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Just For You
Bitcoin and Big Tech Rally as Risk Appetite Returns, Even With Ceasefire UncertaintyReported by Jessica Mitacek. Published: 4/21/2026. 
Key Points
- The ceasefire between the United States and Iran has the potential to reverse the flight to safety that began late last year, sparking a significant rebound in previously battered sectors like tech and crypto.
- Bitcoin has established support at $70,000, bolstered by massive institutional inflows into spot ETFs. Short interest in major funds like IBIT has plummeted, signaling a shift from retail uncertainty to institutional accumulation.
- Tech stocks and data center infrastructure providers are seeing double-digit gains from recent lows, with improved valuations and bullish technical reversals bolstering the argument that a bottom could be in for tech.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
From volatility in short interest and surging oil prices to sudden shortages of helium and fertilizers, the conflict in the Middle East has upended a number of markets. The fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced on April 7, helped restore a tentative sense of optimism. The result has been a rally in many of the stocks, sectors, and asset classes that bore the brunt of last year’s flight to safety. In recent days, however, the picture has become more complicated as talks appeared to wobble ahead of the ceasefire’s expected expiration tonight.
The mainstream explanation for the Iran airstrikes may not be the full story. Addison Wiggin, Founder of Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, says there's a deeper motive behind the bombing campaign that most coverage is ignoring.
If you're making investment decisions based on what you're hearing in the news, Wiggin argues you could be working with an incomplete picture. Read Addison Wiggin's full breakdown of the real Iran story
How long the rally—or the ceasefire—will last remains uncertain. But for investors seeking signs of a potential bottom in high-risk, high-reward assets, these developments could indicate that oversold tech stocks and volatile crypto prices are poised for a more sustained rebound. Risk-on Assets Are Broadly RallyingTake Bitcoin (BTC), for example. It's up roughly 7% over the past 30 days after a painful six-month decline. In equities, the sudden influx of risk-on sentiment has revived one of this year’s worst-performing sectors. Over the past five trading sessions, tech—which remains down on the year—has led the S&P 500’s 11 sectors with a gain of nearly 5%. At the individual-stock level, the move has been even more pronounced. Four members of the Magnificent Seven posted market-beating gains over the past week. For NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), that momentum predates the ceasefire. Since its one-month low, the semiconductor powerhouse is up more than 20%. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) have also outperformed, rising roughly 25%, 26%, and 31% from their respective one-month lows. Follow the Money: Surge in Bitcoin Inflows Suggests Renewed DemandA recent resurgence of interest in Bitcoin-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) supports that thesis. In the week ending April 10, Bitcoin-focused products took in $871 million—the strongest weekly total since early January, according to CoinShares. Unlike earlier rallies driven by retail traders, these flows point to sizable bets from institutional investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have particularly benefited from institutional buying; some funds saw more than $470 million in daily inflows. That signals a shift from retail-driven activity to institutional accumulation. Bitcoin remains more than 40% below its Oct. 6, 2025, high, underscoring how quickly risk appetite can swing. Short interest in the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT)—the largest spot Bitcoin ETF with over $60 billion in assets under management—has also declined sharply. As of March 31, just 0.95% of the fund's float was shorted (about $503 million), down nearly 29% from the previous month. For context, in November 2025, $1.33 billion worth of IBIT was shorted—the most in the fund’s two-year history. Tech Follows Suit as Investors’ Risk Appetite MountsBeyond the bounce in the Magnificent Seven, lesser-known tech names are catching up. Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD), which provides large-scale digital infrastructure for data centers and Bitcoin mining, has gained more than 50% from its one-month low on March 30. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) has seen a similar rebound, benefiting from an ongoing shortage in memory chips. MU is up more than 40% from its late-March low as investors focus on memory demand tied to AI infrastructure. Broad, tech-heavy index ETFs—which were oversold as recently as late March—have seen their Relative Strength Indexes (RSI) recover, triggering bullish price reversals. For example, backed by an index-weighted portfolio of top sector names, the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQM) has gained nearly 11% from its year-to-date low. There’s an ETF for ThatBoth tech and Bitcoin remain down year-to-date, with Bitcoin still showing double-digit losses. But investors who want to cautiously re-enter risk-on assets can do so through a variety of ETFs. Whether it’s the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, a NASDAQ-100 fund, an ETF offering targeted exposure to the Magnificent Seven, or a basket designed to capitalize on the memory-chip shortage, there are numerous ETFs that can help reintroduce higher-volatility equities to portfolios while investors wait to see if the current trend endures. |
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