| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Joe Gould | | 
“We're facing an axis of connected threats that stretches from Moscow to Beijing and Tehran and China,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a January floor speech. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | With help from Mia McCarthy and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric “Axis of evil”: The neoconservative mantra that defined the U.S. war on terror era is back in vogue. Sort of. We don’t know about the rest of you, but here at NatSec Daily we’ve noticed that top U.S. officials and lawmakers are increasingly churning out “axis of evil”-style warnings about Western adversaries teaming up around the world. They warn that Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are all working more closely together — pointing to examples like Pyongyang’s deployment of troops to Russia to help fight Ukraine. And other prominent officials, like Rep. MARIO DÍAZ-BALART (R-Fla.), made the case in an interview with us that Cuba should be included in that list. No one phrase has caught on, but here are some of the top contenders we’re tracking, from the catchy to the eye-rollingly bad.
- “Axis of evil”: Why reinvent the wheel? Some top lawmakers such as Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL are repurposing this phrase verbatim to ramp up defense spending. “We're facing an axis of connected threats that stretches from Moscow to Beijing and Tehran and China,” McConnell said in a January floor speech. “Our adversaries speak the languages of strength. America can't afford not to be fluent.” But there’s a lot of historical baggage with this phrasing, as it’s inextricably linked to the U.S. follies of the disastrous 2003 invasion of Iraq.
- “Axis of authoritarianism”: We’ve heard this from numerous recent interviews with Democratic lawmakers and senior administration officials in our interviews on Iran, Russia and China. It’s alliterative and has a nice ring to it, but doesn’t have quite the same punchiness as “axis of evil.”
- “Axis of chaos”: This is a phrase that former top Trump national security official MATT POTTINGER has adopted, citing Chinese President XI JINPING’s own public remarks on how the defining feature of the world today is “chaos.” It has the same cadence as “axis of evil” without using that loaded phrase, so we say it’s a good start.
- CRINK: Some national security bigwigs like NATO Secretary General MARK RUTTE and PETER VAN PRAAGH, founding president of the Halifax International Security Forum, are working to make CRINK a thing — an acronymic rejoinder to BRICS with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Our take: Keep workshopping it.
- CRINGE: Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wa.), the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, is pushing CRINGE as the best nickname to use — an acronym for China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and “global extremists.” So far, we haven’t seen that catch on elsewhere. Perhaps because it’s a bit too…cringey?
- “Wolfpack of rogue states”: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE tried to make this a thing back in a 2019 speech on national security. It didn’t stick. We asked one senior U.S. diplomat about this. “Cool phrase, but maybe that’s the problem. It makes the bad guys sound too cool.”
- “Interconnected web of threats”: House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON used this in a major speech on national security earlier this year at the Hudson Institute, also calling these countries a “China-led axis.” It may be less sensational than other options, but from a communications perspective, it’s a total snoozefest.
NatSec Daily readers, do you have a better suggestion than these? Send us your ideas.
We did want to add an important footnote to this naming debate, because it’s also opened a discussion on whether the U.S. really needs a bumper-sticker-ready warning for all these countries. Some analysts say no, because it oversimplifies the threats and unique challenges each individual country poses to U.S. interests. “Our relationship with China is very different than our relationship with Iran, and treating them all as one lump of adversaries flattens out important context that policymakers need to make decisions that serve America’s interest,” said EMILY HORNE, a former Biden White House National Security Council spokesperson now at the WestExec Advisors consulting firm. China, meanwhile, has caught onto this new parlor game and is unsurprisingly none too pleased. “By arbitrarily labeling China, Russia, DPRK and Iran as an ‘axis’, the U.S. mirrors its own mentality of bloc confrontation onto other countries, creating ‘imaginary enemies’ and compelling others to choose sides,” the Chinese foreign ministry said in a lengthy statement it released earlier this month.
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The U.S. Army’s new Sentinel A4 radar—a revolutionary leap from the legacy Sentinel A3—will counter cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems, rotary wing and fixed wing threats, offering flexible mission performance and growth potential. Learn more. | | | | | NEW HEZBOLLAH LEADER: Hezbollah announced it has a new leader. NAIM QASSEM, the group’s deputy secretary general, is getting promoted after Israel killed his predecessor, HASSAN NASRALLAH, in a strike last month. Qassem has big shoes to fill. Nasrallah led the militant group for nearly 30 years and was considered one of the group’s most charismatic and influential figures. Qassem’s exact whereabouts are unknown, and there are unconfirmed reports he’s fled to Iran for safety from more Israeli strikes. Those reports underscore how badly damaged the group is after a lightning offensive by Israel took out most of the group’s top leaders. Israel has sent out a not-so-subtle signal it will take out Qassem if it gets the chance: Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT responded to the news on X, saying “Temporary appointment. Not for long.” IRAN STRIKE FALLOUT: Satellite imagery suggests that Israel’s Friday strike managed to disable a key Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps weapons plant. As the Associated Press’ JON GAMBRELL reports , Israel’s strike appears to have hit a major base near the city of Shahroud that was integral to Iran’s production of ballistic missiles and launches of rockets for its space program. The images are the latest fallout from the attack, which was in response to Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack. Experts assess that the damage could set back Iran’s military-industrial base by several years and limit its ability to replenish stocks it’s used against Israel and other foes in its vicinity. BIDEN ON GEORGIA: President JOE BIDEN condemned “democratic backsliding” in Georgia, marking the latest sign of Washington’s discontent with the government in Tbilisi’s handling of Saturday’s parliamentary elections. In a statement, Biden said he is “deeply alarmed by the country’s recent democratic backsliding,” pointing to a controversial foreign agent law the country passed earlier this year. Biden also noted “numerous recorded misuses of administrative resources as well as voter intimidation and coercion” and urged for an investigation into “election irregularities.” SOME PERSONNEL NEWS: The POLITICO Global Security squad is expanding, and we’re thrilled to announce the good news to our loyal readers here. JACK DETSCH joins us today from Foreign Policy, our own DAVE BROWN, GRACE MAALOUF and ALEX BURNS announced today. Jack missed Robbie too much when Robbie joined POLITICO from FP (who can blame him?), so we’re thrilled he’s joined the team here. He’ll be covering defense programs and the services. Meanwhile, SAM SKOVE will join us in November to cover what Dave describes as the “astropolitics beat.” Sam, who will join us from Defense One, will also cover the growing business around drones, AI, hypersonic missiles and the future of weapons. And of course, our own PAUL McLEARY will now be helming our coverage of the Pentagon. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team:@dave_brown24,@HeidiVogt,@RosiePerper,@nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ErinBanco,@connorobrienNH,@paulmcleary,@reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @magmill95,@johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1
| | VANCE DODGES ON UNRWA: Republican vice presidential nominee JD VANCE is keeping his cards, and those of his running mate DONALD TRUMP, close regarding the future of U.S. support for the embattled U.N. Relief and Works Agency. As our own MIA McCARTHY writes in, Vance, during a rally in Saginaw, Michigan, was asked whether a Trump administration would support Israel banning UNRWA and whether they would earmark any aid for humanitarian causes in Gaza. Vance, who reiterated campaign talking points about how Trump is a candidate of peace, did not commit to either question. “Look, my understanding about UNRWA is that you actually have explicit connections to terrorists for some of the employees on the ground there,” Vance said in response to the question. “That’s disgraceful. And that means that whether it's the entire organization or certainly some of the people on the ground, they have to do better with vetting their people so you don't actually have explicit terrorist connections.” He added that he wants to “save Palestinian civilians” but doesn't want to support “terrorists on the ground who are killing innocent Israelis in the process.” “I think those goals are totally compatible,” Vance said. “Let’s save as many Palestinian lives as possible but let's not empower the terrorists who are murdering innocent Israelis. We can do both of those things at the same time.” Vance did not say whether a Trump administration would earmark federal aid for humanitarian causes in Gaza. Vance’s equivocation follows the Israeli parliament’s approval Monday of a law banning the aid group from Gaza. UNRWA is the main provider and coordinator of humanitarian aid to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, but the U.N. organization has faced scrutiny over alleged ties between some of its employees in Gaza and Hamas. Congressional Republicans have introduced legislation that would eliminate U.S. funding for UNRWA, arguing that taxpayer funds should not be supporting a group that cannot adequately vet its employees for ties to terrorist organizations.
| | | |   | | | | | CYBERCRIME TREATY CRUSH: Senate Democrats are pushing the administration to reject the U.N. Cybercrime Treaty. As our own MAGGIE MILLER scooped in Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!), the lawmakers — Sens. RON WYDEN and JEFF MERKLEY of Oregon, CHRIS VAN HOLLEN of Maryland, TIM KAINE of Virginia, ED MARKEY of Massachusetts and CORY BOOKER of New Jersey — argue the treaty could be co-opted by Russian and China to undermine human rights. “The United States must not align itself with repressive regimes by supporting a Convention that undermines human rights and U.S. interests,” the senators wrote in a letter shared first with Morning Cybersecurity. They instead urged the Biden administration to “lead the charge at the U.N., with allies and partners, for a more balanced and rights-respecting approach to cybercrime.” The treaty, as Maggie reported last month, has created a dilemma for the U.S. — Washington doesn’t want to abdicate leadership on global cybersecurity standards to adversaries like Russia and China, but doesn’t want to endorse a flawed treaty that could be abused by authoritarian states against dissidents and journalists. ICYMI — State Department’s little-known weapon for countering foreign disinformation faces uncertain future by our own JOSEPH GEDEON
| | | PENTAGON’S AIR DEFENSE DEARTH: Global demand is creating a shortage of air defense missiles in the U.S. arsenal, per The Wall Street Journal’s NANCY YOUSSEF and GORDON LUBOLD. U.S. Interceptors are currently the most sought-after missile as the crisis in the Middle East widens following dueling strikes between Israel and Iran and its allies. But those missiles have gotten heavy use in the Red Sea recently, as a deterrent to missile strikes from Yemen’s Houthi rebels against commercial ships navigating the critical body of water. And the war in Ukraine has also strained the U.S. supply of that critical weapon. The U.S., which does not disclose the contents of its weapons stockpiles, has emphasized that force posture is taking into account the state of the arsenal. But the strain has invited serious questions about the sustainability of the U.S. arsenal in the face of multiple wars of attrition, and the ability of the U.S. to redirect resources to the Pacific if a conflict breaks out in that region over Taiwan, the Koreas, the South China Sea or another flashpoint.
| | | | RUSSIA’S RHEINMETALL RAGE: The Kremlin is warning that it may strike a major German defense manufacturer’s facilities in Ukraine as part of its military campaign against Kyiv. As our own JOSHUA POSANER reports, Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said that plants operated by Rheinmetall in Ukraine are “certainly” fair targets. The major European defense contractor, based in Dusseldorf, opened a vehicle maintenance plant in Ukraine recently and plans on opening four new facilities in Ukraine to manufacture everything from artillery ammunition to gunpowder and air defense systems. It’s not Moscow’s first missive against the company. Russian operatives plotted to assassinate the company chief executive, ARMIN PAPPERGER, earlier this year. The company has argued Kyiv needs four million rounds of artillery ammunition to replenish its stocks as Russia’s full-scale invasion enters its third year.
| | — Former Rep. WILL HURD has joined CHAOS Industries, a defense technology company, as its chief strategy officer. Hurd, a former CIA analyst, represented Texas in Congress and served on the House Intelligence, Homeland Security and Appropriations Committees. — BAYLY WINDER has been promoted to adviser to the U.S. Agency for International Development’s chief operations officer and deputy administrator for management and resources. He most recently was a special assistant at USAID. — MICHELLE POWERS KEEGAN is joining the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy as chief revenue officer. She previously was chief development officer for the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute. — The Aerospace Industries Association promoted ALISON LYNN from vice president of communications to senior vice president of external affairs. — Pillsbury’s Government Law & Strategies team added as senior policy advisers former director of the Deputy Undersecretary of the Army’s Strategy and Integration Office JUSTIN RUBIN joined as senior counsel; RACHEL GORSKY BOMBACH, previously Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN’s senior defense and foreign policy adviser; JOHN THOMAS, formerly Rep. SCOTT TAYLOR’s chief of staff. They were formerly with Kasowitz Benson Torres.
| | — ERIN BANCO, POLITICO: ‘Just because it’s legal doesn’t make it right’: The ultimate government insider contemplates life outside — EMILY FISHBEIN and HPAN JA BRANG, Foreign Policy: How to build an inclusive Myanmar post-junta — LYDIA POLGREEN, The New York Times: We’ve just had a glimpse of the world to come
| | — Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: "Assessing Global Arms Trade Transparency." — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m., "Space Warfare: Strategy, Principles and Policy” — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: "From Conflict to Crisis: Understanding Lebanon's Humanitarian Needs." — Women's Foreign Policy Group, 12 p.m.: "Civil War in Sudan: Humanitarian Crisis and the Role of Women." — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 12 p.m.: A discussion on "Insights From the Kingdom." — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 1 p.m.: What is the Future of the Axis of Resistance?," focusing on Hezbollah, Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, Assad-led Syria, the Houthis, Hamas and Yemen. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m., on "Implementing the National Defense Industrial Strategy." — New York University Reiss Center on Law and Security, 2 p.m.:The U.S. Elections on a Global Stage — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 3 p.m.: "After the Gulag: A History of Memory in Russia's Far North" — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: The global terrorism landscape Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is leading the axis of chaos against us. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who was the first to join our wolf pack of rogue states.
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