percent. And one trader sees the potential for a further decline in the coming weeks.

That's based on the October $35 puts. With 36 days until expiration, 4,011 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 250, for a 16-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $3.50 to get in.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Producer Price Index Drops for Second Straight Month

The Producer Price Index (PPI) has dropped 0.1 percent for August. That's the second month of decline, following a 0.4 percent drop in July. The PPI measures the costs of goods for suppliers before they reach final consumers. The move suggests that inflation may be starting to slow, just at a slower pace than investors have expected.
Food Prices Could Remain High Amid Poor Weather Conditions

Food prices may remain high this year, even with inflation potentially slowing down. That's due to a variety of weather-related factors. The largest ones are drought conditions in many key growing areas, as well as high heat. Added to that is the uncertainty of fertilizer supplies, where the major exporting country of Russia has had exports reduced due to sanctions.
Mortgage Demand Drops 29 Percent Compared to Last Year

Mortgage application volume dropped 1.2 percent in the past week, as mortgage rates crept up to 6 percent, their highest levels since 2008. Overall, mortgage demand is down 29 percent compared to the past year. Refinance demand is also down significantly, as mortgage rates have effectively doubled in the past year.
EU Court Confirms Record Fine Against Google

The European Union's General Court has agreed with the European Commission's 2018 decision that Google (GOOG) abused its dominant position to violate antitrust laws by using Android's operating system to favor the Chrome internet browser. The court has confirmed a record $4.1 billion fine against the company.
Twilio Lays Off 11 Percent of Staff

Cloud communication software company Twilio (TWLO) has announced that it will lay off about 11 percent of staff. That will work out to over 800 people. The company is looking to rein in costs during the current economic downturn, and is looking to hit profitability next year.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
CTRA  6.72%
APA  5.843%
MRNA 5.468%
SBUX 5.288%
RCL 4.662%
BOTTOM
NUE 12.01%
CNC 7.264%
DISH 7.201%
MHK 5.475%
CRL 5.214%

Quote of the Day
I think we may even go back and retest the June lows. Certainly the 3900 is just so tempting, and you're pulling back below the 50-day moving average here. It's very much about the technicals. It's not so much that the one number made the economy go topsy-turvy. It meant a lot of guys who were making preliminary favorable bets got caught off base.
- Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations, on why the market is likely to re-test its June lows before moving higher.

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