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This Week's Featured Article
Freeport Tanks Again on Mine Delay—Long Term Outlook Stays StrongReported by Leo Miller. Article Published: 4/30/2026. 
Key Points
- Copper miner Freeport McMoRan put up big returns in 2025, recovering from a natural disaster at a key mine.
- Freeport posted strong beats in its latest earnings report, but newfound issues at this same mine caused shares to tank.
- Despite near-term headwinds, the structural setup for copper is positive, supporting Freeport's outlook.
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For copper mining giant Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), 2025 proved to be a very strong year. The stock delivered a total return of more than 35%, its best annual performance since 2021. That outperformance came despite a disaster at the company’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, where a mudslide claimed several lives and has left the mine facing operational challenges in the near term. In September 2025, Freeport significantly cut its guidance because of the mudslide, and shares plunged more than 20% in two days to roughly $35. The stock later staged a large recovery, briefly rising above $70 in April 2026.
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However, Freeport’s most recent earnings report showed the re-commencement of operations at Grasberg is encountering setbacks. As a result, shares are now down more than 15% from their highs. Looking ahead, long-term demand for copper continues to underpin Freeport’s outlook, but investors should not overlook its operational risks. Freeport Beats as Production Exceeds Expectations, Prices RiseIn its latest quarter, Freeport reported revenues of $6.23 billion, up nearly 9% year over year (YOY). That exceeded estimates of $5.73 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose 138% YOY to $0.57, beating estimates by $0.10. The company sold more metal in Q1 than previously anticipated. Freeport sold 657 million pounds of copper, 121,000 ounces of gold and 24 million pounds of molybdenum. This compares with prior guidance of 640 million pounds of copper, 60,000 ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum. Notably, average realized prices rose substantially versus Q4 2025. Realized Metals Prices and Change Versus Q4 2025
Copper = $5.78 per pound, an 8% increase. Gold = $4,889 per ounce, a 20% increase. Molybdenum = $25.21 per pound, an 11% increase. Despite these positives, investors focused on delays and reduced forecasts at Grasberg, which contributed to the recent pullback in shares. Freeport Cuts Grasberg Forecasts as Wet Material AccumulatesPreviously, Freeport expected its Indonesian operations to reach about 85% of capacity by the second half of 2026. The company has now reduced that forecast to roughly 65%. From 2026 through 2030, Freeport now expects Grasberg to produce about 6.9 billion pounds of copper in total, roughly 9% below earlier estimates. Gold production over that period is forecast at 5.6 million ounces, about 7% lower than prior estimates. Management said ore in parts of the Grasberg complex became wetter than expected. Grasberg sits in a rainforest, one of the wettest environments on Earth. Under normal operations Freeport has the technology to manage wetter ore, but the prolonged halt allowed moisture to accumulate, making material harder to load into railcars. The company must install specialized equipment to operate efficiently under these conditions, and that installation is the primary reason for the delayed timeline. Supply and Demand Outlook for Copper Supports Freeport Long-TermThere was some good news amid the delays. Freeport says the lost production through 2030 is recoverable over a longer period, and the required modifications are expected to cost only about $60 million to $70 million. That amount is small compared with the company’s planned capital expenditures of $8.8 billion for 2026 and 2027 combined. In short, lost time — rather than significantly higher costs — is the main issue from the Grasberg delay. Long-term demand trends should help Freeport make up for shortfalls. S&P Global estimates copper demand will rise by about 50% between now and 2040. That projection reflects several drivers, including general economic growth and the global shift to electrification. More construction and appliance use increases demand for copper in electrical systems, and electric vehicles use roughly 2.9 times more copper than conventional vehicles. Bringing new copper supply online is also slow and costly — S&P Global estimates developing a new mining project takes an average of 17 years. Higher demand combined with long lead times for new supply supports stronger copper prices over the long term and, by extension, Freeport’s long-term case. The delay at Grasberg is a reminder of the operational risks in mining — natural events can severely disrupt production. Still, Wall Street analysts remain broadly positive on the stock for the next 12 months. The MarketBeat consensus price near $65 implies roughly 15% upside from current levels; the average target price updated after the company’s earnings report is slightly higher, at $66.60. |
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