Friday, September 4, 2020

FX Strategy 04 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 04 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and USD are the top gainers today while SEK and NOK are the top losers, down -0.27% and -0.23% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.237, up 0.7bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.636, flat 0.0bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.032, flat 0.0bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.491, down -0.1bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading weak today. The Kospi was trading at 2368.25, down -1.15%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23205.43, down -1.11%. The Hang Seng was trading at 24596.0, down -1.65%. In the European equities, indices were trading weaker today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3279.75, down -0.74%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5807.25, down -0.75%. The DAX 30 was trading at 12966.25, down -0.7%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far,The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3280.0, down -0.39%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3441.12, down -0.59%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5809.8, down -0.61%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 43.7, down -0.84%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 40.98, down -0.94%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, earlier today we have already had Australian Retail Sales MoM for July (Actual 3.2% v Forecast 3.3%) and German Factory Orders MoM again for July (Actual 2.8% v Forecast 5.9%). Soon to be released are Construction PMI figures for the Euro Area (EA), France, Germany, Italy and the UK. At 09:30 GMT we expect BoE Saunders to be speaking also.

 

Moving into the afternoon session, we have a host of employment data releases. At 12:30 GMT we have (August) Canadian Employment Change (Previous 418.5K v Forecast 330K), Participation Rate (Previous 64.3% v Forecast 64.4%) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 10.9% v Forecast 10.3%). Alongside at the same time, we have headline US employment data for August with Non Farm Payrolls (Previous 1763K v Forecast 1490K), Unemployment Rate (Previous 10.2% v Forecast 9.9%) and Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Previous 0.2% v Forecast 0.1%). Russian Inflation Rate for August YoY (Previous 3.4% v Forecast 3.6%) and MoM (Previous 0.4% v Forecast 0.0%) is released at 13:00 GMT. At 14:00 GMT we have Canadian Ivey PMI s.a. for August (Previous 68.5 v Forecast 68.7) with EBC's Lane speaking at 15:00 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1805 for 1.1881
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.1805 and we see a rise to 1.1881 enter at 1.183. Below 1.1805 to open 1.1759

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.3294 for 1.3229
Short-term view: GBPUSD resistance comes in at 1.3294 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.3229 enter at 1.3273. Above 1.3294 to open 1.3345

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 106.5 for 105.95
Short-term view: USDJPY resistance comes in at 106.5 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 105.95 enter at 106.32. Above 106.5 to open 106.8

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7293 for 0.7245
Short-term view: AUDUSD resistance comes in at 0.7293 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 0.7245 enter at 0.7277. Above 0.7293 to open 0.7321

 
 
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