🤫 Rahm’s Republicans

Plus: The Manchin means test | Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Climate Power   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team ·Oct 19, 2021 Welcome back to Sneak. 🚨 Breaking: "Jan. 6 committee recommends contempt charges against Bannon." 📅 Join Axios' Stef Kight tomorrow at 12:30pm ET for a virtual event about the status of bipartisan immigration reform and refugee resettlement policy. Guests include Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Welcome.US CEO Nazanin Ash and Welcome.US co-founder Cecilia Muñoz. Register. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,661 words ... 6 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: First look - Rahm's Republican defender Sen. Bill Hagerty. Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images   One of Donald Trump's staunchest allies, Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), will speak out publicly tomorrow in support of one of President Biden's targeted ambassadorial nominees — former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel, Axios' Jonathan Swan and Alayna Treene report. Why it matters: Progressive activists are pressuring liberal senators to oppose Emanuel's confirmation as U.S. ambassador to Japan. Support from key Republicans may end up ensuring the Democrat gets the job. Hagerty, a former ambassador to Japan under President Trump, will introduce Emanuel to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at the outset of his confirmation hearing. It's a courtesy usually reserved for a nominee's home-state senators. Hagerty is the most-junior minority member on the committee. What we're hearing: According to a source with direct knowledge of his plans, Hagerty will say: "While our political backgrounds couldn't be more different and I am sure there are many issues upon which we'd strongly disagree, through our recent discussions it has become clear that Mayor Emanuel shares my unwavering conviction that the U.S.-Japan relationship is the cornerstone of peace and prosperity in a region that is becoming ever more dangerous by the day." Between the lines: Hagerty's view is that the posting in Tokyo is critical to U.S. national security, Indo-Pacific security and global security — since Japan is a crucial ally in countering a more aggressive China. "Today we have a threat from Communist China toward our mutual friend, Taiwan," Hagerty will say, according to the source. "This is a threat that requires a strong and unified response from both the U.S. and Japan. "Mayor Emanuel understands this critical circumstance and has assured me he will do everything in the immense power of the U.S. ambassador to Japan to stand strong for Taiwan's freedom and democratic rule." A person close to Emanuel declined comment. Behind the scenes: Emanuel has been quietly lobbying senators for weeks to support his nomination and has already racked up a few Republican votes. Other Republican members of the committee were hesitant to criticize him when interviewed by Axios today. Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, said: "The concerns with Rahm by the Democrats have to do not with preparedness to be the ambassador to Japan but have to do with his role as mayor of Chicago. ... Whenever a Democrat criticizes another Democrat, I just get out of the way and let them go at it." Keep reading.     2. The China whisperer Nick Burns. Photo: Chen Mengtong/China News Service via Getty Images   Biden's nominee for ambassador to China will face his own aggressive questioning tomorrow about the most important, and potentially perilous, bilateral relationship in the world, Axios' Zachary Basu and Alayna report. Why it matters: While Nick Burns is an experienced diplomat with support on both sides of the aisle, lawmakers want to use his confirmation hearing to force the administration into some tough positions on China. Both Republicans and Democrats have called on the president to shore up support for Taiwan following a record number of Chinese military flybys. Some want an explicit commitment to come to the island's defense should China invade. Burns also faces scrutiny over his early-pandemic criticism of the lab-leak theory, as Republicans push Biden to hold China accountable for blocking a full international investigation of COVID-19's origins. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) continue to stall even the most qualified State Department nominees over the administration's approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and its handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal. What they're saying: Expect Republicans to press Burns about how much the U.S. should sacrifice to get China to support its climate goals, especially ahead of the crucial UN climate summit in Scotland beginning Oct. 31. If Burns and the administration prioritize getting a climate deal with China over other issues related to anti-competition, that would be "a terrible mistake," Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and China hawk, told Axios. Meanwhile, Sen. Bob Menendez, chairman of the committee and the most hawkish Democrat on China, had high praise for Biden's nominee: "Nick Burns is the probably the most incredibly talented career diplomat that we could send to one of the most difficult, challenging places in the world, which is China." Senate Republican aides told Axios they also expect Burns to be pressed on how the Biden administration plans to address China doing a huge amount of business with Iran, and evading U.S. sanctions, Jonathan reports. Background: Burns is currently executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group and a professor at Harvard Kennedy School. He's a widely respected former career diplomat who's served in both Republican and Democratic administrations for over three decades. If he's confirmed, Biden will look to Burns to help defrost lower-level talks, in which Chinese officials have snubbed and lectured top Biden aides. He'll ultimately be the point man for the president's top priority for the relationship: preventing "intense competition" from spiraling into outright conflict.     3. Manchin's massive means test Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is offering progressives a trade: He'll vote for their cherished social programs if they accept strict income caps for the recipients, people familiar with the matter tell Axios' Hans Nichols. Why it matters: Manchin's plan to use so-called means-testing for everything from paid family medical leave to elder and disabled care would drastically shrink the size and scope of the programs. It also would bring a key moderate vote to the progressive cause. Widespread means-testing has the potential to slash the overall price tag for the president Build Back Better agenda to the $1.5 trillion range — the most Manchin says he'll support. Between the lines: The senator's interest in means-testing the child tax credit and imposing a work requirement, reported by Axios on Sunday, was roundly criticized by progressives today. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) called an unfettered credit "the most effective, quantifiable, provable answer to child poverty that we've done in a generation," Politico reported. But moderates, including Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), appear to be open to more means-testing across all of Biden's plans to expand the social safety net. "Should folks who have means, do we want to provide them the same benefit that you'd provided somebody who's mired in poverty?" he told Axios. "No, we don't have the money to do that anyway." The big picture: Senate Democrats emerged from their weekly lunch today optimistic Manchin, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and the White House can achieve the outlines of a deal by week's end. Progressive lawmakers met with Biden at the White House, where he acknowledged that some of his programs, like two years of free community college, won't make it into the final bill. He's still hoping to persuade Manchin to spend around $2 trillion. Senate negotiators continue to struggle with how to reduce the size of the package. They're still considering funding fewer programs, but at full strength, for a full 10 years. They are also playing around with program end — or start — dates to make their price tags appear smaller. Between the lines: Manchin discussed his approach yesterday with House Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.). While he's open to cutting entire programs from the final bill, and forcing progressives to pick one of three programs for young families, he's also listening to progressive concerns. The president initially proposed spending $225 billion on paid family leave and $400 billion on home care for the elderly and disabled, but that level of spending would be impossible with an overall $1.5 trillion spending cap. The one program Manchin doesn't want to means-test: universal preschool, which is already standard in West Virginia. Keep reading.     A message from Climate Power America can be a global clean energy leader     Other countries are looking to the U.S. to lead on climate. Why it's important: Inaction will be catastrophic for America's global leadership and climate negotiations at COP26. Congress needs to pass the Build Back Better Act and its strong climate investments today.     4. FCC member targets Chinese drone giant A DJI Mavic drone hovers in front of a setting sun in July. Photo: Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images   A top U.S. communications regulator is moving to officially brand DJI — China's largest commercial drone manufacturer — a national security threat, Axios' Lachlan Markay writes. Why it matters: The action by Federal Communications Commissioner Brendan Carr is the latest policy escalation targeting a major Chinese tech firm. "We do not need an airborne version of Huawei," Carr said in a statement, referring to the Chinese telecommunications company added to the FCC's Covered List in 2019. Axios recently reported DJI sold dozens of drones to U.S. law enforcement agencies, despite the Pentagon deeming it a potential national security threat. What's happening: Carr announced today he'll move to add DJI to the Covered List, which would bar it from receiving money from the commission's Universal Services Fund. U.S. companies use money from the fund to subsidize telecommunications infrastructure. It's not clear a ban would have much of a practical impact on DJI's business. But the FCC is also considering a rule that would revoke equipment authorizations for companies on the Covered List, which could have more far-reaching consequences for DJI. Carr's move also would make the FCC just one more federal agency that's flagged alleged national security concerns associated with DJI products. In July, the Pentagon released a statement saying DJI posed a potential threat. The Commerce Department last year added the company to a U.S. export blacklist. What they're saying: "DJI drones and the surveillance technology onboard these systems are collecting vast amounts of sensitive data," Carr said. "The evidence against DJI has been mounting for years, and various components of the U.S. government have taken a range of independent actions — including grounding fleets of DJI drones based on security concerns." The other side: DJI flatly denies that its products pose any national security risk or threat to customer data. "Our systems are designed so customers never have to share their photos, videos or flight logs with anyone, including DJI," spokesperson Adam Lisberg said in a statement. "The data security architecture that protects this information has been repeatedly validated by U.S. government agencies as well as respected private cybersecurity analysts. Our customers know that DJI drones remain the most capable and most affordable products for a wide variety of uses, including sensitive industrial and government work."     5. Pic du jour Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images   Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) hugs Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) as progressives take a group photo outside the West Wing following their meeting with President Biden.     A message from Climate Power America can be a global clean energy leader     Other countries are looking to the U.S. to lead on climate. Why it's important: Inaction will be catastrophic for America's global leadership and climate negotiations at COP26. Congress needs to pass the Build Back Better Act and its strong climate investments today.   📬 Thanks for reading. A reminder that your family, friends and colleagues can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free newsletters through this link. Like this email style and format? Learn more about Axios HQ. It'll help you deliver employee communications more effectively.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: