Friday, April 16, 2021

👀 The Stimulus Trap is Set

Good morning. Retail sales came in with a blowout number, sending stocks to all-time highs and..
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Retail sales came in with a blowout number, sending stocks to all-time highs and reversing a pre-market drop. The reason is thanks to the last round of stimulus payments. While earlier rounds made their way into the stock market, Bitcoin, or paying down a credit card, it's clear from the retail numbers that many are spending.

Governments and central banks are also likely noticing the impact as well. If inflation numbers don't materially rise and stay higher, the lesson may be learned that money can be created seemingly infinitely, as long as it's designed to be spent. Like anything that sounds too good to be true, there will eventually be consequences for massive spending… but so far, that day of reckoning remains far in the future.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 34,036.05 +0.90%
S&P 4,170.45 +1.11%
NASDAQ 14,038.76 +1.31%
*As of market close
Stocks moved higher on Thursday, with all three indices showing strong gains.
Oil rose 0.3 percent, to $63.36 per barrel.
Gold rallied 1.6 percent, at $1,765 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies moved higher, with Bitcoin last at $63,597.

Today's TOP TIPS
Bank Earnings Justify Higher Prices for Mega-Firms
A number of big banks reported earnings earlier in the week. All of them beat expectations, although all of the big banks gave Wall Street traders a few cautious items to think about as well. A recovering economy largely helped to reduce reserves, and earnings and revenue were up overall.

Of the big banks, Wells Fargo (WFC) looks the most interesting here. The company posted earnings of $1.05 per share, well above estimates of $0.71 per share.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI)
MFN Partners, a holder with a director stake at PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI), recently bought 94,106 shares. The buy increased the fund's holding by less than 10 percent, but came to a total purchase price of just over $6 million.

The fund made repeat buys back in March, and shares are down high double-digits since then. Overall, insiders tend to be bigger sellers than buyers. Overall, insiders own over 44 percent of shares, so the level of insider selling isn't a massive issue.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Snapchat (SNAP)
Shares of social media firm Snapchat (SNAP) peaked in February before trending down. In the past week, they've started moving up again. At least one trader sees a push to new all-time highs.

That's based on the May $62 calls. With shares at $62.01, they're the at-the-money trade. With 28 days until expiration, over 4,680 contracts traded against a prior open interest of 136, for a 34-fold rise in volume.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
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Most people dread Mondays because it signals the end of the weekend… And the beginning of the grueling week to come. But Monday is Tom Busby's favorite trading day of the week. . That's because his "Hidden Breakout" trade signals every Monday at exactly 12:01PM…

Tom explains how his Hidden Breakout Trade works HERE!

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Spending Jumps 9.8 Percent

Retail spending jumped nearly 10 percent thanks to the latest round of government stimulus hitting bank accounts. Warmer weather and fewer economic restrictions also played a role. The latest round of stimulus was designed for lower-income households, explaining why that money first went to spending rather than saving or investing. Some view the jump in sales as temporary, while others see a potential for further gains on the economy continuing to reopen.
Lumber Soars on Housing Demand, Infrastructure Potential

A commodity boom is underway. Strong demand for single-family housing has led to a massive jump in lumber prices. Lumber has also been impacted by supply chain issues such as factory shutdowns in the past year. Now, with a proposed $2.3 trillion infrastructure bill, steel prices are also moving higher as proposals include repairing or replacing bridges, airports, rail lines and the like.
Richard Branson Sells More Virgin Galactic

One of the most popular retail trading names has been space tourism company Virgin Galactic (SPCE). But while traders have liked the stock, company insiders haven't. Chairman Chamath Palihapitiya sold off some of his stake last month. Now he's joined by company founder Richard Branson. The move comes after shares have already dropped by more than 60 percent from their February highs, even as the rest of the market is still near all-time highs.
Delta Air Lines Posts Loss, But Cash Burn Slows

Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported a $2.3 billion loss in the first quarter of the year. However, the airline managed to shift from losing an average of $11 million per day to seeing positive cash flow of $4 million per day. The shift has occurred a year into the pandemic, as air traffic has reached its highest level since March 2020. Despite the big quarterly loss, the company sees a huge rise in bookings as a sign that things have turned the corner.
Polestar Raises $550 Million

Polestar, an electric vehicle company owned by Volvo Car Group, just raised its first external funds. Investors including SK Inc. provided the company with $550 million, to develop its ongoing EV programs. The company indicates that additional funds may be raised in the future. The funds will be used for product development and accelerating technological development.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
AMD 5.678%
NVDA 5.631%
XLNX 5.25%
NEM 4.737%
FCX 4.186%
BOTTOM
TFC 4.138%
ENPH 4.029%
MGM 3.805%
NCLH 3.184%
SCHW 2.877%

Quote of the Day
What happened is, the consumer has so much money, they're paying down their credit card loans, which is good. Their balance sheet is in excellent, outstanding shape – coiled, ready to go and they're starting to spend money. Consumers have $2 trillion in more cash in their checking accounts than they had before Covid.
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on why consumers have ample liquidity, and are likely to keep the economy strong in the post-Covid lockdown era.

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