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Nebius Group Is Trading Near All-Time Highs, Here's How Far It Has ComeAuthor: Ryan Hasson. Date Posted: 4/20/2026. 
Key Points
- From slim analyst coverage and $120M in annualized revenue in late 2024, NBIS now trades near all-time highs with a $41B market cap, up over 680% in the past year.
- NVIDIA's $2 billion investment, a $27 billion Meta contract, and a $19.4 billion Microsoft commitment represent roughly $46 billion in committed revenue.
- Fourteen analysts now cover the stock, with 2026 revenue guidance of $3 to $3.4 billion and an ARR target of $7 to $9 billion.
- Special Report: The Biggest IPO Ever: Claim Your Stake Today
When MarketBeat first began writing about Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) in December 2024, the company was described as one of the most exciting small-cap plays in the AI infrastructure space. At the time, the stock had just surged nearly 45% in a single week after a $700 million private placement involving NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Accel. Revenue was running at an annualized rate of $120 million, the company had little formal analyst coverage, and forward guidance — projecting an annualized revenue run rate of $750 million to $1 billion by the end of 2025 — was seen as ambitious by some. Today, Nebius is trading near its all-time high above $160, is up over 600% in the past year, and has a market cap of about $40 billion. The ambition was justified. From Small-Cap Speculation to AI Infrastructure Leader
The transformation in less than two years has been remarkable. When MarketBeat first covered Nebius, it had minimal analyst coverage, a small revenue base, and a compelling but largely unproven thesis. The bull case rested on the AI infrastructure buildout and global adoption, NVIDIA's backing, the scale of the opportunity, and management's track record building large-scale technology operations. That thesis has since materialized. Annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.25 billion by year-end 2025, up 127% quarter over quarter and well ahead of the original guidance. Full-year 2025 revenue surpassed $500 million. Management reiterated its 2026 ARR target of $7 billion to $9 billion, set 2026 revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, and raised contracted power guidance from over 2.5 gigawatts to more than 3 gigawatts. The scale of that progress compared with where the company stood roughly 16 months ago is difficult to overstate. Nebius is no longer a small-cap speculation; it has become a large-cap AI infrastructure compounder with a sizeable pipeline that management describes as exceeding $4 billion. Recent Catalysts Driving the Stock to All-Time HighsThe stock's rise to record levels has been driven by several landmark developments in recent months. In March, NVIDIA announced a $2 billion strategic investment in Nebius — a substantially larger commitment than the initial $700 million placement. That same month, Nebius announced what management called the largest contract in company history: a $27 billion deal with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) for dedicated AI compute capacity over five years. Nebius also secured a major agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), with the hyperscaler committing up to $19.4 billion for GPU compute from Nebius's New Jersey data center. Together, those three deals represent roughly $46 billion in committed and contracted revenue — a staggering sum for a company that was generating an annualized $120 million just over a year earlier. Analysts Have Taken NoticeAs the market has re-priced the stock, analyst coverage has expanded. A year ago, only two analysts covered Nebius; now the coverage picture is very different. Fourteen analysts now cover Nebius, and sentiment remains generally bullish despite the stock's run. NBIS carries a consensus Moderate Buy rating, though the consensus price target of $154.75 suggests the shares are fairly valued at current levels. Coverage now includes many of the street’s largest firms, such as Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. Nebius Didn't Disappoint — But What Comes Next?For readers who first learned of Nebius from MarketBeat in late 2024, the company has largely delivered on the early promise. The NVIDIA relationship deepened into a $2 billion strategic investment, revenue growth has outpaced the most ambitious early projections, and Nebius signed contracts with some of the world's largest technology companies and hyperscalers. Nebius is no longer an overlooked small-cap. It is one of the most closely watched AI infrastructure names in the market. With 2026 revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion and a growing backlog, the fundamental momentum appears intact. Whether the current valuation fully reflects that momentum is a question each investor must answer for themselves. |
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