Thursday, October 8, 2020

FX Strategy 08 Oct 2020

 
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FX Strategy 08 Oct 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, AUD and SEK are the top gainers today, up 0.31% and 0.25% versus the dollar while USD and JPY are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.302, down -0.1bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.032, down -0.6bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.499, down -0.8bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.774, down -1.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23647.07, up 0.96%. The Kospi was trading at 2391.96, up 0.21%. The Hang Seng was trading at 24093.5, down -0.62%. In the European equities, indices were trading stronger today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13030.12, up 0.79%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3258.51, up 0.78%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5967.31, up 0.35%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3250.0, up 0.84%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3431.38, up 0.72%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5939.8, up 0.28%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading firm today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 42.38, up 0.93%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 40.28, up 0.83%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already seen German August data this morning with Balance of Trade (Actual €12.8B v Forecast €19.2B), Exports MoM s.a (Actual 2.4% v Consensus 1.4%), Imports MoM s.a (Actual 5.8% v Consensus 1.4%) and Current Account (Actual €16.5B v Forecast €18.2B). ECB's Schnabel, Guindos and Mersch are all separately speaking this morning at 07:25 GMT, 08:00 GMT and 10:15 GMT respectively. Mexican Inflation Rate for September YoY (Previous 4.05% v Forecast 4.1%) and MoM (Previous 0.39% v Forecast 0.4%) follows at 11:00 GMT.

 

Moving into the afternoon session, we start at 12:00 GMT with Brazilian Retail Sales for August MoM (Previous 5.2% v Forecast 3%), Canadian Housing Starts for September (Previous 262.4K v Forecast 250K) and Bank of Canada's Governor Macklem will start speaking from 12:15 GMT. Weekly US Initial Jobless (Previous 837K v Forecast 840K) and Continuing Claims (Previous 11767K v Forecast 11500K) follow at 12:30 GMT. Later in the session at 17:00 GMT, we look forward to the US 30-Year Bond Auction with Fed's Barkin and Kaplan speaking at 18:30 GMT and 22:00 GMT respectively.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1732 for 1.1814
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1732 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1814 enter at 1.1759. Below 1.1732 to open 1.17

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2898 for 1.2983
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.2898 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.2983 enter at 1.2926. Below 1.2898 to open 1.2867

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.68 for 106.19
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 105.68 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 106.19 enter at 105.85. Below 105.68 to open 105.39

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7129 for 0.7185
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7129 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7185 enter at 0.7147. Below 0.7129 to open 0.7106

 
 
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