| | | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Thursday. 2020 BY THE NUMBERS — So far, 2,954,359 vote-by-mail ballots have been cast for the November election, according to the latest information on the state Division of Elections website. Of those, 1,428,664 have come from Democrats and 900,826 have come from registered Republicans. Overall, there are 2.9 million mail ballots requested but not yet returned. Of those, more than 1.2 million are held by Democrats and nearly 927,000 are with Republicans. A total of 720,968 people have voted at an early voting site. Of those 279,968 were Democrats and 321,007 are Republicans. Big question — Will early voting make or break Republicans this time around in Florida? No mail-in ballot this time — President Donald Trump — who is returning to the state later this week — plans to early vote on Saturday and livestream it as he encourages his supporters to do the same. Gov. Ron DeSantis took to social media late Wednesday to also plug early voting. In a video, DeSantis said "Bottom of the ninth — and Florida Republicans are on deck." Switched — This is a just another example of the role reversal at work in Florida. It used to be Democrats making a concentrated push for early voting, including their "Souls to the Polls" events on the two Sundays before Election Day. Now Democrats have focused a lot of energy on getting their voters to cast ballots by mail, which has become a punching bag for the president (although he maintains it's OK in his adopted home state). Edge — That Democratic vote-by-mail effort has been largely successful and helped the party put together a significant advantage over Republicans (more than 500,000 at last official count). But here come the Republicans who were already shifting away from vote by mail to voting in person in recent elections. They have been showing up in droves during the first three days of early voting. Expect new figures to be released this morning that show roughly 168,000 GOP voters cast ballots on Wednesday — significantly higher than Republican early voting four years ago. Coming around the bend — Republicans are relying on early voting to cut into Democrats' mail-in lead and then swing past them on Election Day. Democrats, however, are planning on mounting their own early voting offensive. The Democratic National Committee is launching a new ad today in the Miami market with former President Barack Obama who says "It is going to be close and it could come down to a handful of voters just like you. I'm asking you to bring this thing home. Leave no doubt. Vote early." Obama is also scheduled to come to Florida this weekend to campaign on behalf of Democratic nominee Joe Biden. It's a race to the finish. — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis. The daily rundown — Between Tuesday and Wednesday, the number of Florida coronavirus cases increased by 2,145 (nearly 0.3 percent), to 762,534; active hospitalizations increased 46 (2.2 percent), to 2,125; deaths rose by 105 (nearly 0.7 percent), to 16,210. | | | | THIS WEEK - NEW EPISODES OF POLITICO'S GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST : The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, but many of those issues exploded over the past year. Are world leaders and political actors up to the task of solving them? Is the private sector? Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe now for Season Two, launching Oct. 21. | | | | |
|  | TRAIL MIX | | FOREIGN INTRUSION — "Feds point to Iran, Russia for emails urging Floridians to vote for Trump," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon : Iran and Russia may have been behind hundreds of emails sent in at least five Florida counties pressuring voters to support President Donald Trump as part of a broader campaign to influence the U.S. electorate, federal officials described Wednesday night. "Two foreign actors, Iran and Russia, have taken specific actions to influence public opinion relating to our elections," Director of National Intelligence Dan Ratcliffe said during a hastily scheduled news conference. "First, we have confirmed that some voter registration information has been obtained by Iran and separately by Russia. Across the state — Along with Brevard and Alachua counties, similar emails have been sent to voters in Collier, Escambia, and Citrus Counties, each of which is overwhelmingly Republican-leaning. Florida's more populated counties, such as Duval, Hillsborough and Miami-Dade Counties, are not yet reporting any email threats, according to election officials in those counties. The Florida Department of State, which oversees state elections, said that it was "aware" of the emails but that there has "been no breach to Florida's Voter Registration database." Spokesman Mark Ard said "while public data files contain voting history ... it does not include any information that discloses how a voter voted in any contest. The secrecy of the ballot is maintained throughout the voting process." LOTS OF QUESTIONS — "Iran behind threatening pro-Trump emails to U.S. voters, feds say," by POLITICO's Eric Geller: Some Democrats immediately questioned whether [Director of National Intelligence Dan] Ratcliffe, a Trump loyalist who has been accused of using his powerful post to boost the president's political fortunes, was distorting the Iranian situation. "The e-mails told voters to support Trump but the DNI is sure the intent was to hurt Trump?" Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) tweeted. "That's a dubious claim that seems motivated by the Administration's desperation to distract from Russian interference and create false equivalencies between Russian and Iranian efforts." Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on MSNBC that intelligence officials did not claim during a classified briefing that Iran had been trying to undermine Trump." CLOSER — "Obama hypes early voting in new DNC Florida ad," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: Barack Obama is being tapped to gin up support for voting ahead of Election Day in Florida, putting the former president at the center of a new TV ad campaign kicking off in the nation's biggest swing state. "It is going to be close and it could come down to a handful of voters just like you," Obama says in the new Democratic National Committee ads set to start running Thursday. "I'm asking you to bring this thing home. Leave no doubt. Vote early." The ad, a copy of which was provided to POLITICO, does not mention Joe Biden or any overtly partisan themes. Instead, it focuses exclusively on the DNC's get-out-the-vote messaging. "The 2020 election is not a few weeks away," Obama says in the ad. "It is already here." SALVAGE EFFORT — "Trump taps Ivanka for a rescue mission: Win back suburban women," by POLITICO's Anita Kumar: The Trump campaign's last-ditch effort to win back the suburban women fleeing the president in the polls has fallen to one person: Ivanka Trump. In the past six weeks, Trump has made personal appeals for her father at 17 campaign stops, engaging in intimate question-and-answer sessions where she tells stories about the president. She's made stops at local businesses to pose with children in Halloween costumes. She's bought cider and doughnuts. She's rolled out bread for baking… Ivanka Trump has visited 10 battleground states — Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona — and expects to campaign in Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina again before the election, one Trump political aide said. — "Ivanka Trump's Naples and Fort Myers visit, from the set-up to the rally," by Fort Myers News-Press' Frank Gluck, Kaitlin Greenockle and Janine Zeitlin | 
Ivanka Trump, daughter and adviser to President Donald Trump, visits the Pizza By Fuscos during a campaign stop on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2020, in Acworth, Ga. | (Brynn Anderson/AP Photo) | TARGETING — "Trump has struggled with seniors. Can he make up the difference with Hispanic voters?" by Miami Herald's Francesca Chambers and David Smiley: "The most recent visits to Florida by President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence illustrate the reliance of the Republican ticket on two voting blocs seemingly headed in opposite political directions this election: seniors and Latinos. Pence on Thursday stumped in Miami-Dade County with Hispanic voters who, compared to four years ago, have shown a greater willingness to bubble in Trump's name on the ballot. The following day, Trump promised seniors in Fort Myers that a COVID-19 vaccine would be available first to seniors, who appear to be pulling back from the president amid the pandemic." BELLWETHER — "Florida's Pinellas County is one to watch on election night," by Associated Press' Tamara Lush: "Latricia Robinson donned a surgical mask and marched into the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections office on a recent day to drop off her ballot, one of more than 135,000 people in the Florida county to vote early so far this election season. The 48-year-old St. Petersburg resident said the pandemic, racial tension and the harsh overall tenor of politics all weighed heavily on her this year. 'This is the first time I've seen the world in such an uproar," she said after voting for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. 'We're in chaos, and that's not the way to go.'" THE BOTTOM LINE — "COVID-19 overshadows Obamacare in campaign," by News Service of Florida's Christine Sexton: "U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, appearing Wednesday on Fox News, insisted that most people are not blaming Trump. 'The vast majority of people understand the president didn't create this virus, the president didn't bring this virus to America,' Rubio, R-Fla., said on the show 'Fox and Friends.' The net result of the back-and-forth, said Tallahassee-based political strategist Ryan Tyson, is that fighting the coronavirus is now 'hyper, hyper-partisan. When it comes to the singularly most important issue, it's extremely partisan. Everything that people are acting on is for partisan purposes is how it appears to me,' he said." CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — Mike Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC started running a statewide ad called "Picture" that assails President Donald Trump's behavior during the coronavirus pandemic …. Rep. Stephanie Murphy said she is investing $250,000 in Democratic get-out-the vote efforts in Seminole County, including digital and mail GOTV efforts. She called Seminole County — where there is a highly competitive state Senate race underway — "an epic battleground for Florida's future" … Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26 is launching a new ad called "We Can Rebuild" that contends Democrats will help rebuild the economy as opposed to Republicans. The campaign said they will spend at least $1 million on the ad buy …. The National Republican Congressional Committee is out with a new Spanish-language ad that goes after Mucarsel-Powell over her husband's business dealings and contends she sides with socialists in Washington, D.C. .... Bend the Arc: Jewish Action has launched a digital ad called "Getting to Know Matt Gaetz" criticizing the Republican congressman, focusing primarily on his decision to invite an alt-right figure who has been accused of denying the Holocaust …. Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist in FL-13 touts his work to lower taxes on Social Security and help veterans. — "President Trump to rally supporters in The Villages on Friday," by Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello — "President Trump will hold 'Make America Great Again Victory Rally' in Pensacola," by Pensacola News Journal's Jim Little — "Biden takes commanding 51-point lead over Trump among Florida Jewish voters, new poll shows," by Sun Sentinel's Anthony Man — "Race between Rutherford and Deegan pits two well-known candidates for Congress," by Florida Times-Union's David Bauerlein — "Orlando state Rep. Anna Eskamani calls ad by opponent Jeremy Sisson 'transphobic,'" by Orlando Sentinel's Ryan Gillespie | | CORONAVIRUS UPDATES | | HMM — "Florida to investigate all COVID-19 deaths after questions about 'integrity' of data," by Sun Sentinel's Marc Freeman, Andrew Boryga and Cindy Krischer Goodman: "Florida, which has reported the deaths of over 16,400 people from COVID-19, now says the public may not be able to trust any of those numbers. The state Department of Health on Wednesday ordered an investigation of all pandemic fatalities, one week after House Speaker Jose Oliva slammed the death data from medical examiners as "often lacking in rigor" and undermining "the completeness and reliability of the death records." House Democrats then blasted the House Republicans' report as an insult to coronavirus victims and an attempt "to downplay the death toll." The political battle over COVID-19 death reporting — and now the new review — follows Gov. Ron DeSantis' push for a full reopening of the state's businesses and tourist attractions and a picture of the virus being so under control, Tampa should host a packed Super Bowl in early February." — "Port Canaveral cruise workers rally for return to work," by Orlando Sentinel's Lina Ruiz — "Florida Gators hope to return to practice after COVID-19 spike. It won't be easy," by Tampa Bay Times' Matt Baker | | | | GLOBAL PULSE, GLOBAL PURPOSE: At a high-stakes moment when global health has become a household concern, it is pivotal to keep up with the politics and policy driving change. Global Pulse connects leaders, policymakers and advocates to the people and politics driving global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today for this new weekly newsletter. | | | | |
| | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | CALLS TO LOCK THEM UP — "Palm Beach County recovery advocates to Sackler family: You belong in jail," by Palm Beach Post's Hannah Morse: "Two Palm Beach County recovery advocates have scathing words for members of the Sackler family, who own the company that makes the highly addictive drug OxyContin: You belong in jail. The message from Maureen Kielian of Southeast Florida Recovery Advocates and County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay comes after the Justice Department announced Wednesday that Purdue Pharma would plead guilty to three federal criminal charges and agreed to an $8 billion settlement." | | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | ADD IT UP — "Utility's hurricane costs estimated at $200 million," by News Service of Florida's Jim Saunders: "Gulf Power faced an estimated $200 million in costs to restore electricity after Hurricane Sally hammered parts of the Panhandle last month, the utility's parent company told analysts Wednesday during a quarterly earnings call. While the estimate remains preliminary, Gulf likely will be able to seek approval in the coming months from the Florida Public Service Commission to recoup the money from customers." | | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | OBSTACLE REMOVED — "State attorney drops objection to releasing secret Epstein documents," by Palm Beach Post's John Pacenti: "Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg has reversed course and now says he would welcome the release of secret grand jury testimony that may shine light on why a predecessor went so easy on sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein. The decision by the county's top prosecutor removes one impediment to the release of the testimony. The incoming Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller, Joe Abruzzo, also says he's open to releasing the records if he can do so legally. But the county's chief circuit judge, Krista Marx, has ruled that The Palm Beach Post does not have the right under state law to pursue public access to the 2006 grand jury transcripts that resulted in just one charge against Epstein of solicitation of a prostitute." JOURNALISM — "Florida regulators to seek more details about injuries suffered on theme park rides," by Orlando Sentinel's Gabrielle Russon: "State regulators plan to talk with Florida's biggest theme parks about making their visitor injury reports more accurate after an Orlando Sentinel investigation revealed that Universal Orlando had disclosed a tourist's broken neck as 'numbness' and a child's broken foot and leg bones as 'foot pain.'" NO SUPPORT — "Martin County School Board dodges LBBTQ+ history month vote, adopts broad inclusion measure," by Treasure Coast Newspapers Sommer Brugal: "The School Board Tuesday avoided a vote to recognize October as LGBTQ+ History Month, opting instead to reinforce the district's commitment to diversity and inclusion for all students and staff. The LGBTQ+ recognition died before prompting an official vote after board members remained silent when it was proposed by board member Victoria Defenthaler. To receive a vote, a motion needs support from at least one other member." — "Gay teacher fired from Adventist school in Longwood that accepts state scholarships," by Orlando Sentinel's Leslie Postal and Kate Santich — "Central Florida Catholics express joy, surprise after Pope endorses same-sex civil unions," by Orlando Sentinel's Lisa Maria Garza 'TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE' — "West Palm Beach Proud Boys leader: Trump bump 'awesome,'" by Palm Beach Post's Christine Stapleton: "Bobby Pickles — whose real name is not Bobby Pickles — is a college graduate, owner of a screen printing business and head of the West Palm Beach chapter of the Proud Boys. In the wake of the uproar over President Donald Trump's call for the Proud Boy to "stand back and stand by" during the first presidential debate Sept. 29, Pickles, 40, wants to make one thing clear: The Proud Boys are in Palm Beach County and they are not a hate group or white supremacist organization. 'I am a textbook example of someone who is not a white supremacist,' said Pickles, adding that he 'surrounds' himself 'with non-white people.'" | | ODDS, ENDS, AND FLORIDA MEN | | — "Mix-up kept pregnant inmate in jail until after she gave birth," by Sun Sentinel's Rafael Olmeda and Austen Erblat : "The Broward Sheriff's Office tried to have a pregnant inmate released from jail before she gave birth, but a mix-up kept her in custody until it was too late, Broward Sheriff Gregory Tony said in a letter to the woman's lawyers this week. In a letter to Chief Assistant Public Defender Gordon Weekes, Tony said his office tried to find "an alternative to incarceration" for Stephanie Bretas, 28, who was in custody on a burglary charge from Sept. 6 through Sept. 29. BIRTHDAYS: Chris Doolin of Christian B. Doolin & Associates
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