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TQ Morning Briefing |
Trump called off strikes and said an Iran deal is in "final shape." The market surged 930 points. Oil fell to its lowest level since April. SpaceX starts trading today at a $1.77 trillion valuation. And wholesale inflation hit its highest annual rate since late 2022 on the same morning nobody noticed. |
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The market chose peace over inflation. |
Thursday was the sharpest reversal of the year. The Dow jumped more than 930 points. The Nasdaq rallied north of two and a half percent. The Russell led, up more than three percent. Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran. Then he said a deal was in "final shape." |
Oil cratered. Chips reversed hard. Micron (MU) and AMD (AMD) surged. Intel (INTC) jumped on a double upgrade from BofA, which cited the coming wave of agentic CPU demand. Lam Research (LRCX) ran sharply. |
Oracle (ORCL) didn't join. It fell more than eight percent on the best tape in weeks. It beat on both lines. But it also guided $70 billion in capex next year with another $40 billion raise. Cash flow was deeply negative. The market drew the line fast: if you make chips, you rallied. If you fund AI with borrowed money, you didn't. |
Asia confirmed it this morning. Seoul's KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker to the upside. Samsung jumped more than ten percent. The Nikkei rose sharply toward fresh highs. |
Market Implication |
If the deal holds through the weekend and oil stays below $90, the war premium built since February starts to crack for real. Energy names lose their bid. Rate-sensitive sectors get a window. Homebuilders are the most direct test. Lennar guided lower last night. If the sector can hold that news into a deal-hope tape, it signals the rate relief trade is forming even before yields move. |
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WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED MARKETS |
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Two forces hit at once. One got ignored. |
The Iran reversal came first. Trump went from bombing to cancelling strikes to announcing a deal framework in under 24 hours. Oil fell sharply to settle below $88. The Strait closure that drove crude up roughly 40 percent since the conflict began may finally have an end date. |
The second force was wholesale inflation. PPI rose more than a full percent in a single month. The annual rate hit its highest since late 2022. Both above what the Street expected. The market didn't care. Iran hope buried it. |
But the Fed meets next week. Pipeline costs from months of elevated oil don't vanish when a deal gets close. The lag means wholesale prices already locked in are still flowing toward the consumer. |
Structural Setup |
If oil breaks below $85 on a signed deal, the Fed's inflation math resets for the second half. If the deal stalls, oil retests the mid-$90s and the PPI print becomes the story the market should have been watching. |
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Chips reversed. Software and housing didn't. |
The SOX had one of its best sessions of the year. The chip complex that bled all week snapped back in one day. Memory, equipment, and processors all ran. Intel's BofA upgrade was the catalyst. The thesis: agentic AI runs on CPUs, not just GPUs. |
AI agents need to execute tasks across operating systems, applications, and devices. That workload favors Intel's architecture over pure GPU compute. If BofA is right, the next leg of the AI hardware cycle has a different leader than the last one. Watch whether Intel holds Friday's gains into next week. That is the specific confirmation. |
Oracle was down sharply on the same session. The market is sorting the AI complex into two groups: chipmakers who supply the demand, and cloud builders who fund it with negative cash flow. |
After the bell, two of three tests came back soft. Adobe (ADBE) beat on revenue and earnings but fell on a margin miss and the exit of its CFO for Marvell. Lennar (LEN) missed on revenue and cut its full-year delivery guide. Housing won't move until yields do. |
Sector Read |
Chip names are trading as peace proxies. If de-escalation holds, the SOX rally extends and Seoul keeps running. Adobe's margin miss and CFO exit keep the "AI eats software" question alive. Watch whether Lennar's guide-down pulls the rest of the builders at the open. |
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Porter Stansberry: This Could Be Bigger Than A Stock Crash or Financial Collapse |
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SpaceX absorbs $75 billion. |
SpaceX (SPCX) starts trading today on the Nasdaq. It priced at $135 per share. The $75 billion raise is the largest IPO in history. The valuation lands at $1.77 trillion. |
The timing is loaded. This listing arrives the same week Oracle went deeply negative on cash flow and raised $40 billion. The AI capital cycle is speeding up at the same moment the market punishes companies that spend more than they earn. Its Starlink unit is profitable. The broader space infrastructure buildout is not. |
Watch Signal |
If SpaceX holds above $135 and volume clears smoothly, the capital formation cycle is intact. The window stays open for Anthropic, OpenAI, and the next wave. If it breaks its price, the market is saying $1.77 trillion is too much for one day. |
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Seoul's four-day circuit breaker. |
On Monday, the KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker to the downside. Only the ninth time in its history. Today it triggered one to the upside. Four trading days. Samsung swung from a deep rout to a double-digit gain in one morning. |
The KOSPI has roughly doubled this year. Nearly all of it came from two stocks. Goldman raised its target on the index. But BTIG flagged breadth: it was negative on every one of the recent rally sessions. The same structure that doubles an index in six months also produces circuit breakers in both directions in the same week. |
The Read |
If de-escalation holds and chip demand stays firm, Seoul keeps running. Samsung and SK Hynix carry the index. But when two stocks drive the entire market, the exit door is one stock wide. The test is whether foreign flows, which turned net seller at the week's peak, reverse on today's gap up. |
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Middle East Conflict Lights Fuse on US Debt Bomb |
America was already drowning in $38 trillion of debt, but the recent conflict in the Middle East just accelerated the timeline. |
As oil spikes, a 100-year-old stock market signal that accurately predicted the 2008 and 2020 crashes is flashing a massive "Sell" on dozens of popular U.S. equities. |
If you hold the wrong stocks when this debt crisis hits, it could wipe out years of gains. |
Click here to see the 10 popular stocks to dump immediately |
11780 US Highway 1, Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33408-3080 Would you like to edit your e-mail notification preferences or unsubscribe from our mailing list? Copyright © 2026 Weiss Ratings. All rights reserved. |
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Economic Data: Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Earnings: No notable reports |
Events: SpaceX (SPCX) Nasdaq debut |
Overnight: Nikkei +2.81%, Shanghai Composite +1.12% FTSE +1.07%, DAX +1.60% |
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SpaceX starts trading today. Michigan sentiment prints at 10am. And Trump says a deal with Iran could be signed this weekend. |
If SpaceX holds above $135 and Michigan shows sentiment lifting off its record lows, the market ends the week pricing peace and growth at the same time. That's the bull case for the second half. |
If SpaceX breaks its price and Michigan prints another collapse in confidence, today told a different story. The market rallied on a headline. The consumer didn't feel it. And the largest IPO in history asked for $75 billion on the same week the AI complex proved it can't fund itself. |
The answer lands today. The weekend decides the rest. |
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