Thursday, October 8, 2020

Will republicans and dems smoke this?

Now, it's treated a lot like alcohol, with age restrictions and taxes collected on sales...

October 07, 2020

Forget the Election … The Lame-Duck Session is Smoking

✔️ The 2018 cannabis bubble was ugly. Are the tides turning?

✔️ Which company could dominate the U.S. marijuana market?

Cannabis stocks are starting to spike again … Should you have high hopes for this trend?

 

We've seen it before. In 2018, there was a huge weed craze — some even called it a 'bubble.' But it all went up in smoke. 


Currently, the U.S. Congress is considering legalizing weed for all Americans — with age restrictions, of course. This could be a game-changer. 


Everyone's asking ... Is this the time to buy?


It's not necessarily a simple yes or no answer. I'm going to warn you now: not every company in this sector will thrive.


So how can you approach weed stocks intelligently? Read on...

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The 2018 Weed Bubble


In 2018, Canada legalized weed. Now, it's treated a lot like alcohol, with age restrictions and taxes collected on sales.

 

Meanwhile, in the U.S., individual states began lifting century-old prohibitions on the plant. It didn't take long for weed stocks to start going crazy.


It became commonplace for stocks to double, triple, or even more.

 

During the height of the craze, India Globalization Capital, Inc. (NYSE: IGC) went from $0.40 to $14 — in six weeks


Tilray, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) went from $22 to $300 in just under two months. 


Fortunes were made ... but fortunes were lost, too.  


The bubble eventually burst — stocks that once soared are currently way off their highs. Many are still continuing to trend down. Meanwhile, bag holders are looking to get out after holding for years.


Canada has been selling recreational weed by the ton. But the related stocks have underperformed — the huge surge everyone predicted ended up being a bust.


This is why I always have an exit plan when I trade. Buy the rumor, sell the news.


In reality, weed sales have boomed wherever it's been legalized. So what's the problem? The market created a massive bubble and early stock prices got overinflated. The market's still finding balance.


There are profitable companies in the industry ... Can we learn something from our neighbors to the north?

Oh, Canada...


Let's start with two Canada-based cannabis companies. 


Aphria Inc. (Nasdaq: APHA) and Aurora Cannabis Inc. (Nasdaq: ACB) are some of the most popular and well-known stocks in the industry. Both are profitable, with increased sales and profits since the legalization. 


Both of these stocks made huge parabolic moves in 2018. Currently, both are well off of their highs ... and keep sinking lower. I won't try to pick the bottom on either one of these.


I'm not interested in trading stocks on a random bounce — I'm looking for companies that are on the rise. 


As legalization becomes more widespread in the U.S., it may be time to start looking at the players...

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Green States of America


The U.S. House of Representatives has made plans to vote on a bill to remove marijuana from the list of federally prohibited substances. 


In short, the U.S. is taking the first step to legalize weed.


This bill is likely to pass the House, which is controlled by Democrats. Its future is uncertain in the Senate, which is controlled by Republicans.


The vote is scheduled after the November elections. This is known as the lame-duck session — when congressmen have less accountability.


Notable figures want to make it happen. 


For instance, John Boehner is a Republican and the former Speaker of the House. As soon as he left office, he landed a deal as a lobbyist for a cannabis company. Now, he's lobbying in support of full legalization.


When the bill reaches the Senate, it could pass without debate or could be dead on arrival ... It depends on how well lobbyists like Boehner do their jobs.


It may not happen during this session. But eventually, I believe that weed will be legalized — complete with new laws to govern the distribution and tax the sales.

Regulation Favors the Lobbyists


The marijuana industry is still emerging. Who's gonna be the next big weed company?


So far, state laws have favored bigger players — probably because they're the ones who can afford to lobby and influence how the laws are written.


For now, the small players probably won't be big winners in the U.S.

Is that fair? No. But it's how things go. 


I don't plan to fight regulators ... I'm looking to see who's ready to comply.

So I'm looking for companies with existing operations in the U.S. — hopefully, in a state where weed is legal.  


I want to see cash on hand — and the ability to raise more cash when it's time to expand.


So I'm watching for existing players with room to grow...

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Time to Sober Up


The craze came and went in 2018 ... and a lot of early weed investors were left burned.


This time, I don't expect any major 1,000% gainers. Sure, it could happen — but it's not as likely. 


I'm looking for players that have a business to fall back on even if the legislation falls flat. If the legalization does come to fruition, they'd likely be the first ones to expand. 


Look for real sales and liquid stocks. Don't let the hype cloud your judgment.


High times ahead,


Paul Scolardi

Editor, Swing Trade Millionaires

P.S. The market is unforgiving. Election season can eat new traders alive. And if you're looking to jump into the chaos… there's no better intro to stock trading than Tim Sykes' 30 Day Bootcamp.

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