Friday, October 9, 2020

FX Strategy 09 Oct 2020

 
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FX Strategy 09 Oct 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NZD and NOK are the top gainers today, up 0.42% and 0.23% versus the dollar while JPY and USD are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.028, down -0.4bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.536, down -0.9bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.769, down -1.0bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.277, down -1.2bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading weaker today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23619.69, down -0.12%. The Hang Seng was trading at 24078.0, down -0.48%. In the European equities, indices were trading stronger today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13082.8, up 0.31%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6009.15, up 0.52%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3269.25, up 0.41%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5980.5, up 0.35%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3450.38, up 0.37%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3262.0, up 0.31%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading firm today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 41.24, up 0.12%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 43.38, up 0.09%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, overnight we have already had the RBA Financial Stability Review, Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Actual 54.8 v Forecast 53) and the Interest Rate Decision from India with rates, as expected, remaining at 4%. This morning we have also had multiple UK data releases for August with GDP MoM (Actual 2.1% v Forecast 4.9%), GDP YoY (Actual -9.3% v Forecast -7.2%), Balance of Trade (Actual £1.4B v Forecast £0.6B), Construction Output YoY (Actual -13% v Forecast -9.8%), Industrial Production YoY (Actual -6.4% v Forecast -4.0%) and Manufacturing Production YoY (Actual -8.4% v Forecast -6.2%).

 

This afternoon, we start at 12:00 GMT with September data Brazilian Inflation Rate YoY (Previous 2.44% v Forecast 2.9%) and MoM (Previous 0.24% v Forecast 0.4%). At 12:30 GMT we have more September data releases for Canada, with Employment Change (Previous 245.8K v Forecast 150K), Full Time Employment Change (Previous 205.8K v Forecast 100K), Participation Rate (Previous 64.6% v Forecast 64.7%), Part Time Employment Change (Previous 40K v Forecast 50K) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 10.2% v Forecast 9.9%). US Wholesale Inventories MoM for August follows at 14:00 GMT (Previous -0.1% v Forecast 0.5%) and concludes data releases for the week.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1734 for 1.1807
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1734 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1807 enter at 1.1758. Below 1.1734 to open 1.1709

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2933 for 1.2974
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.2933 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.2974 enter at 1.2947. Below 1.2933 to open 1.2895

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 106.12 for 105.74
Short-term view: USDJPY resistance comes in at 106.12 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 105.74 enter at 105.99. Above 106.12 to open 106.21

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7154 for 0.7201
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7154 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7201 enter at 0.717. Below 0.7154 to open 0.7138

 
 
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