Friday, September 9, 2022

Cold feet for GOP on marriage vote?

Presented by Sallie Mae®: A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
Sep 09, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Huddle

By Katherine Tully-McManus

Presented by Sallie Mae®

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) speaks to reporters in the Senate basement on Sept. 8 2022.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) speaks with reporters as she walks through the U.S. Capitol Sept. 7, 2022. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO)

What's next for the bipartisan effort to codify the right to same-sex marriage in the Senate? The path ahead isn't looking as clear as advocates had hoped.

The bill needs 10 Republican votes to escape a Senate GOP filibuster and the key to that looks to be how the bill, and some amendments that are in the works, address religious liberty for people opposed to same-sex marriages.

Amendments on tap: Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) are working on an amendment on religious freedom to ensure the 1993 religious freedom law (originally sponsored by then-Rep. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) would remain intact. The move is aimed at shoring up support from conservatives. Baldwin told Marianne on Thursday that the amendment "confirms the status quo remains."

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said he's currently working with the bill's proponents on the religious liberty element, "and we'll see whether we make sufficient progress or not."

Conservative contender: A competing amendment is expected from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), focused on religious exemptions to same-sex marriage protections.

"I don't see 10 Republicans," said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a former GOP whip and a close adviser to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). "I assume if people were inclined to support it, they would have already declared in support of it."

The measure to lock in the right to same sex marriage earned the votes of 47 House Republicans back in July. A stumble in the Senate would be a significant shift. One political calculation is that if the bill is tanked, Democrats will use the episode as a powerful example of the GOP blocking legislation on an issue broadly popular with the American public, a messaging gift just before the midterms to accompany a potential legislative loss.

But supporters are holding out hope for the bill's success. A floor vote is expected the week of Sept. 17. Marianne touched base with many GOP senators to get a gist of the whip count more than a week out from the vote: Same-sex marriage bill teeters on verge of GOP filibuster

 

A WOMEN RULE CONVERSATION ON LEADING FROM THE GROUND UP: Join POLITICO's Women Rule on Sept. 15 for conversations focused on creating and leading sustainable, healthy and inclusive communities. The program will feature a Member Exchange panel followed by a keynote discussion exploring the most pressing issues facing women in their communities and women in leadership roles who are best positioned to solve these problems. REGISTER HERE.

 
 

GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, September 9. Batten down the hatches, the House returns next week.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) sits in the Senate subway, talking to reporters outside the trolley car.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol Sept. 8, 2022. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO)

RUBIO'S MAR A LAGO TIGHTROPE — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is trying to thread a needle on the FBI search of Donald Trump's home in his home state. He's juggling a reelection race that is tightening — Democrat Val Demings is just 2 points behind in recent polls — with his role as the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, which prides itself on bipartisanship and cool-headed inquiry (not to mention proper handling of classified material).

A little of both: He has quietly joined with Democrats to demand an assessment of the national security threat posed by Trump's possession and handling of the top-secret documents removed by the FBI during the search. But in public, he's joining members of his own party -- and courting loyal Trump supporters' votes -- by downplaying the investigation into Trump as a "storage issue" and questioning the Justice Department's grounds for the search warrant.

"The people who hate Donald Trump are happy about the raid. The people who support him were not," Rubio told Andrew this week, putting himself in a third category: "A lot of other people are wondering about the wisdom of undertaking such an effort, an unprecedented effort, before having exhausted every other opportunity or every other potential option they would have."

Republicans contend that because Congress was never briefed, the threat to national security posed by the documents being unsecured at Mar a Lago couldn't have been serious and that perhaps they were not even classified.

Warner draws a line: "Until the size or the extent of the reach becomes clear," Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) said, "I don't know how you pre-warn [Congress]." Warner said that Republicans refusing to acknowledge the classified nature of the material are "kind of beyond the pale."

Andrew has more on Rubio navigating the Trump search that unfolded in his home state.

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QUEEN AND CONGRESS — The flags at the Capitol are flying at half-staff to honor the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. When the House returns next week, they are expected to pass a bereavement resolution and adjourn in her honor.

Talk about timing… A delegation of Rules Committee and Modernization Committee members were in London when the news of the Queen's death broke. Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) offered a dispatch from the streets of London.

One of the most amusing remembrances on Capitol Hill on Thursday came from Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.). "I've been by Balmoral before, but never was invited in," Shelby told reporters. "It's near Aberdeen and I just wanted to shoot, you know? But not in Balmoral," he clarified. He met the queen when she visited Congress in 1991, attended both her speech and a luncheon with her. "You know, she had a lot of class," Shelby said of the queen. Nancy has more reaction from lawmakers.

BERNIE BIG MAD AT PERMITTING PLAN — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) hit the Senate floor Thursday (his birthday!) to hammer Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) side deal with Senate Majorite Leader Schumer on energy permitting legislation, calling it "a huge giveaway to the fossil fuel industry." The deal, which the White House is on board with, could speed approval for the $6.6 billion Mountain Valley gas pipeline crossing West Virginia and expedite approvals for new clean energy projects. It could also make significant changes to landmark environmental law, like limiting the power of states under the Clean Water Act and limiting project reviews to two years. Burgess has more on the latest Manchin-Bernie tussle.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

 
 
HUDDLE HOTDISH

SUPER SPELLERS The National Press Club holds its annual spelling bee next week, where at least five House lawmakers are slated to compete against a roster of journalists. So far, confirmed lawmakers include: Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.), Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and Jared Huffman (D-Calif.). They'll face POLITICO's own Eric Geller, Amy Wang from The Washington Post, Farnush Amiri from The Associated Press and Ramtin Arablouei. co-host of the NPR podcast Throughline.

The event is at 7 p.m. on Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2022 at the National Press Club. Tickets are on sale now.

QUICK LINKS 

In Orange County, a House Race Is Testing What Asian Americans Want, from Stephanie Lai at The New York Times

Interior Department renaming sites containing Native slur, from David Jordan at CQ Roll Call.

Rep. Katie Porter's university housing deal draws scrutiny, from Brian Slodysko at The Associated Press

Long read: When a man with a pistol shows up outside a congresswoman's house, from Ruby Cramer at The Washington Post

TRANSITIONS 

Vanessa Valdivia will serve as first lady Jill Biden's new press secretary. Valdivia most recently served as the communications director for Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.).

Annie (Humphrey) Woerpel is starting as the director of federal advocacy for PhRMA – Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America – later this month. She was previously handling healthcare and science-related issues for Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.). She is also a Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) alum.

 

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TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House convenes at 9 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The Senate is out.

AROUND THE HILL

Quiet Friday before both chambers are back in action next week.

TRIVIA

THURSDAY'S WINNER: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was both the winner and subject of yesterday's trivia. (No wonder he knew the answer!) In 1965, Sen. Howard Baker introduced two entry level senate staffers who would go on to become Senators themselves and close friends and allies: Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee.

TODAY'S QUESTION from Sen. McConnell: Queen Elizabeth II visited Kentucky several times and a number of horse races/farms. Which Thoroughbred racing track – and when – did she visit to celebrate the race named in her honor?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus

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