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Source: Reuters |
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Reminder of their historical ties |
China and North Korea have longtime ties. They both share the communist ideology. In the early 20th century, future senior officials of North Korea were part of the Chinese Communist Party. These officials included the founding father of the Kim dynasty in power in North Korea. |
Official diplomatic relations dates to 1949. Only a year later, China intervened in the Korean War. It helped by sending thousands of soldiers to help North Korea. They were supposed to be volunteers and not members of the state’s army. China played a double game. On the one hand, it wanted to support North Korea and help the regime survive. On the other, it did not want to alter its relations with the U.S. |
In 1961, the states signed a mutual aid and cooperation treaty. It is the only defense pact that China has with any nation. It was also the case for North Korea for a long time. But then Russia exerted its influence too. |
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Economic ties |
China has long been North Korea’s main economic lifeline. Since the USSR collapsed, North Korea has relied heavily on China. Indeed, China is by far North Korea’s largest trading partner. More than 90% of its imports come from China. These imports include: |
Oil Food Machinery Consumer goods
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China is also a key investor in North Korea’s mining and metallurgy industries. These industries produce steel, iron, copper, coal, and rare earths. |
Plus, North Korea benefits from China’s foreign aid. Indeed, half of the state’s foreign aid goes to North Korea. |
On the other hand, China’s imports from North Korea are very limited. They only include few minerals and marine products. Most of the trade between them goes through the port of Dandong. |
Ups and downs |
There have been periods when their relations cooled. These include the Sino-soviet split and the cultural revolution in China. When China began reforms and opening in the 80’s their relations also took a hit. |
But the biggest sources of tensions were around the nuclear issue and China’s relation with South Korea. In the 70’s, China refused a plan to reinvade South Korea. In the 90’s, it also normalized its relations with the latter. China used to consider North Korea as the sole Korean nation. Establishing relations with the South changed that. For North Korea it felt like betrayal. |
The nuclear question also opposed them. For a long time, China aligned with the West on that matter. It wished to denuclearize North Korea. It condemned nuclear tests. It also abstained during votes at the UN on sanctions for North Korea, despite having the veto power. |
Russia stepping in |
A key change in recent years has been North Korea’s growing relations with Russia. Since 2024, they strengthened their ties. They signed a military cooperation and strategic partnership deal. North Korea supplied Russia with military material and troops in the war with Ukraine. In return, Russia supplied oil, food, and technologies to North Korea. This greatly helped the latter’s economic revival. |
This growing partnership raised questions about China’s influence over North Korea. The latter now has more support options. |
China seeks to reassert its influence |
China visited North Korea earlier this week. It is the first visit in 7 years. It has several goals. But the main one was to reaffirm its position as North Korea’s primary partner. China said it is ready to expand cooperation in many sectors. These include: |
Trade Agriculture Construction Science Technology Healthcare
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It also wants to bolster strategic cooperation by strengthening military, diplomatic and law enforcement exchanges. The outcome of this visit is more concrete than the past one seven years ago. |
Also, for once, China did not mention its support for denuclearization. Its foreign minister declared the state’s position is unchanged. But the fact that Xi Xinping did not mention did not go unnoticed. It is likely part of China’s strategy to reassert its influence by subtly avoiding this sensitive subject and not offending its neighbor. Indeed, before the visit, Kim Jong Un’s sister vowed that her country would never give up nuclear weapons. This visit further confirmed that despite its efforts over the decades, China has limited influence on its neighbor’s nuclear program. |
There are many reasons why China still supports North Korea. It seeks stability in the Korean peninsula. Even though the regime is unpredictable, China still wants to preserve it. China needs a buffer state between its territory and US-allied South Korea. If the regime fell, Korea could be unified and fall under US influence. Plus, China also needs allies to counter the US-Japan-South Korea axis. |
Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival. |
Joy |
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