News: POLITICO Florida Playbook: Pocketbook troubles in Florida could ding DeSantis

Wednesday, July 27, 2022

POLITICO Florida Playbook: Pocketbook troubles in Florida could ding DeSantis

Jul 27, 2022

Hello and welcome to Wednesday.

Opponent — Ron DeSantis isn't running against Nikki Fried or Charlie Crist this fall. The Republican governor has made it clear time and time again his real opponent is President Joe Biden.

Sign of the times — That's a strategy that makes sense given Biden's poor approval ratings in the state, coupled with high gas prices, inflationary pressures, and the looming threat of a recession. DeSantis' speeches and remarks are punctuated with jabs at Biden over topics such as the economy and immigration.

The good news — The governor is able to tout how the state has seen an influx of population during the Covid-19 pandemic and how Florida's unemployment rate is below the national average.

On the horizon — But a storm — both literally and figuratively — could blow the governor off solid ground in the next few months. The residential property insurance crisis isn't going away and this week the state avoided a potential catastrophe when a ratings agency backed off downgrading more than two dozen property insurers. If the ratings had been lowered, the agency could have created havoc in the real estate industry — an important cog of the Florida's economy.

Pocketbook concerns — This is all playing out now and Florida hasn't even gotten into the heart of hurricane season, where a major storm could cause a near-complete collapse of the insurance market. Meanwhile, residents of the state continue to be squeezed by rising rents and housing costs — and in the next few weeks they could get squeezed even more as they find out that they may be paying pay out more in property taxes.

Tax bill cometh — That red-hot economy of late means that the values of homes and property across the state have been soaring. Some local governments will roll back their tax rates to ensure that residents don't get hit with a higher bill. But many cities and counties will either keep tax rates flat or only do a small roll back. Local leaders will contend they aren't "raising taxes" but the end result is that amid sky-high inflation people will be paying even more to government.

Will it resonate? — DeSantis' two Democratic rivals for governor have tried to pivot to the state's affordability crisis but it still hasn't become the main campaign issue like it was in 2006, when Charlie Crist won his race for governor (albeit as a Republican). The clear fact, however, is that living in Paradise has a cost — and it keeps going up, up, and up. Is it something that voters will take into account this November?

— WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis is scheduled to hold a press conference in Tampa.

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CAMPAIGN MODE

SEMINOLES SEND MORE MONEY TO RGA — The Republican Governor's Association — which has been one of the largest overall donors to Gov. Ron DeSantis ' political committee — reported in its latest filing with the IRS that it received another $1 million check from the Seminole Tribe of Florida in late May. The check came in a week before RGA donated $1.25 million to Friends of Ron DeSantis. This latest contribution from the tribe, which got the rights to sports betting in Florida as part of a deal with DeSantis that is now tied up in court, is on top of $2 million it gave earlier this year.

Other Florida donors — The RGA has so far given more than $15 million to DeSantis' reelection effort this cycle. Its second quarter filing includes hundreds of donors from Florida, including many small-dollar donors. Miles Collier, owner of a real estate investment and development company, donated $500,000 in April. The supermarket chain Publix donated $100,000 in May, bringing its yearly total to the RGA to $300,000. James France , the chairman and CEO of NASCAR, donated $35,000 to RGA in April. Florida-based contractor AshBritt donated $50,000 in June, which brings the company's yearly total to $120,000.

'HE WOULDN'T HAVE WON' — " Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis jockey for position ahead of potential 2024 showdown ," by The Wall Street Journal's Alex Leary: "[Gov. Ron] DeSantis, who declined an interview request, is favored to win re-election in November, and he hasn't joined the parade of candidates in other races around the country wooing [former President Donald] Trump for his endorsement. The former president has asked friends about how Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist is performing in his bid to take on Mr. DeSantis in November—implying, according to people familiar with the discussions, he wants his understudy to sweat a little. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Monday, Mr. Trump said he would vote for Mr. DeSantis's re-election in November but quickly turned to his role in helping Mr. DeSantis four years ago."

'Only Ron matters' — "A person close to Mr. Trump said he wasn't concerned about other would-be 2024 candidates, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and several conservative senators. 'Only Ron matters,' the person said. Another Republican who talks to the former president said, 'Trump wants to find something harder to say but really can't because DeSantis has played it well.'"

SWAMP VISIT — Trump, in return to D.C., hints at 2024 while rehashing 2020, by POLITICO's Myah Ward: Former President Donald Trump marked his return to the nation's capital on Tuesday with a speech looking toward 2024 but also relitigating the 2020 election. Trump for the most part used the keynote address at the America First Policy Institute summit to talk about the November midterms and the next race for the White House — at least temporarily setting aside his obsession with the contest he lost. "I'm here before you to begin to talk about what we must do to achieve that future when we win a triumphant victory in 2022 and when a Republican president takes back the White House in 2024, which I strongly believe will happen," Trump said, speaking at the Marriott Marquis in the address for his allied think tank's America First Agenda Summit.

— Trump returns to the scene of his tarnished legacy , by POLITICO's Meredith McGraw

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 26: Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the America First Agenda Summit, at the Marriott Marquis hotel July 26, 2022 in Washington, DC. Former U.S. President Donald Trump returned to Washington today to deliver the keynote closing address at the summit. The America First Agenda Summit is put on by the American First Policy Institute, a conservative think-tank founded in 2021 by Brooke Rollins and Larry Kudlow, both former advisors to former President Trump. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

MURPHY: DEM STRATEGY 'MIND-BLOWING' — House Dems berate campaign arm over 'very dangerous' GOP primary scheme , by POLITICO's Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick: "No race is worth compromising your values in that way," said Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), who sits on the committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and Trump's election-subverting schemes that preceded it. Democrats, like Murphy, fear the strategy could easily backfire, if a candidate like [John] Gibbs were to win the general election amid a GOP wave — and the party also risks undercutting its own core message about the dangers of MAGA Republicans taking power. It could be harder for Democrats to claim that certain GOP candidates are an existential threat to the country if they are also using party money to push them closer to winning office.

More from Murphy — "Many of us are facing death threats over our efforts to tell the truth about Jan. 6. To have people boosting candidates telling the very kinds of lies that caused Jan. 6 and continues to put our democracy in danger, is just mind-blowing," said Murphy, who is not seeking reelection this fall.

WHAT'S IN YOUR WALLET? — " Republicans' Senate campaign boss just admitted his candidates have a money problem ," by CNN's Chris Cilliza: "Rick Scott is in charge of winning back the Senate majority for Republicans this November. And he's worried. 'Look, we have great candidates, we have every reason to believe we can win,' the Florida senator said in a speech at the America First Policy Institute summit on Monday. 'The issue we've got is we've got to raise money.' Scott, who runs the Senate Republicans' campaign arm, is pointing to the vast fundraising deficit that some of the top-tier Republican candidates face with less than four months before the midterm elections."

PRIMARY COLORS — " Election 2022: Worm farmer battles egg farmer in GOP agriculture commissioner race ," by Orlando Sentinel's Jeffrey Schweers: "Wilton Simpson, a multimillionaire egg farmer and state senator from Trilby heavily favored to become the next Florida agriculture commissioner, has a millionaire worm farmer running against him in the Republican primary. Also, the three Democrats who are vying for their party nomination are long shots to defeat Simpson, with little money or name recognition needed for a state Cabinet position. Whoever wins the Aug. 23 primary will face the Republican nominee."

BY THE NUMBERS — So far, 160,587 vote-by-mail ballots have been cast for the Aug. 23 primary, according to the latest information on the state Division of Elections website. Of those, 70,959 have come from Republicans and 61,637 have come from registered Democrats. Overall, there are more than 3.91 million mail ballots that have been requested but not yet returned. Of those, nearly 1.75 million are held by Democrats and nearly 1.25 million are with Republicans.

FOR YOUR RADAR — " More than 25,000 Broward mail ballots are late getting sent to voters ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Anthony Man: "Some 25,000 mail ballots for the August primaries and nonpartisan elections in Broward County are late, and haven't yet gone in the mail. They've been intentionally held back, Supervisor of Elections Joe Scott said Tuesday, to ensure accuracy of addresses and to make sure people don't receive the wrong ballots."

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — DeSantis on Tuesday endorsed Kiyan Michael, who is one of three Republicans running for a state House seat in northeast Florida. Michael, whose son was killed by an undocumented immigrant, was highlighted by DeSantis in his 2019 State of the State speech. Michael testified in favor of legislation that banned "sanctuary cities" in the state. "Kiyan Michael is an Angel Mom, military spouse & lifelong Jacksonville resident," said DeSantis in a tweet announcing the endorsement. "Kiyan has stood with me in the fight against illegal immigration and will be a leader in the Florida House as we fight Biden's open border policies." …

… The governor's endorsement is a big blow to two other Republicans in the race — former state Rep. Lake Ray and Jacksonville Beach City Council Member Chet Stokes — who had significantly outpaced Michael in fundraising and had also picked up their own endorsements.

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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

STORM BREWING? — " Crist: DeSantis takes victory lap while property insurance crisis deepens, " by USA Today Network-Florida's John Kennedy: "Democrat Charlie Crist turned up the heat Tuesday on Gov. Ron DeSantis as the state's property insurance woes deepened two months after he signed into law industry-friendly measures stemming from a special session of the Legislature. The move by Crist came a day after Bankers Insurance Group, based in his hometown St. Petersburg, announced it was pulling out of Florida. The company is at least the 16th insurer to leave the state, declare insolvency or stop writing policies in recent months. Close to 400,000 Florida homeowners have lost their insurance coverage this year."

ANOTHER LAWSUIT — " Four Florida school districts sued over vagueness in law known as 'don't say gay ,'" by News Service of Florida's Jim Saunders: "Parents, students and a non-profit organization have filed a federal lawsuit against four Florida school districts, challenging the constitutionality of a new state law that restricts instruction on gender identity and sexual orientation in classrooms. The lawsuit, filed Monday in federal court in Orlando, seeks to block the school boards in Orange, Indian River, Duval and Palm Beach counties from carrying out the law (HB 1557), which passed during this year's legislative session after fierce debate. Attorneys for the plaintiffs argued in the 53-page complaint that the law violates First Amendment, due-process and equal-protection rights and improperly chills discussion of issues such as gender identity and sexual orientation."

OOPS — " Florida's transportation agency faulted in SunPass contract deal ," by Tampa Bay Times' Lawrence Mower: "In the latest questionable award for the state, a Tallahassee judge last week rejected the agency's decision to give a potential $157 million contract to Emovis US, the winning bidder on a seven-year contract to take over tolling operations for the state's turnpike authority. Administrative Law Judge John Van Laningham last week blasted the state's procurement, calling some of the language 'inexplicably sloppy' and recommending it rescind the award because Emovis US didn't meet the minimum requirements. (The judge's decision was first reported by News Service of Florida.)"

TRANSITIONS — Anna DeCerchio, who is a deputy chief of staff for DeSantis, will become chief of staff at the Department of Environmental Protection next month. Taryn Fenske, a spokeswoman for DeSantis, said in a statement that "Anna has been integral to implementing Governor DeSantis' agenda since day one of the administration. She is one of the administration's top experts on environmental policy and we are excited she will continue to drive our agenda going forward." Melissa Smith is scheduled to join the governor's office as deputy chief of staff overseeing public safety, transportation and the environment. Smith had led the public safety unit in the governor's budget office for he past year.

— " Fla. Dept. of Ed. to require schools to tell parents if overnight stays are 'separated by biological sex ,'" by Florida Politics Gray Rohrer

DATELINE D.C.

Reaction — " 19-year-old turns Gaetz insult into $115K abortion rights fundraiser ," by Washington Post's Andrew Jeong: "Days after being publicly insulted by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) on Twitter, Olivia Julianna, a 19-year-old abortion rights advocate, wrote him a tongue-in-cheek thank-you note on the platform. 'Dear Matt, Although your intentions were hateful, your public shaming of my appearance has done nothing but benefit me,' she wrote after his tweet about her spurred a load of harassment — as well as a flood of donations to her reproductive rights advocacy organization. In just about a day, she's helped raise approximately $115,000 for the nonprofit Gen Z for Change."

— " Pro-life leaders condemn Rep. Matt Gaetz's 'hideous comments' about abortion activists ," by Catholic News Agency's Maisy Sullivan

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

HMM — " Wawa reaches $8 million settlement with eight states over data breach — but Florida victims won't see any of it ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Ron Hurtibise: "Wawa has agreed to pay $8 million to end a multistate investigation into a data breach that compromised up to 34 million credit and debit cards used at its stores in 2019. Florida will receive up to $1.1 million in the settlement but Attorney General Ashley Moody does not plan to share the money with Florida victims of the breach. 'The money secured in today's announcement will go toward future consumer protection and privacy enforcement efforts to hold deceptive actors accountable and to consumer education,' said Kylie Mason, deputy communications director for Moody's office, in an email on Tuesday."

— " Orange commission approves measure requiring notice for rent hikes ," by Orlando Sentinel's Stephen Hudak

— " Parkland killer said he wanted rifle to go shooting with friends, former gun shop owner tells jury ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Scott Travis and Rafael Olmeda

— " Bank founded by exile in Miami handles Cuba's accounts for diplomatic posts in U.S. ," by El Nuevo Herald's Nora Gamez Torres

— " Miami Mayor Francis Suarez still supports cryptocurrency despite major drop in value ," by Miami Herald's Joey Flechas

— " Jacksonville Mayor Curry budgets $500K to remove Confederate monuments, faces split council ," by Florida Times-Union's David Bauerlein

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

BIRTHDAYS: Retired Admiral Craig Faller, former commander of U.S. Southern Command … Journalist Eric J. Lyman