| | | | | |  | | By John F. Harris | Presented by Facebook | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Why, yes, thank you, and nice of you to say. Happy New Year to you as well! No, no — nothing special. We got pretty good carryout from the Bombay Club, then went to bed well before midnight because I had to be up early for my stint as guest author of Playbook. It's your POLITICO founding editor here, part of a roster invited to have some fun with this space in the transition to a new Playbook team that will be taking the helm with the inauguration of Joe Biden 19 days from now. Bear with me as I try to accommodate the Playbook format and decide which parts are supposed to be in bold. On CNN's Times Square special Thursday night, co-host Andy Cohen described 2020 as a "fecal year." Kind of gross but we sure know what he means. A new year, and soon a new administration, is starting with a familiar paradox. Nothing is more characteristic of the American character than optimism, and the conviction that things are looking up at last. Yet much of the past year, or past four years, or, for that matter, past twenty years in the United States and around the world serves as warning that things could indeed get worse — more crazy, more dysfunctional, more violent, more sad. Editors invited me to start the year with my predictions for the 12 months ahead. Well, as reporters used to say in the old days of the Washington Post Style section: Assignment declined. POLITICO Magazine just the other day wrote about all the bogus predictions of 2020, and I am not going to audition for next year's edition. Perhaps we can tackle the challenge differently. Let's imagine we have a crystal ball that could tell us what we really want to know about Washington and national politics in the year ahead. What would we ask it? No need to squander a question by asking something that we will very soon know in any event, like the outcome of the Georgia special elections Tuesday, which will determine control of the U.S. Senate. The point is to ask questions that illuminate how we perceive the underlying power dynamics of 2021, even without knowing the answer. With help from colleagues and a bunch of old and new sources, here's a bunch of questions we would ask the crystal ball on what is forecast to be a cold and rainy New Year's Day. Can Biden fill the presidency? No, this isn't about filling West Wing and Cabinet jobs. It's about Biden filling his own job — projecting the aura of command that Americans associate with the presidency. At 78, he'll be 78 days older on his first day than Ronald Reagan was on his last. On many days on the campaign trail, his frail bearing and meandering sentences made him seem every day of his age. Since the election, he's typically been a crisper and more authoritative presence. Yet U.S. history has rarely presented a more vivid contrast between outsize challenges and a pedestrian leadership persona. Can Trump still be Trump come Jan. 21? The president's demagoguery with his baseless assertions of a stolen election, and his increasingly erratic behavior since the election, has put an old puzzle in a frightening new light: Does seemingly irrational behavior actually serve a rational purpose? I'm already on record with my hunch — not a prediction! — that Trump will fade faster than most people and probably even he assumes once he no longer occupies the White House. But this is the dominant question hovering over Republican politics. A subordinate question is whether his adult children have any real political sway of their own once dad is ex-president. Who runs the House? The obvious answer is still Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but with Democrats having such a tenuous margin of power the real answer may be lots of people, which is another way of saying no one. Pelosi, 80, has signaled this will be her final term leading the People's House. By the end of 2021, it should be more clear than it is today who among multiple Democrats, including Reps. Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn, Congressional Black Caucus Chair Karen Bass, fellow Californian Adam Schiff or Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark, of suburban Boston, is best positioned for post-Pelosi leadership. Who is the loudest Ivy League loudmouth? The competition to take the Trump mantle of alleged anti-establishment populist is dominated by young Republicans with uncommon skill of shimmying up the greasy pole of establishment success. Sen. Josh Hawley (Yale Law and Stanford undergrad), who turned 41 just Thursday, has jostled with 43-year-old Sen. Tom Cotton (Harvard undergrad and law) for prominence in flamboyant rhetoric and scab-picking ideological and cultural battles. Will Sen. Ted Cruz (Princeton and Harvard law), more seasoned after turning 50 on Dec. 20, cede the arena to these youngsters? Is this competition genuinely an effective way to establish post-Trump primacy in the GOP? | | | | A message from Facebook: It's time to update internet regulations
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Learn More | | | How gutsy is AOC really? Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has established abundantly that she doesn't fear her elders. Since the transition has indicated that Biden is willing to extend polite attention but not agenda-setting power to the left, do AOC and the allies she inspires have a strategy to exert real leverage on him, beyond just gripes to reporters? 2021 will also give clues to whether she is serious about the possibility of a primary challenge to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in 2022. Does the legislative deck get shuffled? An assumption of down-the-line partisanship remains a safe bet on most issues. But there are some — such as bringing the tech sector to heel, an increase in the minimum wage and possibly a big infrastructure measure — in which at least some Republicans will likely perceive incentives to work with Democrats and the new administration. What becomes of the Biden-Harris dynamic? Lyndon B. Johnson said he always felt like "a goddamn raven hovering over his shoulder" as vice president to JFK. There's plenty of potential for Kamala Harris to have a similarly complicated relationship with her boss, since there is widespread speculation that he won't seek a second term but she can't even whisper that she's hoping for or preparing for that decision. What happens to the right's Noise Machine? Radio host Rush Limbaugh, a dominant conservative voice for 30 years, told listeners in October that he never expected to still be alive by then, but that his stage 4 lung cancer is headed in "the wrong direction." Meanwhile, Trump is repaying Fox News for its ever-so-faint deviations from absolute devotion to him by denouncing the network, leading Newsmax to see an opportunity. Cumulatively, the year could bring the biggest shake-up in a generation in the rightwing media landscape. Does the economy have a cracked foundation? For all the disruption and loss of the coronavirus pandemic and widespread global shutdowns, the economy still is suffering but fundamentally intact. But is it like a building after an earthquake — still standing but with more profound structural weaknesses than meets the eye? What is Marco Rubio up to? There is low-volume chatter at high levels in Florida political circles that Rubio might not run for reelection to a third term in 2022, and that Ivanka Trump might try for the seat. How serious is this? I wouldn't go overboard with any wager. Has the 2020 racial reckoning really changed the balance of power in Washington? Biden is president, and Hillary Clinton is not, because minorities turned out in stronger numbers for him. Black and brown voters and their congressional representatives have an opportunity to go beyond their traditional status as "blocs" to be managed and to fundamentally drive the Democratic policy agenda. Diplomacy or confrontation in Iran and North Korea? There's widespread expectation that Trump's departure will jump-start diplomacy with these two dangerous nations, one an aspiring nuclear power and the other already in possession of bombs. The troubled history of both places suggests the refresh Biden wants will be much harder than he wishes. Does Trump's eviction from the White House take cultural issues off high boil? Trump's most consequential impact in four years was not in conventional Washington policymaking but in the broader society. Both #MeToo and Black Lives Matter, though not narrowly about Trump, were powerfully fueled by the anger and mobilizing energy he inspired from opponents. What aren't we ready for? Few people other than Bill Gates and a cadre of public health specialists were fretting about the possibility of a pandemic of viral respiratory disease on Jan. 1, 2020. No reason to suppose the future doesn't have more surprises in store, or that they will be pleasant ones. The most ominous candidate might be a widespread breakdown in cybersecurity, potentially shutting down routine life with the same brutal force that coronavirus has. Will we be OK? This capital, this country and this planet are sure due for an upgrade over last year. The most pressing questions for the crystal ball are: How well do the vaccines still in development work? At what date on the 2021 calendar, if ever, will we reach the point when 75 percent of Americans have been immunized? What will life feel like when the cloud finally lifts? Chime in: Send us your 2021 predictions — or questions for the crystal ball — and we'll share a selection of your answers soon. Email us at politicoplaybook@politico.com. Unfortunately, the Playbook crystal ball is merely a metaphorical device. But the next 365 days promise to be damn interesting. That's especially true of the next five or six. Here, via editor Mike Zapler, is the latest on how: THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE on Wednesday is shaping up like a trip to the dentist for Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL. Members of his conference spent New Year's Eve openly warring over the Electoral College mess Trump has foisted on them, with a hand from Hawley. A few developments to catch you up on: SEN. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.), in a late-night, 2,200-word Facebook post, unloaded on unnamed GOP lawmakers for what he called a "dangerous plot." He didn't name them, but it didn't take a sleuth to ID his targets: "Let's be clear what is happening here: We have a bunch of ambitious politicians who think there's a quick way to tap into the president's populist base without doing any real, long-term damage. But they're wrong – and this issue is bigger than anyone's personal ambitions. Adults don't point a loaded gun at the heart of legitimate self-government." SEN. PAT TOOMEY (R-Pa.), who recently announced he'll be hanging it up in 2022, was also none too pleased with the Missouri senator/potential (likely?) 2024 hopeful if Trump doesn't run. Not to mention McConnell himself. Alex Isenstadt with the deets: "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pressed Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley on a Thursday morning conference call to explain his plans to object to the Electoral College vote next week … But McConnell was met with silence. Hawley — unbeknownst to some on the call, which was attended by Senate Republicans — was not present." MEANWHILE, HAWLEY, who declared this week he's taking a stand on behalf of "millions of voters concerned about election integrity," also happens to be raising money off his announcement. THE ONLY LESS APPEALING SCENARIO for McConnell to commence the new session, we gather, would be a pair of losses in Georgia the night before, which would relegate him to minority leader that day. — "Pence: Gohmert's fight to overturn the 2020 election results is with Congress, not me," by Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: "Vice President Mike Pence has asked a federal judge to throw out a lawsuit brought against him by Republicans seeking to empower him to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election." LATEST IN GEORGIA — "Perdue to quarantine days before Georgia runoff after close Covid contact," by Steven Shepard: "[B]oth Perdue and his wife, Bonnie, tested negative for the virus on Thursday, 'but following his doctor's recommendations and in accordance with [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] guidelines, they will quarantine.' "Perdue is leaving the campaign trail with only five days until Election Day, when Georgia voters will decide the fate of both of the state's Senate seats, which will in turn determine which party controls the chamber after the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden. It's unknown whether or when Perdue will return to campaigning before the Tuesday runoff." Reminder: Trump is heading to Georgia on Monday for an election-eve rally for Perdue and Loeffler. Will the senator be able to make it? Meanwhile, these two aren't even running against each other: "Loeffler hits back at Ossoff over KKK attack," by Marc Caputo and James Arkin THIS IS FUN: It's the annual report from Hart Research Associates with public opinion findings counting down from 100 to 1. WHAT ABOUT THE BOY? HE SAW IT ALL! There must be plenty of people, perhaps born 10 years on either side of me (1963) who today have the song from The Who's rock opera "Tommy" in their heads: "Got a feeling '21 is gonna be a good year, especially if you and me see it in together … I had no reason to be over-optimistic, but somehow when you smiled I can brave bad weather." Warning: The song sounds sweet at first, but it really isn't. It's about a boy who ceases to function, except for his mystical genius at pinball, after witnessing his father murder his mother's lover. TWITTER EXCHANGE OF THE DAY: | 
| QUESTION FOR YANG: Did he adopt his position against circumcision before or after attending the brises? THE CORONAVIRUS CONTINUES TO RAGE … 19.97 million Americans have tested positive for the virus. … 346,000 have died of Covid-19. — TRUMP COVID TICK-TOCK: "'Covid, Covid, Covid': In Trump's Final Chapter, a Failure to Rise to the Moment," NYT: "As the gap between politics and science grew, the infighting that Mr. Trump had allowed to plague the administration's response from the beginning only intensified. Threats of firings worsened the leadership vacuum as key figures undercut each other and distanced themselves from responsibility. "The administration had some positive stories to tell. … But Mr. Trump's unwillingness to put aside his political self-centeredness as Americans died by the thousands each day or to embrace the steps necessary to deal with the crisis remains confounding even to some administration officials." YELLEN SPEAKEN — "Yellen Earned Millions in Speaking Fees After Leaving Fed, Disclosures Show," WSJ: "Janet Yellen, President-elect Joe Biden's pick for Treasury secretary, collected more than $7 million in speaking fees during more than 50 in-person and virtual engagements over the past two years … A separate ethics agreement outlined Ms. Yellen's plans to resign as a consultant to the Magellan Financial Group Ltd., an investment-fund manager based in Australia … "The agreement said Ms. Yellen would seek special authorization for one year when dealing with matters pertaining to Magellan, according to forms posted online by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics. The agreement outlines similar steps she would take for 16 additional financial firms or entities from which she collected speaking fees in the past year, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and hedge-fund firm Citadel LLC." BLINKEN CONSULTEN — "Biden's Pick for Secretary of State Took Up Consulting, Venture Capital During Trump Administration, Disclosures Show," WSJ: "WestExec Advisors LLC paid him $1.2 million, not including an expected payment of between $250,000 and $500,000 for 2020 … "Meanwhile, Avril Haines, Mr. Biden's selection for director of national intelligence, has an extensive résumé that includes consulting work with national-security data analysis company Palantir Technologies Inc. and WestExec Advisors … The bulk of her income comes from her position as a research scholar and lecturer at Columbia University, where she was paid a salary of $440,121 over two years." BREXIT IS HERE — "U.K. enters 'new chapter' outside European Union as Brexit transition period ends," CNN/London: "As the clocks struck midnight marking New Year's Day in Brussels and 11 p.m. Thursday in London, the United Kingdom finally cut its ties with the European Union, almost a year after its formal departure from the 27-nation bloc." THE HACK HIT LIST GROWS — "Microsoft says Russians hacked its network, viewing source code," WaPo: "Russian government hackers engaged in a sweeping series of breaches of government and private-sector networks have been able to penetrate deeper into Microsoft's systems than previously known, gaining access to potentially valuable source code, the tech giant said Thursday." | | | |   | | | TRUMP INC. — "Trump hotel looks to cash in on Biden inauguration," by Daniel Lippman: "[A]t least one part of Trump-world is tacitly acknowledging that there won't be a second Trump term, and is hoping to profit from Biden's inauguration: Trump's Washington hotel. "A check of the Trump International Hotel D.C.'s website indicates that the hotel demands a two-night minimum stay during the inauguration and has hiked its rates to $2,225 per night for Jan. 19 and 20, while a similar room runs in the $400 range during most of the rest of January." TRUMP'S FRIDAY — The president and VP MIKE PENCE have nothing on their public schedules. President-elect JOE BIDEN and VP-elect KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules. | | | | GET THE BIG SCOOPS IN TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: A new year is upon us. Inauguration Day is just weeks away. President-elect Joe Biden is building an administration and quickly staffing up. What do his selections and decisions tell us about his priorities? Find out in Transition Playbook, the definitive guide to the new administration and one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news daily and analyzes the appointments, people, and emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | 
PHOTO DU JOUR: Volunteers help clean up a row of historic buildings in downtown Nashville on Thursday that were damaged by the detonation of an RV. | Alex Kent/Getty Images | IN MEMORIAM — "Dick Thornburgh, ex-governor and U.S. attorney general, dies," Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "Dick Thornburgh forged his impressive reputation for public service as a corruption-fighting federal prosecutor in his native Pittsburgh, burnished it as a cool and efficient governor in Harrisburg and cemented it in a variety of broader-scope positions from U.S. attorney general to reform-minded administrator at the United Nations. … "Mr. Thornburgh died Thursday morning at a retirement community facility outside of Pittsburgh, his son David said. He was 88. More pragmatic engineer than passionate ideologue when it came to politics, Mr. Thornburgh maintained a largely untainted reputation that won the trust both of voters who elected him Pennsylvania's chief executive from 1979 to 1987 and of multiple presidents who tapped him for key roles before and after his governorship." OUR DEEPEST CONDOLENCES to Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) and SARAH BLOOM RASKIN, whose 25-year-old son, Tommy Raskin, died Thursday morning. Their statement CLIMATE FILES — "Biden set to supercharge clean energy push with $40B stash," by Zack Colman: "DOE is poised to again play an essential role as the Biden administration looks to leverage clean energy investments towards its twin goals of pulling the economy out of a deep slump and delivering on the president-elect's ambitious climate pledges. "And Biden, who oversaw the Obama administration's stimulus work as vice president, unknowingly left himself a down-payment for the work ahead: $40 billion in unused Energy Department loan authority awarded under the 2009 stimulus. That pot of money could offer a way to kick start his climate and infrastructure plan." | | | | A message from Facebook: Internet regulations need an update
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Learn More | | | COULD THIS EXPLAIN Trump's early return from Mar-a-Lago? … "U.S. to move aircraft carrier out of Mideast amid Iran tension," AP: "The Pentagon has decided to send home the only Navy aircraft carrier operating in the Middle East, a move that would reduce U.S. firepower in the region amid heightened tensions with Iran, officials said Thursday. "The decision, confirmed by three defense officials but not yet publicly announced, emerged one day after Air Force B-52 bombers flew nonstop from the United States to the Persian Gulf in a show of force that military officials said was intended to caution Iran against carrying out attacks against U.S. forces or interests." TUCKED IN THE SPENDING PACKAGE — "How 100,000 Pacific Islanders got their health care back," by Dan Diamond: "For two decades, victims of U.S. nuclear bomb tests fought to obtain the Medicaid eligibility that was promised them. In the waning days of 2020, they won." SUNDAY SO FAR … | CNN | "State of the Union": Surgeon General Jerome Adams … Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine … Jon Ossoff … Stacey Abrams. | FOX | "Fox News Sunday": Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) … Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). Panel: Jason Chaffetz, Catherine Lucey and Juan Williams. | NBC | "Meet the Press": Anthony Fauci … Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) … Stacey Abrams. Panel: Peter Baker, Geoff Bennett and Leigh Ann Caldwell. Panel: Clint Watts and Brandy Zadrozny. | ABC | "This Week": Anthony Fauci … Stacey Abrams. Panel: Chris Christie and Rahm Emanuel. Panel: Matthew Dowd, Byron Pitts, Julie Pace and Susan Glasser. | CBS | "Face the Nation": Moncef Slaoui … Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson … Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti … Jo Ann Jenkins … Scott Gottlieb. | Gray TV | "Full Court Press": Jeanne Marrazzo … Yasmeen Abutaleb … Lauren Warren. | Sinclair | "America This Week" (re-air): President Donald Trump town hall. | | | | | | A NEW YEAR, A NEW HUDDLE: Huddle, our daily must-read in congressional offices, will have a new author in 2021! Olivia Beavers will take the reins on Jan. 4, and she has some big plans in store. Don't miss out, subscribe to our Huddle newsletter, the essential guide to all things Capitol Hill. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com. ENGAGED — Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), 38, proposed to Ginger Luckey, 26, at Mar-a-Lago on Wednesday night. Judge Jeanine broke the news … Pensacola News Journal: "Luckey is an analyst at Apeel, a company that produces coatings for produce to keep food fresh, according to her LinkedIn. Her residence is listed as Santa Barbara, California. Her brother, Palmer Luckey, was a former Facebook executive who was ousted from the tech company in 2017 after his contributions to far-right political groups came to light … "Gaetz sent shockwaves through social media in June when he announced he had a Cuban son, Nestor, who he claimed to have been raising for the past six years. Nestor is the biological brother of Gaetz' ex-girlfriend and he said at the time he was a 'single dad.'" NYE, MAR-A-LAGO STYLE: Gaetz was back at Trump's Florida getaway Thursday night. Pic … Daily Mail: "Trump's family bring in the New Year at Mar-a-Lago without him: Tiffany, Don Jr, Eric and their other halves join hundreds of maskless guests at $1k-a-head party to ring in 2021 after President returned to DC early" THE ENTERTAINMENT, according to Meridith McGraw: "Some members shelled out $1,200 for New Years Eve gala tickets at the club, hoping to catch a glimpse of the president and first lady and be entertained by 90s rapper Vanilla Ice, but were disappointed when the president suddenly decided to return early for Washington for reasons unknown." TRANSITIONS — Incoming House Energy and Commerce ranking member Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and the committee GOP are adding Sarah Rogers Burke as deputy staff director, Michael Taggart as policy director, Emily King as director of member services, Peter Kielty as general Counsel and Bijan (BJ) Koohmaraie as chief counsel. — "Pelosi Names 1st Female Chaplain To Serve Congress," NPR: "Speaker Nancy Pelosi marked another milestone for women in Congress Thursday by appointing retired Navy Rear Adm. Margaret Grun Kibben as chaplain of the U.S. House of Representatives." WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Suzanne Wrasse, comms director for the Senate Foreign Relations GOP, and Ryan Wrasse, comms director for Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), welcomed John Ryan "Johnny" Wrasse on Wednesday in D.C. He's named after his grandpa John, a retired U.S. Navy master chief. Pic — Brad Tytel, senior program officer for Covid-19 response policy at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Meg Mager, senior program manager at the Max Foundation, welcomed Sofia Mara Mager-Tytel on Christmas Eve. She came in at 6 lbs, 15 oz. Pic … Another pic NEW YEAR'S BIRTHDAYS: Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) is 67 … Rep. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.) is 56 … Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) is 47 … Rep.-elect Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.) is 61 … BuzzFeed co-founder and CEO Jonah Peretti is 47 … WaPo's Brady Dennis … Dana Klinghoffer of NBC News comms … James Glassman is 74 (h/t Tim Burger) … Kevin McGrann, assistant VP for federal relations at AT&T … Stephanie Penn … Todd Webster, SVP at Cornerstone Government Affairs … Brian Frederick, SVP at the ALS Association (h/ts Jon Haber) … Dan Weiss … Priscilla Ross of the American Hospital Association … Shannon Watts … C-SPAN's Nicole Ninh … Andy Maner, CEO of Avantus Federal (h/t Ed Cash) … Justin Bartolomeo, principal at JMB Public Relations … European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is 65 … … Gary Johnson is 68 … Google's Tomer Ovadia, a POLITICO alum … Dan Koh … Rob Johnson, founder of Johnson Strategies … former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine is 74 … Josh Nanberg, president and creative director at Ampersand Strategies, is 47 … Katie Lee … former Rep. John Sullivan (R-Okla.) is 56 … former Rep. Martin Frost (D-Texas) is 79 … Nirmal Mankani … Ted Bridis … Jeremy Bates … J.D. Bryant, director at Bully Pulpit Interactive … Kara Kearns … Ken Toltz … Hannah Schwartz … Michael Kelly … Meagan Vargas … Margot Friedman … POLITICO's Alex DiNino … Sally Slater … Caroline Buck … Victor Ashe … Alison Howard … Kate Beale Maguire … Lauren Hagen … Yama Noori … James Donnelly is 31 … Max Richtman … Zach Howell … Jay Kahn … Jennifer Hall … Rocky Disabato … Hugh Delehanty … POLITICO Europe's Giulia Chiatante | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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