🧸 Myth-busting the holiday toy shortage

Plus: A poll on takeout food | Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Okta   Axios What's Next By Jennifer A. Kingson, Joann Muller and Erica Pandey ·Oct 20, 2021 Will tots be weeping on Christmas morning because their elders couldn't grab that last L.O.L. Surprise doll or Pokémon must-have? Read on. Today's What's Next photo was taken by Lisa Velasquez, who was wheeling her pandemic baby in Brooklyn when she spotted it. See something interesting that says something about modern life? Snap a photo and send it to us: whatsnext@axios.com. Today's Smart Brevity count: 1,249 words ... 4.5 minutes.     1 big thing: Hot holiday toys may not be as scarce as predicted Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Good news for fretting parents: The doomsayers who've been sounding the alarm about 2021 holiday toy scarcities are being tempered by sanguine optimists. Why it matters: While shopping early is definitely a good idea, fears of empty shelves and online shortages are probably overblown, given how skilled the toy industry has grown at managing global supply chains and pandemic-fueled demand for its products. What they're saying: "I actually happen to think it's going turn out to be a better Christmas than some are painting it," Linda Bolton Weiser, managing director and senior research analyst at D.A. Davidson, tells Axios. "Some are painting it like there's going be no toys, and I just don't think it's that extreme, because the companies have dealt in many years with different supply chain challenges." Barron's notes that "December outages of hit toys are nothing new" and says that predictions of "Charlie Brown Christmas trees surrounded by few boxes and bows" are "decidedly overblown." "Our conversations with retailers, manufacturers, shippers, and Wall Street forecasters indicate that businesses are learning to cope with bottlenecks," Barron's says. Where it stands: Toy sales have been on fire lately: NPD reports that the industry's sales increased by 15% — to $22.45 billion — in the first half of 2021 compared with the same time period in 2020. (They were up 28% vs. the same period in 2019.) For toymakers, the pressure is on: "Roughly half of all retail toy sales come in the weeks leading up to Christmas," per the Wall Street Journal. "Toys that arrive too late won't sell until they are heavily discounted after the holidays." Prior crises — like a major dock workers' strike in 2015 — helped teach toymakers important management lessons. "They figured out ways," says Bolton Weiser. "They got their stuff on the top of the [container] ship, they took steps to accelerate the unloading." Some experts — including toy company executives — have warned that toy prices will rise because of short supplies, but yea-sayers scoff, saying that cutthroat competition will prevent it. Yes, but: Who knows whether to expect a best-case or worst-case scenario. "There's really no way for us or manufacturers to predict what items or categories will sell out when — and which items will be restocked in time for the holidays once they do sell out," says Maddie Michalik, senior editor of the Toy Insider. Her best advice is "to assume that everything is selling out" and grab what you want when you find it. Among the three biggest toy retailers, "Amazon has fewest out-of-stocks of the hottest toys, followed by Walmart, and then Target," says Bolton Weiser. The bottom line: As the holiday shopping season wears on, pickings grow slimmer. "The objective of both retailers and the toy companies is to have very little inventory left on Dec. 26," Michalik says. Share this story.     2. Another way to do takeout Monica packs her own takeout at Chengdu Aroma in Chicago. Photo: Colin McMahon   A few weeks ago I walked into my local Sichuan restaurant with a bunch of empty plastic containers and a weird question, Monica Eng writes in Axios Chicago. "Would it be OK if I ordered my food for here, but then packed it all in my containers to go?" Why it matters: The pandemic has seen a sharp rise in single-use plastic, including food containers, as people try to support restaurants with takeout. But less than 9% of U.S. plastic is recycled. Plastic production and incineration contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. The most recent EPA data shows the U.S. dumped 10 million tons of plastic into landfills in 2018. Chicago Department of Public Health officials confirm that the only legal way for patrons to use their own containers at a restaurant is to pack the food themselves. What happened: After some discussion, the staffer agreed and told me to come back in 15 minutes, when I would find my five dishes plated on the bar. I returned to find him placing the final dishes next to others already covered with plastic wrap. I took out my big spoon, packed the food into my containers, popped them in my bag and walked home for a nice dinner. Meanwhile, my patient partner Colin took a video of my antics as requested. Questions for restaurateurs: Would you allow customers to pack their own takeout at your place? And, if so, what would be the least disruptive way to do it? You can reply to this email. Question for diners: Would you patronize restaurants more if they let you easily pack food in your own containers? You can respond to this survey here. Share this story.     3. The latest "third workplace" is at Saks Saks Fifth Avenue's windows decorated for Christmas. Photo: Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images   If you're looking for a luxurious alternative to the home office, you can now work from a swanky space designed by Saks Fifth Avenue, Erica Pandey writes. The big picture: As we've reported, the pandemic has given rise to "third workplaces" — places to work that aren't the home or the office — for the growing ranks of people who don't feel like commuting to their offices but want to get out of the house. Now department stores are capitalizing on this trend. What's happening: For the hefty membership fee of $300 a month (or a steep $50 day pass), you can join SaksWorks — Saks Fifth Avenue's co-working network, the New York Times reports. The spaces have upscale perks, such as hydroponic gardens and gyms equipped with Peloton bikes. SaksWorks has two Manhattan locations and is planning to expand to wealthy suburbs on Long Island, in Westchester and in Connecticut. They're managed by WeWork — which has already been leaning into "third workplaces" by turning into an Uber for offices and allowing customers to rent space by the hour at WeWork locations around the world. The bottom line: People love remote work, but they're getting tired of working from home, creating opportunities for all sorts of companies — from retailers to restaurants — to get into the office space business.     A message from Okta Give your workforce secure access to what they need the most     With Okta, your organization can secure and enable employees, contractors, and partners --- wherever they are, and whatever they do. Your people are your future. Protect them. Learn why companies around the world trust Okta for workforce identity.     4. First look: The Smithsonian explores visions of the future(s) A rendering of an exhibit hall in the forthcoming "FUTURES: Beacons" at the Smithsonian Art + Industries Building in Washington, D,C. Photo: Courtesy of LAB at Rockwell Group   "FUTURES" — a multimedia museum experience that teases out possibilities for the future — will open Nov. 20 at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., writes Bryan Walsh of Axios Future. Why it matters: At a moment when public attitudes toward the future can lean toward the dystopian, "FUTURES" aims to open up visitors to various scenarios that they can help create through their choices. What's happening: Axios was given a first look at "FUTURES: Beacons," a part of the overall exhibition, which will be on view at the Smithsonian's Art + Industries Building (AIB). The name is specifically plural, says David Tracy of the architectural studio LAB at Rockwell Group: "It's not 'the future' — it's 'futures,'" he says. "It suggests there are many possible paths that a future can take." Read the full story.     5. Reader photo of the day Photo: Lisa Velasquez   What's Next: Cat cafés reopen Lisa Velasquez writes: "This is a photo of a cat café in Brooklyn Heights, Brooklyn. I couldn't go in because I found it while taking my unvaccinated infant for a walk, but it looks super fun. "The first time I saw it was when it was closed during the pandemic. I had a pandemic baby, and my OB-GYN is located near this particular cat café. So when I was pregnant, my husband parked in front of it while waiting for me in the car during one of my appointments. "We were so excited that this existed, and we were hoping it would make it through COVID! Hoping to actually get to go in soon." Go deeper: Portland's only cat café reopens, immediately adopts out all its cats     A message from Okta Protect customers with Okta's modern identity solutions     Retailers around the world use Okta to power their most important customer-facing initiatives. Here's why: Engaging your customers online is essential – and keeping them safe is crucial. Learn how Okta can support your most important customer-facing initiatives.   Thanks for reading! If this email was forwarded to you, feel free sign up for Axios What's Next here. Like this email style and format? Learn more about Axios HQ. It'll help you deliver employee communications more effectively.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: