Thursday, August 20, 2020

FX Strategy 20 Aug 2020

 
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FX Strategy 20 Aug 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, CHF and EUR are the top gainers today, up 0.22% and 0.16% versus the dollar while GBP and SEK are the top losers, down -0.17% and -0.02% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.027, flat 0.0bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.222, down -0.8bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.482, down -1.2bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.661, down -2.4bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading weak today. The Kospi was trading at 2274.22, down -3.66%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 22880.62, down -1.0%. The Hang Seng was trading at 24703.0, down -1.89%. In the European equities, indices were trading weaker today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3273.75, down -1.32%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6038.1, down -1.21%. The DAX 30 was trading at 12825.75, down -1.17%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3357.62, down -0.45%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3270.0, down -1.27%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6032.5, down -1.13%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 42.75, down -0.42%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 45.06, down -0.68%.

 

Earlier we have seen German PPI data for July, with MoM (Actual 0.2% v Forecast 0.3%) and YoY (Actual -1.7% v Forecast -1.7%). This morning, we look forward to EA Construction Output YoY for June (Previous -11.9% v Forecast -7.8%) at 09:00 GMT, with UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders for August following at 10:00 GMT (Previous -46 v Forecast -30). At 11:00 GMT, The Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) will release their Interest Rate decision, with expectations to keep at the current 8.25%. At 11:30 GMT the ECB will release their Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts alongside Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the Reserve Bank of India.

 

Moving into the afternoon session, at 12:30 GMT we have US weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 963K v Forecast 890K) and Continuing Claims (Previous 15486K v Forecast 14900K) alongside Phili Fed Manufacturing Index for August (Previous 24.1 v Forecast 20). At 13:00 GMT we have Russian Unemployment Rate for July (Previous 6.2% v Forecast 6.2%). Bank of Canada's Beaudry is speaking at 16:00 GMT followed by Fed's Daly at 17:00 GMT.

 

This evening at 23:00 GMT we have UK Gfk Consumer Confidence for August (Previous -27 v Forecast -24) followed by Japan Inflation Rate YoY for July (Previous 0.1% v Forecast 0.1%) at 23:30 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1874 for 1.1795
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1874 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1795 enter at 1.1855. Above 1.1874 to open 1.1917

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.79 for 106.48
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 105.79 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 106.48 enter at 105.99. Below 105.79 to open 105.43

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7212 for 0.7149
Short-term view: AUDUSD resistance comes in at 0.7212 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 0.7149 enter at 0.7191. Above 0.7212 to open 0.7245

 
 
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