| | | | |  | | By Melanie Mason | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE PHILLY MATH — “Behind the Blue Wall: Trump’s Giveaways, Harris’s Balancing Act,” by Jonathan Martin: “Sitting in the Robert A. Brady Philadelphia Democratic Party headquarters, ROBERT A. BRADY, the former congressman and seemingly forever city boss, grappled with the weight of it all this week. … Next to Brady sat his young lieutenant and numbers-cruncher, GIANNI HILL , with laptop open. “The margin [KAMALA] HARRIS needed coming out of Philadelphia to win statewide was straightforward, Hill said. ‘If we are looking at 450 (thousand), it’s going to be tight, that’s not going to be an early night, if we’re looking at 480 (thousand) I’m feeling good, if it’s above 500 (thousand) they’re calling P-A.’” NEW THIS MORNING — “Inside the Ruthless, Restless Final Days of Trump’s Campaign,” by the Atlantic’s Tim Alberta: “At the center of this tumult, people close to [DONALD] TRUMP agreed, is a candidate whose appetite for chaos has only grown—and is a reminder of what awaits should he win on November 5.” Read on for more on the rise and fall of COREY LEWANDOWSKI, the story that nearly made Trump jettison CHRIS LaCIVITA and who was really responsible for the Madison Square Garden fiasco.
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California is set to slow down the vote counting once again. | Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images | CALIFORNIA WAITIN’ — Good (very early) morning from southern California, where we in the Golden State are, as usual, watching the presidential race from the sidelines as Harris and Trump continue to blanket the swing states that will decide the presidency. But when it comes to the other November nailbiter — which party will nab control of the House — California is very much ready to be the center of attention. Republicans are clinging to a four-seat majority, and there are at least a half-dozen congressional races in the state that could end up in coin-flip territory. And that means the nation might soon be collectively rolling its eyes yet again at California’s very slow vote count. In other words: It may take days, or weeks, to learn who controls the majority. Just take recent history as a guide. In 2022, Republicans did not officially flip the House until eight days after Election Day, when the Associated Press projected GOP Rep. MIKE GARCIA won reelection to his blue-tinged northern Los Angeles County district. The final California race, where Republican JOHN DUARTE’s 564-point victory added to the GOP’s meager majority, was not called until Dec. 2. Spare us the snark on social media — we’ve heard it all before. The truth is California’s lengthy vote count is inevitable, the result of a concerted effort to ensure every ballot gets tallied, even if those policies tack on extra time. “All these concerns about making sure everybody's vote counts is something that California leaned on the side of, as opposed to leaning on the side of getting out the results immediately,” PAUL MITCHELL, the Democratic election data guru based in Sacramento, told Playbook. That includes proactively sending mail ballots to every active registered voter; counting ballots that arrive to county elections officials up to a week after Election Day, so long as they’re postmarked by Tuesday; allowing for a generous ballot “curing” process to verify voter signatures; and letting voters drop off their ballot in any of the state’s 58 counties. And just think, it could be worse: California, unlike some states , allows county elections officials to pre-process early mail-in ballots by removing envelopes and preparing ballots to be tabulated. Republicans have long grumbled about the state’s sluggish count. Then-Speaker PAUL RYAN cast aspersions on California’s “bizarre” process in 2018, after Democrats dominated the late counts and ended up flipping seven seats as part of their march to the majority. But Republicans have now embraced the “ballot harvesting” — collecting mail ballots from voters and turning them in at election offices or polling places — that they used to deride. “It’s the rules we have. You can either cry about it or do something about it,” said JESSICA MILLAN PATTERSON, chair of the California Republican Party. “We choose to do something about it.” So where should the election wonks be watching to get a (relatively) early read on California? With every must-watch House race in California in margin-of-error territory, it’s impossible to know which contest will end up being the laggard of the group. But most operatives here point to now-decidedly-purple Orange County, which gets high praise from both parties for its quick and transparent reporting of election results. — Democrat DAVE MIN and Republican SCOTT BAUGH are duking it out in the 47th Congressional District to succeed Democratic Rep. KATIE PORTER in what is the GOP’s best pick-up opportunity in the state. — In the country’s most expensive House race, GOP Rep. MICHELLE STEEL is battling Democrat DEREK TRAN in the 45th District. — In Los Angeles County, there’s Garcia, one of the most endangered House Republicans in the state given the district’s blue tilt and a well-funded challenge from Democrat GEORGE WHITESIDES. — And in Riverside County, the 2022 matchup between veteran GOP Rep. KEN CALVERT and Democrat WILL ROLLINS offers a cautionary tale about reading too much into early returns: Rollins was at new member orientation in Washington when news came that Calvert had actually prevailed. Now the two are squaring off in a rematch. Most observers are bracing for slower counts out of the two Central Valley toss-ups, which are both 2022 rematches: Duarte against Democrat ADAM GRAY in the 13th District and Republican incumbent DAVID VALADAO versus Democrat RUDY SALAS in the 22nd. Both districts criss-cross a number of rural counties, which tend to have fewer resources and staff than their urban and suburban counterparts. No wonder that GOP and Democratic staffers — ready to be dispatched to cure ballots and monitor vote counting — are unironically bracing themselves to be on the campaign grind well into Thanksgiving. Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop me a line: mmason@politico.com.
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Click here & learn more. | | | PUT ON THOSE LISTENING EARS — For the second time in a week, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON found himself off-message on the hustings yesterday. Strumping in Syracuse, New York, for endangered GOP incumbent BRANDON WILLIAMS, Johnson cast doubt on the future of the CHIPS and Science Act — the blockbuster bipartisan industrial policy legislation that is financing a Micron megafab in Williams’ district and could be at risk of repeal under a GOP trifecta. An incredulous Williams was left to gamely try and clean up immediately afterward, saying he would “remind him night and day how important the CHIPS Act is” in video captured by student journalist Luke Radel. Johnson later said he misheard the question and said in a statement that “the CHIPS Act is not on the agenda for repeal” — though changes to some of its “costly regulations” might be. More from Christine Mui NEWS FROM THE LOYAL OPPOSITION — “Tories pick first Black woman to lead a major UK political party,” by Stefan Boscia and Esther Webber: “[KEMI] BADENOCH’s focus will now switch to how to take on an already unpopular Labour government, which has just brought forward the biggest package of U.K. tax rises in more than 30 years.”
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   Discover the top challenges workers face in saving for retirement in BlackRock's latest episode. Learn from 6 key stats in our Read on Retirement® survey. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden will travel to Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he will deliver remarks at a Carpenters Local 445 GOTV event at 1 p.m. and participate in a campaign event at 2:10 p.m. Biden will return to Wilmington, Delaware, in the afternoon. On the trail Trump is set to host rallies in Gastonia, North Carolina (12 p.m.), Salem, Virginia (4 p.m.) and Greensboro, North Carolina (7:30 p.m.). Vance is set to host rallies in Las Vegas (1 p.m.) and Scottsdale, Arizona (3:30 p.m.). Harris is set to hold rallies in Atlanta (1:25 p.m.) and Charlotte, North Carolina (5 p.m.). Walz is set to hold campaign events in Las Vegas (12:15 p.m.), Flagstaff, Arizona (4 p.m.) and Tucson, Arizona (7:30 p.m.).
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| |  Some Republicans are worried that too much attention has been given to the Montana Senate race, where Tim Sheehy is trying to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | BIGGER THAN THE BIG SKY — Is the Montana Senate race putting Republicans in danger on the Senate map? Some GOP strategists working on races this cycle are wondering whether NRSC Chair STEVE DAINES is too obsessively focused on his home state. These operatives are “growing frustrated with GOP party leaders’ strategy and in-house spending, warning that the party may be squandering an opportunity to rack up wins and pad a Senate majority in a year when they benefit from a historically favorable map,” WaPo’s Liz Goodwin, Clara Ence Morse and Isaac Arnsdorf report. “The operatives said the [NRSC] has focused too intensely on the Senate race in Montana to the detriment of other winnable races — so much so that some have started calling the group the Montana Republican Senatorial Committee. … The NRSC is ‘obsessively focused on Montana,’ one strategist said.” RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE ON WISCONSIN — Trump returned to Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee yesterday, the site of his triumphant ascendance to the top of the Republican ticket at the Republican National Convention back in July. “The energy of his supporters Friday night in Milwaukee was still palpable months later,” Natalie Allison reports. “He made his usual exaggerated claims about his standing in the polls — but told his supporters to ‘just pretend’ he’s in a tight race so they go and vote.” Related read: “Trump’s closing message: Attack, divide and veer off script,” by Lisa Kashinsky, Meredith Lee Hill and Natalie Allison Harris, meanwhile, nearby “rallied voters just outside Milwaukee on Friday night — scrambling to boost turnout in a Democratic stronghold lagging the rest of the state in early voting,” Elena Schneider reports. “Data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission shows the city of Milwaukee is trailing the rest of the state by about 7 percent both in its mail-in return rate and in overall registered voter turnout.” HARRIS’ COALITION — “Harris’s Hope: Getting Right-Leaning Voters to Shift to the Left,” by NYT’s Katie Glueck and Kellen Browning: “From suburban Philadelphia to upscale Phoenix neighborhoods, interviews with more than 50 voters in critical battleground areas made clear that these voters indeed exist, and tend to be particularly bothered by far-reaching abortion bans and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.” UNDER PRESSURE — At her closing events, Harris is still facing down pro-Palestine protesters, often interrupting her speeches to engage with the disillusioned set of voters. Dems “had hoped Harris’s more empathetic rhetoric on Palestinian suffering would help rally Arab American and Muslim support, particularly in the crucial swing state of Michigan. But the combination of a worsening situation in the Middle East and Trump’s overtures to the Arab American and Muslim community have complicated that effort,” WaPo’s Yasmeen Abutaleb reports. To wit: Rep. RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.) spoke at a United Auto Workers rally in Detroit last night, where she declined to endorse Harris, continuing her vocal criticism of the Biden administration’s Israel policy, the Detroit News’ Max Reinhart reports. Tlaib instead “focused her speech to UAW members on down ballot races.” TAKING THE SHAPIRO PILL — “Harris promises to eliminate college degree requirements for federal jobs on Day 1,” by Megan Messerly COURT WATCHING — The Supreme Court yesterday refused a Republican request to narrow the options for Pennsylvania voters who botch their mail ballots and still seek to vote, Josh Gerstein and Zach Montellaro report . Though no member of the court publicly dissented from the decision, three GOP-appointed justices “signed onto a brief statement that adopted a highly technical rationale for the court’s action and appeared to leave the door open to future litigation over the issue.” Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court said that it won’t weigh in before Election Day on whether “undated” mail ballots in the state should count, Zach and Josh report. PRO TIPS — “Watch These Counties for Early Clues to Election Night,” by WSJ’s Dante Chinni, Stephanie Stamm and Anthony DeBarros CLICKERS — NYT: “Donald Trump’s 2024 in Pictures” … “Kamala Harris’s 2024 in Pictures” RACE FOR THE HOUSE A NEW YORK MINUTE — “Dem candidate in battleground NY House race forced to pull campaign ad after complaints from his old HS,” by NY Post’s Vaughn Golden POLL POSITION HERD MENTALITY — Nate Silver tackles the ever-tightening race that pollsters are projecting: “Take, for example, this afternoon’s polling release from the British firm Redfield & Wilton. They polled all seven of the core battleground states. And in all seven, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each received between 47 and 48 percent of the vote. “Isn’t this a little convenient? Whatever happens, Redfield & Wilton — not a firm with a well-established reputation in the US — will be able to throw up their hands and say ‘well, we projected a tie, so don’t blame us!’” Silver argues that “if pollsters are doing honest work, we should see a lot more ‘outliers’ than we do.” See the full Redfield & Wilton polling Pennsylvania: Harris +2, per On Point/Red Eagle Politics/SoCal Strategies. Trump +2, per OnMessage. Harris +3, per YouGov. Harris +2, per Data For Progress. … Arizona: Trump +1, per On Point. Trump +3, per OnMessage. Trump +1, per YouGov. Trump +1, per Data For Progress. … Wisconsin: Trump +1, per OnMessage. Harris +4, per YouGov. … Michigan: Tied at 48%, per OnMessage. Harris +3, per YouGov. … Nevada: Tied at 48%, per Emerson. Harris +1, per YouGov. Harris +2, per Data For Progress. … North Carolina: Trump +1, per YouGov. … Maine: Democratic Rep. JARED GOLDEN +12 (!) and Harris +8, per the Bangor Daily News.
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|  Linda McMahon is among the group of Trump officials laying groundwork for a second administration. | Mike Stewart/AP | 1. TRANSITION LENSES: “Meet the Trump loyalists prepping for aggressive policy action on Day 1,” by Gavin Bade, Hailey Fuchs, Meridith McGraw, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Robin Bravender: “The former president is leaning on many of the people who served in top positions in his first administration to help prepare an aggressive set of policies he plans to pursue right out of the gate, if elected. The result, insiders say, is an administration that would be better prepared than in 2016 to implement Trump’s priorities soon after the inauguration — especially on core agenda items like trade and tariffs. … “The policy preparations have been far lower profile — by design, given the backlash the conservative Heritage Foundation attracted for its Project 2025 blueprint for a second Trump administration. But behind the scenes, the Trump transition is leaning on a diffuse roster of former Trump administration officials, according to conversations with 16 people familiar with Trump transition planning, who were granted anonymity to discuss confidential discussions.” 2. COMING UP FOR AIR: “The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda,’” by WSJ’s Alexander Osipovich: “The man who is betting more than $30 million on a Donald Trump victory wants you to know that he isn’t trying to manipulate the U.S. election. ‘My intent is just making money,’ the man, who called himself THÉO , said during a Zoom call with a reporter from The Wall Street Journal earlier this week. He described himself as a Frenchman who had previously lived in the U.S. and worked as a trader for banks. …Speaking English with a slight accent, he said he had made his bets after concluding that polls were underestimating Trump’s support.” 3. MAIL CALL: “But their emails: Federal employees’ communications swept up in conservatives’ dragnet,” by Robin Bravender: “Conservative groups and activists have filed tens of thousands of Freedom of Information Act requests for federal employees’ emails throughout President Joe Biden’s time in the White House, according to records reviewed by POLITICO’s E&E News. The groups are seeking a broad range of documents, including specific requests for civil servants’ communications that could potentially be used to oust or target employees suspected of disloyalty to Trump. The groups have also requested details about political appointees schedules and meetings, as well as communications with congressional offices.” 4. HOW FEMA FALTERED: “FEMA didn’t answer almost half the calls it received for disaster aid,” by Thomas Frank and Adam Aton in Hendersonville, North Carolina: “Hundreds of thousands of people who are trying to recover from disasters nationwide have been unable to get through to federal call centers or have stayed on hold for excessive periods of time in the weeks since Helene barreled into southern Appalachia last month. Overwhelmed by Helene and Hurricane Milton, the centers failed to answer nearly half of the incoming phone calls over the course of one week recently. For the calls that were answered, it took more than an hour for federal workers to pick up, on average.” 5. THE ADAMS FAMILY: “Back channels between Eric Adams and Donald Trump exist. Whether they’re activated remains to be seen,” by Joe Anuta and Jeff Coltin: “Adams has dined, formed alliances with and even hired local gadflies, entertainers and business interests who are close to Trump, including a radio host who spoke at his recent Madison Square Garden rally. Those connections — and the mayor’s growing alignment with Trump over their shared troubles with the Department of Justice — have been enough to unnerve Adams’ fellow Democrats, who worry the mayor may be laying the groundwork for a presidential pardon should he be convicted of federal corruption charges.” Related read: “Judge sets trial date for Eric Adams,” by Jeff Coltin
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   BlackRock is proud to help about 35 million Americans invest to save for retirement. | | | CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 16 funnies
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| GREAT WEEKEND READS: — “Guns. Knives. Bats. Hammers. Hatchets. Spears,” by WaPo’s Ruby Cramer: “As incidents of road rage escalate across the country, aggressive drivers in Texas try to understand what triggers anger.” — “The Tucker Carlson Road Show,” by The New Yorker’s Andrew Marantz: “After his Fox show was cancelled, Carlson spent a year in the wilderness, honing his vision of what the future of Trumpism might look like. This fall, he took his act on tour.” — “She said she had a miscarriage — then got arrested under an abortion law,” by WaPo’s Caroline Kitchener: “‘Why is having a miscarriage a problem? Why is this illegal, apparently?’ This Nevada woman was charged with manslaughter under a law from 1911.” — “The Game Theory of Democracy,” by NYT’s Amanda Taub: “Countries where democracy is in trouble share a common pattern, and it’s a worrying one for the United States.” — “The Middle East Drug Fueling War, Crime and All-Night Parties,” by WSJ’s Sune Engel Rasmussen and Suha Ma’ayeh: “Captagon is bringing big profits to Syria’s Assad regime and Hezbollah — and it’s triggering a health crisis.” — “Dreading the Constable’s Knock in an Eviction Capital,” by WSJ’s Will Parker: “In fast-growing Phoenix, higher rents have pushed more people to their financial limits. Landlord-friendly laws mean evictions can be speedy.” — “Biden and Trump put in danger by Secret Service agents: Watch the second episode of StravaLeaks,” by Le Monde’s Sébastien Bourdon, Antoine Schirer, video investigation team and Sinead McCausland — “New Data on Trump’s Border Security Record: Releasing Criminals to Jail Asylum Seekers,” by the Cato Institute’s David Bier: “The newly uncovered information shows that while the Trump administration (2017–2020) was prioritizing prosecutions of migrant parents, separating families, and banning asylum, it also released criminals, including those who went on to commit crimes.” — “The US Is Squandering Its Hidden Advantage Over Xi Jinping,” by Bloomberg: “America’s soft power influence over China’s 1.4 billion people is being quickly eroded by the vitriol and suspicion seeded by Donald Trump eight years ago.” — “Something That Both Candidates Secretly Agree On,” by The Atlantic’s Matteo Wong: “Harris’s and Trump’s records on AI are weirdly in sync.”
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Nicole Wallace wants George W. Bush to get off the sidelines. Sexyy Red might have struck a new campaign slogan for Kamala Harris. Anna Paulina Luna is now a Maxim cover girl. MEDIA MOVES — Mark Luckie and Kuwilileni Hauwanga are joining Capital B. Luckie will be director of audience and innovation and previously was director of digital strategy at the NAACP Legal Defense Fund. Hauwanga will be Deputy Director of Audience and previously was director of multimedia at the Brookings Institution. TRANSITION — Varun Jain is now deputy general counsel at the Transportation Department. He most recently was senior counselor to the OIRA administrator at the Office of Management and Budget. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook’s own Eli Okun and Bethany Irvine … Pat Buchanan … former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker … Makan Delrahim … Jonathan Stahler of the U.S. Mission to the U.N. … Jen Dlouhy … Roger Dow … Fox News’ Cam Cawthorne … AARP’s Bill Walsh … John Sampson of Workday … Melanie Tiano of T-Mobile … BBC’s Anthony Zurcher … Kevin Cirilli … Semafor’s Jay Solomon … Natalie Johnson … Catherine Lyons … Matt Bisenius of the National Automatic Merchandising Association … Daniela Pierre-Bravo … NYT’s Adam Kushner and Celeste Lavin … EPA’s Nicole Berckes … Aaron Weinberg of Rep. Jerry Nadler’s (D-N.Y.) office … WaPo’s Ava Wallace THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here ): CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) … Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) … Mohamed El-Erian … Chris Krebs … David Becker … Samantha Vinograd. CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Panel: David Axelrod, David Urban, Bakari Sellers and Kristen Soltis Anderson. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) … Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). Panel: Brit Hume, Karl Rove, Jessica Tarlov and Juan Williams. MSNBC “PoliticsNation”: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) … Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) … Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) … Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.). NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) … North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. Panel: Jen Psaki, Cristina Londoño Rooney, Marc Short and Chuck Todd. ABC “This Week”: Martha Raddatz, Jonathan Karl, Rick Klein, Pierre Thomas, Mary Bruce, Rachel Scott, Donna Brazile, Chris Christie, Reince Priebus, Juju Chang, Matt Gutman, Terry Moran, Steve Osunsami and Mary Alice Parks. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) … Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) … RNC co-chair Michael Whatley. Panel: George Will, Susan Page, Megan McArdle and Domenico Montanaro. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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