News : Biden’s sophomore slump

Friday, April 1, 2022

Biden’s sophomore slump

Apr 01, 2022

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By Ryan Lizza

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DRIVING THE DAY

For JOE BIDEN, this was one of those weeks that demonstrated the limits of the powers of the presidency.

Political scientists often like to rib pundits and the public for having a so-called "Green Lantern" view of the presidency, a theory defined by Dartmouth's Brendan Nyhan as "the belief that the president can achieve any political or policy objective if only he tries hard enough or uses the right tactics."

In reality, presidents operate under enormous constraints that often make them seem feckless in the face of intractable problems.

The news at the end of this week makes it clear that Biden has entered the "long slog" period of his first term. The bold ambitions of year one have been downsized. And even with more modest goals, unifying Democrats in Congress has become tougher — and winning over Republicans harder — than ever. Many problems, like inflation, don't have readily available solutions. And even when Biden is able to act, like on immigration, his choices are politically perilous.

Biden's sophomore slump truly set in this week:

— Covid relief. The Senate neared a deal late last night on badly-needed funds to continue to address the pandemic. Biden wanted $22 billion, and he wanted the money included in the recently enacted government funding bill. Congress declined both requests. The current deal calls for just $10 billion and has taken weeks of haggling.

Sarah Ferris, Burgess Everett and Jennifer Scholtes: "The sum — the result of days of negotiations between senior senators of both parties — would leave out a major ask from the White House. It does not include $5 billion in global vaccine efforts, drawing sharp complaints from many Democrats about the nation's preparedness to fight the pandemic abroad. Lawmakers are now talking about a figure closer to $1 billion in vaccine aid." Some House Democrats are unhappy and could scuttle the deal.

— Gas prices. Biden spent part of Thursday announcing a new plan to release 1 million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months. It was difficult to find any analyst who believed the move would have a meaningful effect on prices — including Joe Biden.

AP : "The president said it was not known how much gasoline prices could decline as a result of his move, but he suggested it might be 'anything from 10 cents to 35 cents a gallon.' Gas is averaging about $4.23 a gallon, compared with $2.87 a year ago, according to AAA."

Ben Lefebvre notes that this is the third release from the reserves in the past five months and would amount to about 5% of daily demand.

— Immigration. In one area where Biden does have the power to act, his decision is dividing Democrats and creating a political opportunity for the GOP.

WaPo : "The Biden administration's plan to end a pandemic order barring many migrants from entering the United States could trigger a rush of crossings at the border with Mexico — threatening to exacerbate a political liability for Democrats ahead of November's midterm elections.

"Top Democrats on Thursday lashed out at the administration and each other over the fate of an emergency order that the Biden and Trump administrations have used to expel undocumented immigrants during the pandemic, with some arguing for a quicker policy change and others warning not to move ahead. Republicans pounced on President Biden, accusing him of inviting chaos and danger."

Here's how Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) reacted to the news: "Oh my goodness. Just watch the news y'all put out every day, what's coming across."

And here's how Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) reacted to Manchin's reaction: "Let's not adopt the 'they are not sending their best' hate speech from the right, Joe."

— Biden's domestic agenda. There was action in the House yesterday: Democrats, joined by 12 Republicans, passed a bill to limit the cost of insulin to $35 a month. But the smallness of that bipartisan victory served to underscore how neutered Biden's agenda now is.

NYT : "[T]he insulin bill represents a substantial scaling back of Democratic ambitions to tackle high drug prices for all Americans. A broader prescription drug package, written as part of the $2.2 trillion social spending and climate bill that has stalled in the Senate, would limit price increases on all prescription drugs, improve the generosity of Medicare's drug coverage, and allow the government to negotiate directly on the price of some drugs used by Medicare patients, while also limiting insulin co-payments.

"Other parts of the broader bill would expand health insurance coverage, extending insulin coverage to diabetes patients who are uninsured. The bill that passed the House on Thursday would not improve the affordability of insulin for people who lack health insurance."

The small-ball insulin bill so far doesn't have the support of the 10 Republicans that it would need to pass the Senate.

— The DAVID WEIL fiasco. On Wednesday night, Biden lost a vote to confirm Weil, his nominee to run the Labor Department's Wage and Hour Division, when three Senate Democrats joined all 50 Republicans in opposition.

This kind of thing just doesn't happen.

"Failed nomination votes on the floor are practically unheard-of," noted our colleagues at Congress Minutes. "Nominations without sufficient support are usually pulled beforehand to save the president and his party the embarrassment." A failure like this suggests a massive blindspot in the congressional affairs office at the White House and/or a sense among some Senate Democrats that there is little to fear — and perhaps much to be gained — from opposing Biden.

— SCOTUS. Biden is on track to have Judge KETANJI BROWN JACKSON confirmed. She will likely serve on the court for decades, and the final Senate vote will be a footnote. But she will receive the backing of no more than three GOP senators, and perhaps just one. (SUSAN COLLINS is on board. MITT ROMNEY, who voted against her previously, and LISA MURKOWSKI, who voted for her, are still mulling it over. After voting for her once before, LINDSEY GRAHAM is now a no.)

A partisan vote to confirm a Supreme Court justice is hardly shocking, but it's another reminder that the president is not the Green Lantern: Biden can't simply conjure the kind of bipartisanship that he promised as a candidate.

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PLAYBOOK DEEP DIVE — On this week's podcast, we have a delightfully in-the-weeds conversation with DOUG SOSNICK, the former BILL CLINTON adviser who Playbook readers know well from his semi-regular political memos. Come for Doug's explanation of why air conditioning is one of the biggest drivers of political change. Stay for his grand theory of why (population) density is now destiny in American politics. If you love Playbook, you will love this episode of Deep Dive. Listen and subscribe here

Happy April Fool's Day. This is not a joke:

Mike Zapler, our very own Playbook editor, has been named managing editor for politics and Washington at POLITICO. He'll steer coverage of the 2022 campaign while continuing to guide Playbook among other sundry beats and products. Announcement from Matt Kaminski

Thanks for reading Playbook, which couldn't happen without Zap. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

TALK OF THIS TOWN — Washington is one of the most expensive cities in the nation, and "the old model of post-collegiate, pay-your-dues penury" long ago lost whatever charm or feasibility it ever had for young professionals — many of whom see the status quo as "something that benefits people who graduate without student loans," writes Michael Schaffer . And that, in turn, is helping to drive a trend reshaping the policymaking community: unionization efforts at left-leaning think tanks, with the groups rushing to embrace the efforts lest they earn bad PR.

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BIDEN'S FRIDAY:

— 10:45 a.m.: The president will deliver remarks about the March jobs report.

— 11:15 a.m.: Biden will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 3:25 p.m.: Biden will depart the White House for New Castle, Del., arriving at 4:20 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' FRIDAY (all times Eastern):

— 10:30 a.m.: The VP will leave D.C. for Greenville, Miss.

— 1:30 p.m.: Harris will visit Joycee's Embroidery, Fabrics, Alterations & Sewing, a small business, to tout the administration's work on economic growth in underserved communities.

— 5:10 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks at the Delta Center Stage about economic development and community lender investments.

— 6:20 p.m.: Harris will depart Greenville to return to D.C.

Comms director KATE BEDINGFIELD will brief at 2:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at 9 a.m. to take up the major bill to decriminalize marijuana, with first and last votes predicted between 10:45 a.m. and 12:15 p.m.

THE SENATE is in.

SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

"Jeopardy!" champion Amy Schneider talks with reporters in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room during a visit to the White House in honor of International Transgender Day of Visibility on Thursday, March 31. | Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS

CAWTHORN IN THEIR SIDE — The "cloud of notoriety" hanging over Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN (R-N.C.) has plumed into a full-on storm on Capitol Hill following his allegation that some of his colleagues use cocaine and attend orgies. And where his past controversies blew over relatively quickly, this one appears to have staying power, and "none of his colleagues appear willing to defend him publicly," reports Olivia Beavers. Details that stuck with us:

— He's becoming a punchline among his colleagues: After Cawthorn showed up at a fundraiser for HARRIET HAGEMAN on Wednesday night, his "own GOP colleagues spent some of the fundraiser, feet away, quietly joking at his expense, according to people in the room."

— He backed away from the "orgy" claim: When pressed by Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY during his "come to Jesus" meeting, the freshman "clarified that multiple members were not involved in orgies but did maintain that one member of Congress invited him to a sex party with his wife. Despite McCarthy and others in the room pressing him to reveal a name, Cawthorn refused, this Republican said."

— He also tried to claim he didn't use the word "orgy": "A third person familiar with the discussion said Cawthorn tried to claim he didn't use the word 'orgy,' upon which the GOP leaders in the room pointed to the tape where he in fact used the word." Related read: "Why Cawthorn got more GOP blowback than MTG," by Elana Schor

VELA MAKES A QUICK EXIT — Rep. FILEMON VELA (D-Texas) made it official Thursday: He resigned from Congress at 11:59 p.m. to head for Akin Gump. Next up: Texas Gov. GREG ABBOTT will call a special election to fill the rest of the term for a South Texas district where Republicans smell blood. It's a complicated situation: Democratic Rep. VICENTE GONZALEZ is jumping districts to run in this one come November, but he's not resigning mid-term to run in the special. Republican MAYRA FLORES is taking on Gonzalez in the general, and she is running in the special. The Texas Tribune breaks it down

ALL POLITICS

THE LAST-DITCH EFFORT TO STOP WALKER — HERSCHEL WALKER hasn't faced a single TV attack ad on his path to the Georgia GOP Senate nomination, but his primary rivals are about to dump millions of dollars into an ad campaign against him, Natalie Allison reports this morning. Their goal is to drive his expected first-place finish below 50%, forcing him into a runoff where they can highlight his history of alleged domestic abuse.

These super PAC ad buys "stand to alter the shape of a race that could decide control of the Senate," Natalie writes, as some Republicans worry Walker's history could make him a weaker candidate against Democratic Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK.

— Speaking of Georgia, CNN's Michael Warren and Gabby Orr report that "Trump is struggling to get his own allies to back former GOP Sen. DAVID PERDUE" in his race against Gov. BRIAN KEMP. "None of Trump's preferred candidates in three of the highest-profile statewide races in Georgia — Herschel Walker for U.S. Senate, BURT JONES for lieutenant governor and JODY HICE for secretary of state — have endorsed Perdue."

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: JAYAPAL TO ENDORSE PAYNE — There's a lot of attention focused on progressive challengers who take on establishment Democrats in 2022 primaries. The much-watched battle in Texas pitting JESSICA CISNEROS against Rep. HENRY CUELLAR , for example, has divided the left and center of the Democratic Party. But for all the hype about internecine Dem primaries, the truth is that many of these progressive challengers never get off the ground.

In New Jersey, DONALD PAYNE JR., who was first elected in 2012, is being challenged by IMANI OAKLEY . She's received the backing of Black Lives Matter PAC and some local progressive groups, but she has otherwise struggled to turn the race into the next version of Cisneros-Cuellar.

The establishment quickly rallied around Payne. He's been endorsed by NANCY PELOSI and New Jersey's top elected officials, Sens. BOB MENENDEZ and CORY BOOKER, as well as Gov. PHIL MURPHY. And this morning, Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL , chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, will endorse Payne as well. In the House's progressive firmament, Jayapal is known to be a bit more of an inside player than, say, members of the Squad. But she did back Cisneros against Cuellar in Texas. Her endorsement of Payne over Oakley sends a clear message that the incumbent New Jersey congressman shouldn't be a target of the left this year.

JUDGE THROWS OUT N.Y. MAPS — A Republican lower court judge "has thrown out New York's new congressional and state legislative district lines, ordering lawmakers to create a new plan within weeks and issuing a decision that would inevitably lead to a delay in New York's June primaries if the ruling is upheld on appeal," Bill Mahoney reports from Albany.

— Dave Wasserman's analysis ( @Redistrict): "Early read on NY lower court judge blocking Dems' 22D-4R gerrymander: ruling likely to be stayed on appeal, so Dems believe map will remain in place, at least for 2022. Huge stakes here, as a 'neutral' map could cost Dems 3-4 seats and erase their nationwide remap gains. … Key point here: for the NY lines to change for this fall, less GOP-friendly higher courts would not only need to agree w/ plaintiffs on the merits, but potentially alter the election calendar. Just like OH Rs, NY Dems could be saved by the bell."

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WAR IN UKRAINE

THE LATEST, via NYT: "Weeks into a relentless Russian siege of the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, there were hopeful signs on Friday amid the deepening humanitarian crisis there, with an aid convoy on its way to the port city. Peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials were also expected to resume by video link on Friday. …

"After discussions in Turkey this week, Russia vowed to reduce its presence around Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, and in the country's north. But Western defense officials have said that Russia appears to be holding ground around Kyiv and repositioning troops rather than withdrawing them. And Britain's Defense Ministry said in an assessment on Friday morning that air and missile strikes had continued in the Chernihiv and Kyiv regions."

TOP HEADLINES … "Russia's War Lacks a Battlefield Commander, U.S. Officials Say," NYT … "U.S. Sanctions Russian Tech Companies, Whole Sectors of Russian Economy," WSJ … "How the Ukraine war has Europe reassessing its relationship with China," WaPo … "Russia Demands Wikipedia Take Down Information About Ukraine War," Forbes

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

KUSHNER TESTIFIES — "JARED KUSHNER, Donald Trump's son-in-law and former White House adviser, testified Thursday before the Jan. 6 select committee," reports Nicholas Wu. "It's not immediately clear what the panel asked Kushner. … His wife, IVANKA TRUMP, has also been engaging with the select panel over her own potential testimony."

TRUMP CARDS

TRUMP BIGFOOTS HIS OWN WH PHOTOGRAPHER — As Trump's term ended, White House photographer SHEALAH CRAIGHEAD "notified Mr. Trump's aides that she intended to publish a book collecting some of her most memorable images." NYT's Eric Lipton and Maggie Haberman report on what happened next:

"First, aides to Mr. Trump asked her for a cut of her book advance payment, in exchange for his writing a foreword and helping promote the book, according to former associates of Mr. Trump. Then Mr. Trump's team asked Ms. Craighead to hold off on her book project to allow the former president to take Ms. Craighead's photos and those of other White House staff photographers and publish his own book, which is now selling for as much as $230 a copy.

"That the profits from Ms. Craighead's labor are now going into Mr. Trump's pocket has left several of Mr. Trump's former aides upset — but not exactly surprised."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

KEY PARTS OF FLORIDA VOTING LAW BLOCKED — "A federal judge on Thursday struck down key provisions of a 2021 Florida election law championed by Gov. RON DESANTIS and, in a remarkable move, ruled the state must get court approval for the next 10 years before it enacts further changes in three areas."

In his 288-page decision, chief U.S. District Judge MARK WALKER , an Obama appointee, "said the law placed restrictions on voters that were unconstitutional and discriminated against minority citizens. Those included limits on drop boxes used for mail-in voting, on giving items to voters waiting in line and new requirements placed on voter registration groups."

DeSantis "vowed to quickly appeal the ruling to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, where a majority of judges were appointed by GOP presidents."

TV TONIGHT — PBS' "Washington Week": Jacqueline Alemany, Jonathan Lemire and Nancy Youssef.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

CBS "Face the Nation": Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy … Fiona Hill.

NBC "Meet the Press": Hillary Clinton. Panel: Cornell Belcher, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Brad Todd and Amy Walter.

PBS "PBS News Weekend," relaunching this weekend with anchor Geoff Bennett: Sheryl Lee Ralph … Daryl Hall. Panel: Chuck Rosenberg, Maya Wiley and Kyle Cheney.

MSNBC "The Sunday Show": Michael Kranish … retired Lt. Gen. Stephen Twitty … Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) … Aunt Gloria Avent-Kindred … Sophia Nelson.

ABC "This Week": Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.). Panel: Chris Christie, Donna Brazile, Astead Herndon and Ruth Marcus.

FOX "Fox News Sunday," guest-anchored by Martha MacCallum: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). Panel: Ben Domenech, Susan Page and Juan Williams.

CNN "Inside Politics": Panel: Nick Schifrin and Beth Sanner. Panel: Kaitlan Collins, Laura Barrón-López and Hans Nichols.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

PLAYBOOKERS

Emmanuel Lewis, whom children of the 1980s will remember as TV's "Webster,"attended a campaign event for Herschel Walker.

Mike Gibbons guested on the "Ruthless" podcast. Asked what his last meal on Earth would be, the Ohio Senate hopeful said he'd choose "a Diet Mountain Dew and a Big Mac." (h/t Henry Gomez)

Bill Burns tested positive for the coronavirus Thursday. He met with the president (masked) on Wednesday.

The U.S. Navy announced that it will name a John Lewis-class replenishment oiler after Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Andrea Mitchell will receive the International Center for Journalists' top honor for journalists, the Founders Award for Excellence in Journalism.

IN MEMORIAM — "Gregory Alan Berry, long-time legislative counsel in the U.S. House of Representatives, died unexpectedly from hypertension on March 15 … At the time of his passing Greg had worked for nine years as the Chief Counsel/Legislative Director to Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee." Full obituary

SPOTTED at PJ Clarke's for a going-away party for VP Kamala Harris' outgoing deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh, who starts at DOD in a few weeks: Vincent Evans, Rohini Kosoglu, Jamal Simmons, Opal Vadhan, Rachel Palermo, Herbie Ziskend, Michael Fuchs, Peter Velz, Josh Hsu, Amanda Finney, Khanya Brann, Kate Berner, Chris Meagher, Michael Gwin, Tate Mitchell, William Fairfax, Eugene Daniels, Francesca Chambers, Tim Perry, Jasmine Wright, Justin Sink, Noah Bierman and Tarini Parti.

SPOTTED at a dinner with Mark Cuban on Thursday night hosted by Jamie Weinstein and Michelle Fields at their home in Woodland Normanstone: Jane Coaston, Daniel Lippman, Ryan Lizza and Olivia Nuzzi , Kaitlan Collins, Jordan Zaslav, and Josh Dawsey.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Mary Thomas has been named the new executive director of the Club for Growth Foundation. She's a former deputy assistant A.G. and general counsel for then-Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

MEDIA MOVE — Margy Slattery is now a senior editor for politics at The Atlantic. She previously was a senior editor for POLITICO Magazine.

TRANSITIONS — Joe Chelak is now a regional digital political director at the NRCC. He previously was a manager at Targeted Victory, and is an Ed Gillespie and Denver Riggleman alum. … Alvaro Huerta is now director of litigation and advocacy at the Immigrant Defenders Law Center. He previously was a senior attorney at the National Immigration Law Center. … Fireside Campaigns has recently added Courtney Beyer as comms/PR principal, Trent Schacht and Terrence Ford as digital principals, Lucille Wenegieme as VP of digital and Topher Williams as ads principal.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Samuel Alito … Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) … Rachel Maddow … NYT's Michael Crowley … NewsNation's Allison Harris … HHS' Jess Smith … Treasury's Antonio White … Julia Hahn of Sen. Bill Hagerty's (R-Tenn.) office … Nicole Harburger Stafford … Kevin McDonald of Sen. Pat Leahy's (D-Vt.) office … Wess Mitchell … Erin Butler of the House Financial Services Committee Democrats … John Palatiello … Rodrigo Heng-Lehtinen of the National Center for Transgender Equality … Mary Popadiuk … Bully Pulpit Interactive's Nicholas Rozzo … Campbell O'Connor … Matt Haller of the International Franchise Association … Frances Patano … POLITICO's Nancy Vu and Zi-Ann Lum … Nancy Lee … Elizabeth Villarreal … Natalia Brzezinski

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