Monday, August 3, 2020

FX Strategy 03 Aug 2020

 
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FX Strategy 03 Aug 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, USD and JPY are the top gainers today while NOK and CHF are the top losers, down -0.59% and -0.47% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading stronger today. The US 10-year was trading at 0.543, up 1.0bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.023, up 0.7bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.525, up 0.6bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.11, up 0.5bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 22195.38, up 2.24%. The Kospi was trading at 2251.04, up 0.07%. The Hang Seng was trading at 24367.0, down -0.93%. In the European equities, indices were trading firm today. The DAX 30 was trading at 12387.95, up 0.61%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3187.75, up 0.42%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5899.45, up 0.03%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, Euro Stoxx 50 Futures were trading at 3182.0, up 0.44%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3261.62, down -0.06%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5861.8, down -0.42%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 43.2, down -0.23%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 39.91, down -0.89%.

 

We have already had the release of South Korean Markit Manufacturing PMI for July (Actual 46.9 v Forecast 49) and the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July (Actual 52.8 v Forecast 51.6). This morning we also look forward to Markit Manufacturing PMI data from Italy, France, Germany, UK and the Euro Area. Mexican Business Confidence for July is released at 11:00 GMT (Previous 38.6 v Forecast 37) with the Monetary Policy Report from Russia following at 12:00 GMT.

 

In the afternoon trading session, we have July data from the US, with Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (Previous 49.8 v Forecast 51.3) at 13:45 GMT, ISM Manufacturing Prices (Previous 51.3 v Forecast 51.9), ISM Manufacturing New Orders (Previous 56.4 v Forecast 55.1), ISM Manufacturing Employment (Previous 42.1 v Forecast 45.9), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Previous 52.6 v Forecast 53.6) and Construction Spending MoM for (Previous 46.9 v Forecast 49) all being released at 14:00 GMT. Fed's Bullard and Evans are speaking at 16:30 GMT and 18:00 GMT respectively.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1816 for 1.1723
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1816 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1723 enter at 1.1785. Above 1.1816 to open 1.1872

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3047 for 1.3109
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.3047 and we see a rise to 1.3109 enter at 1.3067. Below 1.3047 to open 1.3008

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.38 for 106.58
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 105.38 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 106.58 enter at 105.78. Below 105.38 to open 104.71

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7168 for 0.7108
Short-term view: AUDUSD resistance comes in at 0.7168 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 0.7108 enter at 0.7148. Above 0.7168 to open 0.7202

 
 
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