| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | BLINKEN'S BRAIN — On this week's Playbook Deep Dive podcast, Ryan visits the seventh floor of the State Department and sits down with DEREK CHOLLET to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. Outside of foreign policy circles, Chollet is not well known. His title is unusual: "counselor of the U.S. Department of State." He said that his wife and kids thought "it was completely made up." But you get a sense of his influence when you wander through the secretary of State's suite of offices: Chollet sits a few yards away from ANTONY BLINKEN. He is essentially the secretary's closest adviser. Ryan and Chollet discuss the recent history of Democratic foreign policy, they get into the weeds on the Biden administration's toughest decisions on the Ukraine crisis, and Chollet explains why much of his job "is to just worry about things." One big concern now is how Russia might still retaliate against the U.S. "It's war, and the enemy gets a vote," Chollet said. Listen and subscribe here
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| IN THE SUBURBS — We have long been avid readers of the deep-dive political memos written by DOUG SOSNIK, a former senior adviser to then-President BILL CLINTON. Sosnik's latest is a very thorough 14-page dissection of the new politics of America's suburbs. It is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the midterms in 2022 and presidential politics in 2024. Race, income and education have long been the three most important factors in figuring out the partisan leanings of a district or state. But increasingly, population density is all you really need to know. By the end of the DONALD TRUMP years, rural America was deep red and big cities were bright blue. "The suburbs," Sosnik writes, "are the last remaining competitive areas left in the country." A lot of conventional wisdom about the politics of American suburbs is wrong. Sosnik explodes some cliches in his rundown of the general political characteristics of the suburbs. Here, he writes, is the reality:
- Suburbs "are more economically and demographically diverse than inner cities."
- Suburbs have "a more complicated mix of racial backgrounds, languages, and countries of origin" than inner cities.
- The suburbs have not swung decisively toward the Democrats, despite their successes there in 2018 and 2020.
- What suburban voters dislike about the Dems: "the cultural wars and identity politics of the Democratic Party. During a time of rising crime, they do not support defunding the police. And they are not looking for an expansive or intrusive federal government."
- What suburban voters dislike about the GOP: Trumpian conspiracy theories about 2020, defenses of the Jan. 6 insurrection and "the intolerance and out-of-the-mainstream views on social issues like abortion and guns promoted by today's Trump-dominated Republican Party."
The stakes for understanding all of this are hugely consequential. "The party that is able to win the hearts and minds of suburban voters will control political power in our country," Sosnik argues. "At the moment, neither political party appears to even recognize this opportunity, let alone have the willingness to seize it." FIGHTING IN A SUBURBAN WAR — The outcomes of the House, Senate and White House are now all decided by the suburban vote. But what exactly is a suburb? Sosnik uses six subgroups created by Bloomberg CityLab based on population density. The GOP owns "pure rural" and "rural suburban" areas. Dems own "urban" and "urban suburban" locations. The battleground is in the two middle groups: "dense inner suburbs," which lean toward the Democrats, and "sparser outer suburbs," which lean toward the Republicans. The purest political battlegrounds in America are found in areas with about 800 people per square mile. YOUR PART OF TOWN AGAINST MINE — Looking ahead to 2022, Sosnik has a nice breakdown of the pivotal suburban counties that will likely determine the outcome in the six Senate battleground states:
- Arizona: Maricopa County.
- Georgia: It's more complicated here. JOE BIDEN's 2020 victory came from the outer Atlanta suburbs, while RAPHAEL WARNOCK's and JON OSSOFF's 2021 runoff wins were aided more by boosts in turnout in the inner suburbs.
- Nevada: Clark County, where Sosnik notes a recent poll has Biden's approval at 41%.
- North Carolina: This is a battle of Dem-leaning inner suburbs versus GOP-leaning exurbs, the latter of which drove Trump's 2-point victory in 2020.
- Pennsylvania: Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester Counties — all suburbs of Philadelphia.
- Wisconsin: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties — all suburbs of Milwaukee.
Over in the House, Sosnik notes the big redistricting story is that the GOP used to grab suburban voters to beef up incumbent districts while now they steal from patches of reliable rural areas instead, usually to fortify suburban districts. The end result of redistricting this year will be that the next decade of control for the House will be fought in a historically low number of competitive districts that will be based in the suburbs. Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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See how we're working to help you connect safely. | | | POTUS IN EUROPE — In Brussels on Thursday, Biden "called for expelling Russia from the G-20 group of the world's largest economies, suggested Ukraine join the meetings if that cannot happen and pledged to respond in kind if [Russian President] VLADIMIR PUTIN uses chemical weapons in the assault on his neighbor," Christopher Cadelago, Jonathan Lemire and Samuel Benson report. "Biden's trip was largely an effort to lean on his familiarity with world leaders and long career in foreign affairs to hold the West together with a unified ratcheting up of pressure on Moscow and economic and military help for Ukraine." Further reading:
TALK OF THIS TOWN — As Sen. TED CRUZ's (R-Texas) questioning of KETANJI BROWN JACKSON homed in on the offerings of the library at Georgetown Day School, where Jackson is both a parent and a board member, the chatter in Washington's posh circles grew to a deafening din. "Washington is the sort of place where, in a certain sector of society, people care about private schools: not what they do, but what they mean," writes POLITICO Magazine's Michael Schaffer . "What does it say about you if you went to (Episcopalian, all-boys) St. Albans? Who are you if you choose to send a child to (suburban, preppy) Potomac? This kind of thinking may seem objectively absurd: Maybe you're just someone who liked the commute, or got a good financial aid package, or had a kid who wanted to go to the same school as their best friend. Still, merely by living in this local universe, people tend to acquire a rough understanding of the semiotics of the various places where power-class members educate their kids. This week, that folk knowledge was, for once, professionally useful." Read on for his translation of this insular, DMV-area patois for, well, the rest of us
| | | |   | | | BIDEN'S FRIDAY (all times Eastern): Earlier today, the president held a bilateral meeting with European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN. Still to come: — 6:55 a.m.: Biden will depart Brussels en route to Rzeszów, Poland, where he is scheduled to arrive at 9:15 a.m. and will be greeted by Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA. — 9:55 a.m.: Biden will receive a briefing on the humanitarian response in Ukraine. — 10:50 a.m.: Biden will meet with service members from the 82nd Airborne Division. — 12:45 p.m.: The president will depart Rzeszów en route to Warsaw, where he is scheduled to arrive at 1:40 p.m. Principal deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Rzeszów. VP KAMALA HARRIS' FRIDAY — The VP will meet with the National Hispanic Caucus of State Legislators at 3 p.m. THE SENATE and THE HOUSE are out.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and others arrive for an EU summit roundtable meeting in Brussels on Thursday. | Olivier Matthys/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | ALL POLITICS BOMBSHELL — WaPo's Bob Woodward and CBS' Robert Costa landed an explosive story that dominated D.C. chatter Thursday night: a series of text messages revealing that conservative activist VIRGINIA "GINNI" THOMAS, the wife of Justice CLARENCE THOMAS, "repeatedly pressed White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS to pursue unrelenting efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election … in the critical weeks following the vote." What the text messages reveal: "The messages, which do not directly reference Justice Thomas or the Supreme Court, show for the first time how Ginni Thomas used her access to Trump's inner circle to promote and seek to guide the president's strategy to overturn the election results — and how receptive and grateful Meadows said he was to receive her advice. Among Thomas's stated goals in the messages was for lawyer SIDNEY POWELL, who promoted incendiary and unsupported claims about the election, to be 'the lead and the face' of Trump's legal team." Among the highlights from the article:
- Thomas suggested Biden, his allies and journalists at mainstream outlets be sent to Gitmo: "In the Nov. 5 message to Meadows, Thomas went on to quote a passage that had circulated on right-wing websites: 'Biden crime family & ballot fraud co-conspirators (elected officials, bureaucrats, social media censorship mongers, fake stream media reporters, etc) are being arrested & detained for ballot fraud right now & over coming days, & will be living in barges off GITMO to face military tribunals for sedition.'"
- She trafficked in far-right conspiracy theory videos: "She sent him a link to a YouTube video labeled 'TRUMP STING w CIA Director STEVE PIECZENIK, The Biggest Election Story in History, QFS-BLOCKCHAIN.' Pieczenik, a former State Department official, is a far-right commentator who has falsely claimed that the 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., was a 'false-flag' operation to push a gun-control agenda. … Thomas wrote to Meadows, 'I hope this is true; never heard anything like this before, or even a hint of it. Possible???'"
- She promoted baseless and debunked claims of electoral fraud: "On Nov. 19 … Thomas continued to bolster Powell's standing in a text to Meadows. 'Mark (don't want to wake you)… ' Thomas wrote. 'Sounds like Sidney and her team are getting inundated with evidence of fraud. Make a plan. Release the Kraken and save us from the left taking America down.'"
- She expressed disgust with MIKE PENCE after Jan. 6: "The committee received one additional message sent by Thomas to Meadows, on Jan. 10, four days after the 'Stop the Steal' rally Thomas said she attended and the deadly attack on the Capitol. … 'We are living through what feels like the end of America,' Thomas wrote to Meadows. 'Most of us are disgusted with the VP and are in listening mode to see where to fight with our teams.'"
JUDICIARY SQUARE HOW HARD SHOULD THE GOP FIGHT JACKSON? — The question is roiling Senate Republicans now that Jackson's confirmation hearings are over. Our Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine have the readout: — What they're not going to do: "GOP senators say they will not support a boycott of Jackson's committee vote, a strategy that helped scuttle the nomination of Biden's Federal Reserve nominee SARAH BLOOM RASKIN. Because the Senate is tied and the standing rules of the Senate require a majority of committee members to attend a panel vote, a boycott would effectively stifle Jackson's nomination from moving forward." — What might happen instead: "As an April 4 committee vote looms, it's entirely possible that the evenly split panel deadlocks on her nomination, forcing Democrats to hold extra votes on the Senate floor. … Democratic leadership will need to file a discharge petition, which only delays the process by four hours, if the committee deadlocks. … Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER could then take procedural steps on April 5 that would set Jackson for a final confirmation vote by the end of that week." Related reading: "News Analysis: The Respectful Supreme Court Hearing That Wasn't," by NYT's Carl Hulse. On the week that was: "In the end, the allure of media attention coupled with the strong gravitational pull of the right fringe of their party proved too much for many Republicans to resist." Looking forward: "Where this leaves the state of Supreme Court reviews is hard to know. The Jackson hearing seemed to open a new frontier in vilification by focusing so heavily on her sentencing history, meaning any sentences handed down by future nominees will now become fodder for attack."
| | | |   | | | CONGRESS FORTENBERRY GUILTY — "A federal jury on Thursday found Rep. JEFF FORTENBERRY (R-Neb.) guilty of three felonies for lying to and misleading the FBI about his knowledge of campaign donations made with funds from a foreign national," report Josh Gerstein and Myah Ward. The jury took less than three hours to deliberate. "Fortenberry faces a possible prison sentence of up to five years on each count, as well as fines." — Via the Omaha World-Herald: Fortenberry "does not have to give up his congressional seat. Federal law requires members of Congress to give up their seats only for crimes that are tied to treason." HOUSE GOP AGENDA COMES INTO FOCUS … ALMOST — House Republicans are gathering for a retreat at Florida's Ponte Vedra Beach with one broad goal: "readying an agenda that their members can all get behind if, or perhaps when, they retake the majority this fall," report Sarah Ferris and Olivia Beavers. But what exactly is in that agenda? — Where there's consensus within the GOP: "They're planning bills on policies like inflation, border security and energy independence — a 'grand plan,' in the words of Rep. MIKE JOHNSON (R-La.), that they hope will seal their win against Democrats this fall." — Where they're still sorting it out: "[M]any Republicans described the singular focus of the retreat as figuring out which policy areas, including energy prices, health care, China, border security and reining in big tech companies, have enough agreement within the conference to actually turn into bill text." An angle we'll be watching: "With little appetite for two years of obstruction, House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY and his team will need to make sure their right flank stays in array. That also means working with President Joe Biden — not just on the agenda Republicans are preparing for themselves, but on the bare minimum of fulfilling Congress' annual chores, like funding the government or approving Pentagon policy bills. "'We're going to pass legislation out of the House and send as much as we can to President Joe Biden's desk. And we hope that he will work with us,' House GOP Conference Chair Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) said when asked whether the conference was prepared to work with Biden." — BUT, BUT, BUT: How they would actually go about working with Biden is unclear. There are two big variables: (1) what Trump will say "as he continues to try to exert his influence over the party," and (2) the reality that some Republicans, "particularly in the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, will be loath to support anything on the floor that could be seen as boosting Biden ahead of the 2024 presidential election." Another newsy bit from the retreat: McCarthy announced he "won't be wading into any other primaries to oust incumbents in his own party, after taking the unprecedented step of endorsing Rep. LIZ CHENEY's primary opponent last month," CNN's Melanie Zanona reports. "This is a very special case," McCarthy said. THE PANDEMIC PULSE CHECK ON MASKS — "POLITICO-Harvard poll: 40 percent of parents believe masks at school harmed their kids," by Dan Goldberg: "'Even if I'm in a Democratic state or district, I'd pay attention because there are a substantial number of independent parents who think the policy is hurting their children,' said ROBERT BLENDON, a professor of health policy and political analysis, emeritus, at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. 'If you say something hurts my children, you're going to feel strongly about it. … Anything that has an impact on your family has a disproportionate impact on how you think of things.'" JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH COMMITTEE WANTS SCAVINO AND NAVARRO PROSECUTED — The House select committee on Jan. 6 is "seeking criminal prosecution for two of Trump's top White House aides DAN SCAVINO JR. and PETER NAVARRO, saying they illegally defied subpoenas," our Kyle Cheney, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Nicholas Wu report. "The panel announced Thursday that it will commence contempt proceedings Monday." TRUMP CARDS BECAUSE THE 2016 CAMPAIGN WILL NEVER END — "Former President Donald Trump filed a federal lawsuit against HILLARY CLINTON, the DNC and 26 other people and entities that he claims conspired to undermine his 2016 campaign by falsely tying him to Russia," CNN's Marshall Cohen and Katelyn Polantz report. The 108-page lawsuit is rife with "factual inaccuracies and some of the same grandiose or exaggerated false claims that Trump has made dozens of times," largely rehashing "grievances that he has complained about for years. It claims Democrats and government officials perpetrated a grab bag of offenses, from a racketeering conspiracy to a malicious prosecution, computer fraud and theft of secret internet data." PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION 'TIS THE SEASON — After a two-year, pandemic-inspired hiatus, the White House Easter Egg Roll is back on and scheduled for April 18, per WaPo's Jada Yuan. Opening today at 10 a.m.: a free online lottery for tickets. TV TONIGHT — PBS' "Washington Week": Peter Baker, Laura Jarrett, Josh Lederman and Vivian Salama. SUNDAY SO FAR … Gray TV "Full Court Press": Oleksandra Matviychuk … Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.). FOX "Fox News Sunday," guest-anchored by John Roberts: Rep Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). Panel: Karl Rove, Gillian Turner, Chad Pergram and Marie Harf. CBS "Face the Nation": Marie Yovanovitch … Will Hurd … Bob Costa. CNN "Inside Politics": retired Brig. Gen. Steven Anderson. Panel: Jonathan Martin, Asma Khalid and Manu Raju. Panel: Robin Wright and Jill Dougherty. ABC "This Week": Panel: Donna Brazile, Jeffrey Goldberg, Vivian Salama and Ramesh Ponnuru. NBC "Meet the Press": Panel: Yamiche Alcindor, Stephen Hayes, Jeh Johnson and Susan Page.
| | | | DON'T MISS POLITICO'S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Sarah Palin suggested she might "throw her hat in the ring" for the Alaska House seat left open by the death of Don Young because she's sick of the "vanilla milquetoast namby-pamby wussy pussy stuff" in Congress. The website for one of the law firms representing Donald Trump in his RICO suit against Hillary Clinton (and others) has the venerable-sounding url of legalbrains.com. (h/t Matthew Gertz) Connie Schultz contrasted reports aboutGinni Thomas' text messages with an interaction she had with John Roberts' wife, Jane Sullivan Roberts: "[She] sat next to me in the Senate gallery for a portion of Trump's first impeachment trial. When I asked for her impression of the historic event, she said it would be inappropriate for her to comment." TMZ staked out Cafe Milano to ask Stephen Breyer about Clarence Thomas' hospitalization. Sarahbeth Manney, the NYT photography fellow who took a viral shot at Ketanji Brown Jackson's confirmation hearing, had an interview with Teen Vogue about the pic. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the DSCC's "Women on the Hill Dinner" with chiefs of staff at the Intercontinental at the Wharf on Thursday night: Veronica Duron, Aquila Powell, Emily Katz, Kathleen Connery Dawe and Tricia Russel. TRANSITIONS — Nahigian Strategies has added George O'Connor as VP and Chris Krepich as director of comms. O'Connor most recently was at the Plastics Industry Association, and is a DOT and Capitol Hill alum. Krepich most recently was comms director for Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) and the GOP Doctors Caucus, and is a Jim Sensenbrenner, Keith Rothfus and Sean Duffy alum. … Jeanne Arnold is joining the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts as VP of industry comms. She previously was director of media relations at the Investment Company Institute. BIRTHWEEK (was Thursday): Elise Sidamon-Eristoff HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Bari Weiss … Sofia Kinzinger … Jordan Montoya of first lady Jill Biden's office … Michael Ortiz of Sequoia Capital Partners … Liz Timmons of the Senate Veterans' Affairs Democrats … Joel Wanger of the Democratic Majority for Israel … AP's Steven Sloan … Fox News' Nick Kalman … CAP's Daniella Gibbs Léger … Katey McCutcheon of Firehouse Strategies … Raben Group's Pete Weber … Marneé Banks … Rachael Baitel … Emily Schillinger of the American Investment Council … Sarah Badawi … Grant Dubler of Sen. Jacky Rosen's (D-Nev.) office … Lauren Aronson of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas … Amazon's Andrew Okuyiga … Meta's Stina Skewes-Cox Trainor … Patrick Bailey … Anthony Garrett … Lauryl Dodson Jackson … Sarah Eyman … Kristin Nicholson … Christopher Hale (33) … Joe Chelak … Aaron David Miller … Gene Shalit ... Gloria Steinem … Carolyn Goodman … Arthur Allen … Israeli PM Naftali Bennett Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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