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This Month's Featured Article
On Holdings Sets Up for Marathon Rally: New Highs Are ComingAuthor: Thomas Hughes. Posted: 5/12/2026. 
Key Points
- High-quality On Holdings is setting up for a marathon run that could take its stock price up by triple digits over the long term.
- Growth and operational quality underpin the outlook, with forward estimates suggesting the price can increase by several multiples.
- Institutions are accumulating shares and limiting downside risk in Q2.
- Special Report: The Biggest IPO Ever: Claim Your Stake Today
On Holdings’ (NYSE: ONON) share price faces several headwinds, including macroeconomic pressures, a surprise CEO change, FX conversion, and slowing growth. However, much of that is already priced into the market. Even with those challenges, the company continues to perform well, sustaining a strong growth rate and widening margins in a market with plenty of share still up for grabs. Its biggest competitor is Nike (NYSE: NKE), and Nike remains a long way from reclaiming its lost glory. For ONON investors, the key takeaway is that the stock trades at a significant discount to its outlook, an outlook that was boosted by its May guidance update. That suggests triple-digit upside for patient investors. ONON Stock Poised for Significant Near-Term Upside
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There is also a substantial near- to mid-term opportunity. The company not only trades at a discount to its forward outlook—which may still be conservative—but also to its competitor, pointing to both near-term multiple expansion and long-term upside. Additionally, analysts remain committed to the name, providing a solid support base for share accumulation. Data tracked by MarketBeat shows 19 current ratings, a Moderate Buy consensus, and a 79% Buy-side bias. The price target was updated following the Q1 2026 earnings report and still implies more than 70% upside from the critical support level. As it stands, the price target has remained steady on a trailing 12-month basis (TTM) and is unlikely to change materially without a shift in the outlook. The critical support level is near April lows, just below $32, and may be tested. 
Institutional data suggest that support at the critical level is strong and that a rebound from there is likely. Institutions own only 37% of the stock, but they have been aggressively accumulating it over the TTM. The data show buying at nearly a $2-to-$1 pace, with activity ramping sequentially to a record high in Q1 2026. The pace remained bullish in early Q2 and will likely stay that way given the value proposition. The biggest risk on the sell side is insiders, but even that is not alarming. Ex-CEO Martin Hoffmann is exiting his stake as part of a prearranged plan tied to his departure; aside from that, insiders, including the founders/co-CEOs, hold a significant stake and are not selling. On Holdings Raises Profit Guidance After Hot QuarterOn Holdings had a solid Q1 report, with revenue growing 14.5% year over year (YOY) and 26.4% on a forex-neutral (FXN) basis, with strength across all channels, geographies, and product lines. DTC, the higher-margin segment, grew 16.4% and 28.7% FXN, while Wholesale grew 13.3% and 25.1% FXN, with both segments underpinned by strength in Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Apparel. Regionally, APAC led with gains of 44.4% and 61.4%, followed by a 25.6% FXN increase in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and a 13.3% FXN gain in the Americas. Among product categories, the core shoe segment grew 12.2%, or 24% FXN, while Apparel grew 57.5% FXN to 20% of the business, and Accessories grew 86.6%. Margin news was also strong. The company posted improvements at the gross, EBITDA, and net income levels on both a GAAP and adjusted basis. GAAP and adjusted earnings increased by 82% and 76%, respectively, both ahead of consensus and reflecting the impact of Q1 strength on the outlook. The company cited operational strength and execution as drivers of margin improvement, reaffirmed its revenue forecast, and raised its full-year margin outlook. Executives now expect an adjusted EBITDA margin in the 19.5% to 20% range, a full 100 basis points better than the previous guide. The revenue outlook is likely cautious, but even so, it still points to a year-over-year slowdown in growth followed by sequential acceleration into year-end. On Holdings: A Solid Brand With Catalysts AheadWhile the company’s headwinds are unlikely to fade, including uncertainty and tariff-related cost pressures, catalysts remain in place to drive outperformance. These include strength in DTC, APAC, and Apparel, as well as the LightSpray innovation. It enables rapid, wasteless, automated shoe construction, paving the way for significant margin improvement and operating efficiencies. A robotic arm sprays a mile-long filament onto a shoe mold, which instantly hardens into a laceless upper. The strength of On Holdings' business and brand is reflected in its balance sheet. The company increased cash, working capital, current assets, and total assets while reducing total liabilities. Equity improved by 8.5% on a year-to-date basis and will likely continue to rise as the year progresses. |
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