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Source: AI-generated |
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Few facts about Armenia |
Armenia is a landlocked state in the Caucasus region. It has about 3 million people. It is bordered by Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. It was part of the USSR until its collapse. Since then, the state was drawn into deadly conflicts with Azerbaijan. They were both part of the USSR. Due to the “divide and rule” policy some parts of one republic were given over to other. In this case it was the Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhichevan region. The last war happened 3 years ago. Many Armenians were expulsed from their home in Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan. |
Armenia is rich in mineral resources. It has more than 670 mines. These resources include iron, zinc, aluminum, copper, molybdenum, gold, lead, silvery and antimony. The state owns some of the world’s most diverse non-metallic minerals. These include tuff, marble, perlite, etc. It also owns industrial minerals like cement or limestone. The mining industry is key to Armenia’ economy. |
Great powers show interest in Armenia. Russia, the EU, and U.S. try to exert influence on the state. It increases as parliamentary elections are to be held on June 7th . |
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Russia’s influence and threats |
Armenia was a longtime ally of Russia. But their relations cooled. The turning point was the latest war with Azerbaijan. Armenia criticized Russia and the CSTO security alliance. They did not fulfill their commitments to defend Armenia. Since then, the latter has been seeking to diversify its partnerships. It expanded ties with the EU and U.S. |
Russia does not like this shift. It sees it as another attempt from the West to weaken its influence in former Soviet states. Russia has been active in trying to influence the elections. It also warned Armenia that getting closer to the EU could lead to a Ukraine-like scenario. Russia did not issue direct threats of war though. |
Putin also said Armenia could lose access to discounted Russian oil and gas. It could also lose the advantages it gets from the Eurasian Economic Union. This union provides free movement of goods and services. All this could result in a 14% loss for Armenia’s GDP. |
A shift toward the West |
Armenia’s PM has pursued closer ties with the West. |
EU. Armenia passed a law last year to launch its accession process to the EU. It has not formally applied. Nor was it granted the candidate status. But there are talks on the roadmap for future integration. This shows Armenia is moving toward Europe. On top of that, it hosted a high-profile EU summit last month. It was the first one ever. The summit focused on strengthening ties in some sectors like energy, transport and digital. The new EU-Armenia connectivity partnership was launched. It focused on transport corridors, energy links, digital infrastructures, and foreign investment attraction. |
U.S. Last year, Trump brokered a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The deal included a new trade and transit corridor. It will be named Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). It will link Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan. The corridor is expected to include a rail line, oil and gas lines, and fiber optic lines. It would allow for the movement of goods and boost trades. The U.S. will have exclusive developments rights. |
Plus, Armenia also plays a key role in U.S. strategy to reduce dependence on China. Indeed, the U.S. seek to access resources and minerals in the region. In May, the U.S. and Armenia renewed a broad strategic partnership and a framework deal on critical minerals. |
Armenia’s PM also benefits from U.S. support. Ahead of the elections, Trump publicly endorsed him. The U.S. also showed support for Armenia’s Western integration efforts. |
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A few days ahead of the elections, polls project the pro-EU PM’s party to win by a large majority. If the votes confirm the poll’s projections, Armenia will likely solidify its strategic realignment toward the West. And at the same time its shift away from Russia. While this dynamic could benefit Armenia, it will also bring challenges. Indeed, Armenia relies a lot on Russia’s oil and gas. Last year, 80% of its gas was imported from Russia. The energy and trade consequences will be key challenges Armenia will have to tackle. |
Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival. |
Joy |
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