Thursday, March 24, 2022

☕️ NZ -> NYC

We need to talk about fertilizer...
March 24, 2022 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

The Ascent

Good morning. Stephen Wilhite, the creator of the GIF, has died at 74, The Verge reported. The GIF, or Graphics Interchange Format, dates back to the 1980s, when Wilhite was looking for a way to send high-quality graphics in color during the early stages of the internet.

If you're wondering how to pronounce Wilhite's magnum opus, he settled the debate in a 2013 interview with the NYT. "The Oxford English Dictionary accepts both pronunciations. They are wrong. It is a soft 'G,' pronounced 'jif.' End of story."

Neal Freyman, Max Knoblauch, Matty Merritt

MARKETS

Nasdaq

13,922.60

S&P

4,456.24

Dow

34,358.50

10-Year

2.295%

Bitcoin

$42,400.16

Oil

$115.75

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks reversed their gains from Tuesday in conjunction with another jump in oil prices and other commodities. The Russian stock market will hold a soft opening today, nearly a month after it closed.
  • Ukraine: The US formally declared that Russian forces committed war crimes in Ukraine based on a "careful review" of sources. And ahead of NATO's big summit today, the alliance announced that it will significantly fortify its troop presence on the eastern part of its flank.

AGRICULTURE

We need to talk about fertilizer

A tractor in a barren field Francis Scialabba

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Tuesday that the war in Ukraine could "spiral into a global hunger crisis," and one of the main causes might be a bit surprising: soaring fertilizer prices.

Industrial-scale crops require a little more love than your window-sill succulents; farmers across the globe use fertilizers to give crops necessary nutrients and boost yields.

You probably know what's coming next: Russia is the largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers in the world but, due to Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, shipments have been disrupted, supplies have dried up, and prices have soared.

  • Fertilizer prices jumped 10% last week, and 40% from the previous month, according to the Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index.

The domino effect

In our globalized world, destabilization in one region can lead to devastating consequences for another. Consider how lower supplies of Russian fertilizer could impact Chinese food production, per the NYT:

  • Russia sells a chunk of its fertilizer to Brazil, an agricultural giant and the world's biggest fertilizer importer.
  • Brazilian farmers use Russian fertilizer to grow crops such as soybeans. (In fact, Brazil's the No. 1 producer of soybeans.)
  • Brazil sells the majority of its soybeans to China, which uses those soybeans to feed its livestock.

The TL;DR: Less Russian fertilizer → fewer Brazilian soybeans → smaller Chinese livestock → higher Chinese meat prices

Soybeans are just one of many key crops—including corn, wheat, and rice—that could be disrupted by spiking fertilizer prices. Central American coffee producers tell Bloomberg they're facing a "mega emergency" on account of fertilizer costs: One Costa Rican company uses 1,400 tons of fertilizer to make about 40,000 bags of coffee annually.

Big picture: The price of food globally was already nearing record highs due to Covid-related supply chain disruptions, gnarly weather, and spiking energy prices. The war in Ukraine is only compounding those problems. "We are going to have a food crisis. It's a question of how large," one European fertilizer CEO told the WSJ.—NF

        

WORLD

Tour de headlines

Madeleine Albright Wally Mcnamee/Getty Images

RIP Madeleine Albright. The first female US Secretary of State died of cancer at 84, her family said yesterday. Albright, a refugee from Czechoslovakia, was selected by President Clinton to be the country's top diplomat in 1996, and served in the role until his presidency ended. She was awarded the US' top civilian honor, the Medal of Freedom, in 2012 by President Obama.

Wall Street bonus bonanza. Writing newsletters seemed fun and all…until we read that the average bonus paid to employees in the NY securities industry jumped 20% to $257,500 last year, according to the state comptroller. It's a big win for the Equinox vending machine and New York's tax coffers: Securities industries jobs account for 18% of state tax collections while making up only 5% of all private sector employment.

Gas relief for Californians? Gov. Gavin Newsom released a proposal that includes sending a $400 tax refund to Californians for each registered vehicle, setting up a debate with lawmakers who have announced competing proposals to help out residents facing soaring fuel prices. California gas prices are averaging $5.88/gallon, a record for the state and ~$2 more than a year ago.

        

INTERNATIONAL

China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735: What we know

Rescuers search for flight 5735's black boxes at the crash site. Rescuers search for flight 5735's black boxes at the crash site. Zhou Hua/Xinhua via Getty Images

Officials are still searching for answers after a China Eastern Airlines flight with 132 people on board crashed in a mountainous area in southern China. No survivors have been found.

Here's what we know so far: The plane was a Boeing 737-800 that had flown for around seven years. Unlike Boeing's 737 Max, which was grounded globally for about 20 months after two fatal crashes, the 737-800 is part of a series considered to be some of the world's safest aircraft, with a crash rate of ~0.07 crashes per million flights.

  • The plane was at a cruising altitude of 29,000 feet when it suddenly nosedived—losing about 26,000 feet in one and a half minutes.
  • The steep descent was interrupted by a brief climb, according to data from Flightradar24. After a few seconds, the plane began to descend again.
  • The plummet occurred around when the plane would have begun its initial descent.

Aviation experts are baffled, given just how rare certain aspects of the crash are. According to Boeing, just 13% of fatal airplane accidents occur during the cruising stage and only 3% happen during initial descent. And the 737-800 is designed so that it won't dive at steep angles, barring highly unusual malfunctions or intense effort by a pilot.

It's going to take a while to sort out. Crashes are never caused by just one thing, experts say. A damaged black box flight recorder was recovered from the crash site, but the process of analyzing plane crashes can take months, or even years to complete.—MK

        

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SOCIAL MEDIA

Instagram puts things back in order

New Insta home screen with drop down options to view following and favorites view. Instagram

Instagram is going where Christopher Nolan has never gone before: chronological. Six years after it dropped a chronological feed, the social platform introduced two new modes yesterday that allow users to view a time-oriented feed in addition to the algorithmically sorted feed.

Instagram said users can now toggle between "Following" mode, which only shows posts from accounts they follow in reverse chronological order, and "Favorites" mode, a secret feed of up to 50 accounts users can select manually. You can switch these views by clicking the drop down caret next to the Instagram logo.

  • But every time you close the app and open it again, you'll be pushed back to the standard Home feed full of the juice influencers that Insta's algorithm thinks you want to see. Additionally, you can only view Stories in the Home feed.

Big picture: Insta has been teasing this feature since last year. It comes as lawmakers have doubled down on grilling social media companies about the role their algorithms play in keeping impressionable teens glued to their apps.—MM

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Auckland skyline James D. Morgan/Getty Images

Stat: This week, Air New Zealand started selling tickets for the first nonstop flight between Auckland and JFK. The flight from NZ → NYC takes more than 16 hours, but because of science, you'll technically land a mere 15 minutes after you take off. Just in time for second breakfast.

Quote: "I don't have the physical drive, the emotional want, and everything it takes to challenge yourself at the very top of the level anymore, and I just know that I am spent. I just know physically, I have nothing more to give. That, for me, is success."

World No. 1 women's tennis player Ashleigh Barty announced her surprise retirement from the sport at the age of 25 on Wednesday. She's going out on top, having dominated the Australian Open in January and winning Wimbledon last year.

Read: I was going to quit playing Scrabble competitively. Then something utterly nuts happened. (Slate)

Ask: We polled readers yesterday on whether the government should forgive student loan debt. 70k votes later…46% said no, 28% said some, and 26% said yes—all of it.

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Moderna said its Covid-19 vaccine worked safely for children aged 6 months to 5 years. It'll apply for authorization in the US and Europe in the coming weeks.
  • Idaho Gov. Brad Little signed a Texas-style abortion law that would ban abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. It's expected to be challenged in court.
  • Nestle pulled popular brands including KitKat and Nesquik from Russia. The food giant had come under fire from Ukrainian officials for helping fund Putin's war machine.
  • Kyrie Irving will be allowed to play for the Brooklyn Nets in New York City again. Mayor Eric Adams is set to reverse a vaccine mandate for athletes and performers at NYC venues today, Politico reported.

FROM THE CREW

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BREW'S BETS

Good shipping content: 1) Why global supply chains may never be the same 2) What the ship? and 3) Why Tracy's furniture is stuck

Writing tips: An academic shares eight tips for historical writing, but the advice applies to anyone trying to become a better writer.

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GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew Mini: You've never seen a crossword like today's Mini. Play it here.

Three headlines and a lie: Music festival edition

In honor of Lollapalooza's jam-packed lineup reveal this week, we'll give you three real musical acts performing at this year's festival, and one that's faker than an altcoin endorsed by a celebrity. Can you guess the odd one out?

  1. Hollow Manhattan Milk
  2. Grabbitz
  3. Coco & Clair Clair
  4. Rolling Blackouts Coastal Fever

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ANSWER

Hollow Manhattan Milk is not a real band. It feels like it could exist in the Neutral Milk Hotel-verse though. Here's the full Lolla lineup.

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, and Max Knoblauch

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