Wednesday, July 14, 2021

😳Inflation Smashes Expectations—Is It Transitory Yet?😳

Good morning. The narrative of the past few months has been that rising inflation rates are...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The narrative of the past few months has been that rising inflation rates are transitory, a fancy central-banker's word for temporary in nature. Well, if it's temporary, it's not over yet. The June numbers crept higher than the May numbers.

Sure, there are some signs of relief. Lumber prices have now unwound their 2021 gains. They're still higher than a year ago, but well off their highs. Ditto with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. And speculation in some parts of the stock market has left a number of trades well off of their highs, even as the overall market trends higher. Transitory or not, investors are always wise to find companies that can benefit from higher inflation rates, and pass on those costs to their consumers the best.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 34,889.05 -0.31%
S&P 4,369.32 -0.35%
NASDAQ 14,677.65 -0.38%
*As of market close
Stocks trended lower on Tuesday, coming off of all-time highs on persistent inflation fears.
Oil rallied 1.6 percent, closing at $75.31 per barrel.
Gold traded flat, last going for $1,807 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies generally moved lower, with Bitcoin at $32,317 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
This Return-to-Normal Trend Points to Further Big Profits

The entertainment industry has been hit hard thanks to the pandemic. While many areas are resuming in-person forms of entertainment once again, the best gauge for how the industry is faring is by looking at box office receipts.

While movies have declined somewhat in the past few years thanks to video games and streaming, it's starting to show signs of a return to a pre-pandemic life.

» FULL STORY


Insider Trading Report: TPG Pace Beneficial Finance Group (TPGY)
Light Street Capital, a major owner of TPG Pace Beneficial Finance Group (TPGY), has added an additional 251,907 shares. The total cost to acquire those shares came to just under $3.3 million.

This marks the first insider buy since last March, from a different fund manager that's a major holder of shares. Overall, these two funds have been the only insiders to make any activity, and they've exclusively bought more shares.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: The Trade Desk (TTD)
Shares of digital advertising firm The Trade Desk (TTD) have started moving higher in recent weeks after dropping and bottoming out in early May. One trader sees the potential for shares to head higher from here.

That's based on the August $75 calls. Over 61,475 contracts traded against an open interest of 2,050, for a 30-fold rise in volume. The buyer of the calls paid about $7.50 to make the trade, which expires in 37 days.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Inflation Hits 13-Year High

CPI rose 0.9 percent in June, the largest one-month increase in 13 years. Inflation has now hit 5.4 percent over the past year, also the biggest jump in 13 years. The June numbers were heavily impacted by higher gas prices, which were significantly higher than one year ago. Food prices were also up 2.4 percent over the past year.
Natural Gas Prices Boom

A combination of factors is leading to record-high prices for natural gas in some markets. The factors include demand from China, a heat wave in the Northwestern US, and a drought in Brazil. While natural gas can be piped over land, it needs to be liquefied for transport across oceans, making the market far more fragmented.
Bearish Pandemic Bets Unwound

A recent survey from fund managers show that bearish bets against non-market events like the pandemic have eased. That's put managers back on a pre-pandemic course, preferring value over growth stocks, and large-cap stocks over small-caps in general.
FCC Finalizes Plan to Divest Chinese Tech

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has finalized a $1.9 billion plan to subsidize costs for telecom companies to replace equipment from Huawei or ZTE with equipment from other providers. The US government still considers the hardware from China as a national security risk.
Startup Market Looks as Strong as Ever

Despite concerns over inflation or market valuations in general, venture capital deals look stronger than ever, following a strong second quarter. With companies both seeking private funding or going public set to continue at a record pace, these faster-growing tech companies are likely to continue to benefit the overall move higher in the stock market.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
JD 4.578%
NTES 2.974%
TDY 2.425%
BIDU 2.328%
PEP 2.308%
BOTTOM
CAG 5.427%
HPE 4.907%
BEN 4.895%
NCLH 4.362%
BA 4.234%

Quote of the Day
High expectations for earnings and each companies' forward guidance will push markets higher or disappointment may create a small pullback in equity markets. Eyes will be on the major banks to set the tone for the next few weeks of earnings.
- Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth, on the two major ways that earnings season can play out. Investors should expect most companies to beat earnings, which is a typical trend, but also expect a few individual companies to see some surprising losses.

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